Bush's Job Growth WORST in 50 Years (Roll out the red carpet for this “staunch Bush supporter.”)

Bush’s giant Right Wing Noise Machine (RWNM) loves to preach about the Bush economic miracle. In fact, the RWNM’s current thinking is Bush doesn’t spend enough time talking about his economic triumphs. If only he did, then everyone would fall in line and believe in the great Bush economic miracle. There is one problem with this argument: it’s a lie. Any way you look at the Bush economy, it comes up short. Today, I want to compare Bush’s job creation record with other economic recoveries. As usual, Bush comes up way short.

The national Bureau of Economic Research has identified 8 recessions since May 1954. For comparison purposed, I only used 5 of these periods because they are longer than the current expansion. Next, I used the total nonfarm employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). I measured the jobs created from the trough (lowest point) to the next identified highest economic point. (The NBER states a “peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession.”) I compared the total number jobs created for the entire expansion as well as the total number of jobs created 49 months into the expansion (According to the NBER, the lowest point of the last trough was in November 2001, making December 2005 the 49th month of this expansion). Here’s how the numbers (in millions) compare.

The expansion of 2/61 – 12/69 created 17,684 total jobs and 6,244 at 49 months.

The expansion of 3/75 – 7/80 created 13,183 total jobs and 12,831 at 49 months.

The expansion of 11/82 – 7/90 created 21,003 total jobs and 11,510 at 49 months.

The expansion of 3/91 – 3/01 created 23,969 total jobs and 8,266 at 49 months.

The current expansion which started in November 2001 has created a total of 3,410 jobs.

In other words, at 49 months into an expansion, Bush’s job creation record is last. While we don’t know when this expansion will end, the Bush economy would have to triple the total number of jobs created in order to get to 4th place on this list.

What’s going on here? The basic problem is some areas of the economy are creating jobs. The BLS tracks 13 different job sectors. 7 (a little over half) have created jobs since November 2001 – natural resources/mining (37,000), construction (539,000), financial (550,000), professional services (238,000), education/health (2.1 million), leisure/hospitality (803,000) and governmental employees (1 million). Of all the jobs created three areas – government, education/health account for 57% of job growth. Of the jobs created outside of education, health and governmental employees (2,167,000), construction, professional services and financial services account for about 60% of the jobs created. Real estate is obviously related to all of these areas. Construction is obviously related to real estate, as are financial services (mortgage lending etc…) and professional services (real estate agents, appraisers etc…) So, real estate, governmental employees and health/education jobs are doing just fine.

6 areas – a little under half of the sectors the BLS tracks – have had a net loss in number of jobs: manufacturing (-2,800,000), information (-565,000), trade/transport/utilities (-353), whole sales trade (-107), retail (-157), and transportation/warehousing (67,000). Manufacturing and information are obviously the two biggest areas of job losses. Some of the information service jobs are the result of natural attrition from Y2K. However, I somehow doubt that is the only reason for the losses. While there is no information regarding outsourcing losses (because the government does not keep any statistics on the subject), I fell safe in assuming outsourcing is a big factor involved in the losses.

In summation, sum people are doing well. They can find jobs and are probably financially somewhat secure. However, others have seen their jobs literally disappear overnight and are hurting to find new jobs that pay commensurate levels. These people are hurting from the current “expansion”. Of course, Bush and the RWNM has forgotten about them.

It is really easy to refute.

There was technically no recession in 2001. There was only one period of negative growth which turned out to have a very shallow bottom and reversed itself to positive growth soon after.

The consequences of 9/11 and the widespread economic problems caused by the collapse of the Internet bubble led to massive inertia preventing any kind of rapid resurgence in the American economy.

The situations the author is trying to draw similarities between with the Bush administration's record are not really all that similar. Most of the important economic considerations are radically different, and the challenges faced were more than just significantly different. They were astronomically different, and still are.

Superficial similarities are easy to point to and spread around, but anybody with half a brain and a little bit of knowledge can recognize a poorly constructed argument intended to suck in people who want to believe the message so badly they'll ignore the inconsistencies.

Besides the really bad numbers (in millions, how many 'billion' jobs created?), poor knowledge of macro economics, and questionable source, the statistics don't account for multiple items including growth potential (if unemployment is low, there are not people to fill newly created jobs), population growth factors are also not accounted for (how many people entering the workforce versus leaving (retirement)).

This article strikes me as someone trying to play on the ignorance of most in terms of economics and statistics by simply putting out a couple of numbers to tell the story they want. The problem is you can prove anything with BLS stats if taken out of context or only given a small glimpse.

This article is full of crap.

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Data extracted on: January 3, 2006 (11:46:50 AM)

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Series Id: LNS12035019 Seasonal Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level - Nonagricultural Industries Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Industry: Nonagriculture industries (0369-9590 & 9890)
1991	114732	114485	114475	114868	114165	114339	114249	114171	114609	114511	114474	114320
1992	114823	114514	114908	115181	115162	115122	115428	115547	115446	115374	115669	115738
1993	115853	116150	116423	116400	117015	117182	117341	117830	117380	117739	118012	118348
1994	118664	118747	118576	118862	119455	119335	119373	119891	120257	120622	120942	121144
1995	121144	121308	121321	121379	121072	121061	121437	121478	121848	121950	121850	121736
1996	121642	122092	122373	122588	122771	123178	123514	123777	124088	124427	124415	124415
1997	124849	124945	125472	125681	126027	126003	126400	126651	126627	126867	127267	127274
1998	127389	127522	127650	127852	127959	127874	127913	127970	128399	128389	128897	129320
1999	129802	129647	129656	129615	129937	129982	130146	130366	130434	130758	130989	131257
2000	133863	133912	134022	134806	134144	134528	134196	134311	134489	134808	134921	135194
2001	135323	135273	135362	135028	134745	134758	134810	133964	134577	134116	133966	133755
2002	133256	134084	133782	133830	134299	134137	134023	134627	135143	134627	134196	134082
2003	135059	135218	135160	135537	135389	135418	135138	135262	135426	135668	136068	136172
2004	136234	136191	136192	136427	136565	136751	137257	137321	137460	137764	138068	137973
2005	138112	138005	138293	138869	139294	139237	139668	140345	140461	140629	140413

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