Bush's Job Growth WORST in 50 Years (Roll out the red carpet for this “staunch Bush supporter.”)

Bush’s giant Right Wing Noise Machine (RWNM) loves to preach about the Bush economic miracle. In fact, the RWNM’s current thinking is Bush doesn’t spend enough time talking about his economic triumphs. If only he did, then everyone would fall in line and believe in the great Bush economic miracle. There is one problem with this argument: it’s a lie. Any way you look at the Bush economy, it comes up short. Today, I want to compare Bush’s job creation record with other economic recoveries. As usual, Bush comes up way short.

The national Bureau of Economic Research has identified 8 recessions since May 1954. For comparison purposed, I only used 5 of these periods because they are longer than the current expansion. Next, I used the total nonfarm employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). I measured the jobs created from the trough (lowest point) to the next identified highest economic point. (The NBER states a “peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession.”) I compared the total number jobs created for the entire expansion as well as the total number of jobs created 49 months into the expansion (According to the NBER, the lowest point of the last trough was in November 2001, making December 2005 the 49th month of this expansion). Here’s how the numbers (in millions) compare.

The expansion of 2/61 – 12/69 created 17,684 total jobs and 6,244 at 49 months.

The expansion of 3/75 – 7/80 created 13,183 total jobs and 12,831 at 49 months.

The expansion of 11/82 – 7/90 created 21,003 total jobs and 11,510 at 49 months.

The expansion of 3/91 – 3/01 created 23,969 total jobs and 8,266 at 49 months.

The current expansion which started in November 2001 has created a total of 3,410 jobs.

In other words, at 49 months into an expansion, Bush’s job creation record is last. While we don’t know when this expansion will end, the Bush economy would have to triple the total number of jobs created in order to get to 4th place on this list.

What’s going on here? The basic problem is some areas of the economy are creating jobs. The BLS tracks 13 different job sectors. 7 (a little over half) have created jobs since November 2001 – natural resources/mining (37,000), construction (539,000), financial (550,000), professional services (238,000), education/health (2.1 million), leisure/hospitality (803,000) and governmental employees (1 million). Of all the jobs created three areas – government, education/health account for 57% of job growth. Of the jobs created outside of education, health and governmental employees (2,167,000), construction, professional services and financial services account for about 60% of the jobs created. Real estate is obviously related to all of these areas. Construction is obviously related to real estate, as are financial services (mortgage lending etc…) and professional services (real estate agents, appraisers etc…) So, real estate, governmental employees and health/education jobs are doing just fine.

6 areas – a little under half of the sectors the BLS tracks – have had a net loss in number of jobs: manufacturing (-2,800,000), information (-565,000), trade/transport/utilities (-353), whole sales trade (-107), retail (-157), and transportation/warehousing (67,000). Manufacturing and information are obviously the two biggest areas of job losses. Some of the information service jobs are the result of natural attrition from Y2K. However, I somehow doubt that is the only reason for the losses. While there is no information regarding outsourcing losses (because the government does not keep any statistics on the subject), I fell safe in assuming outsourcing is a big factor involved in the losses.

In summation, sum people are doing well. They can find jobs and are probably financially somewhat secure. However, others have seen their jobs literally disappear overnight and are hurting to find new jobs that pay commensurate levels. These people are hurting from the current “expansion”. Of course, Bush and the RWNM has forgotten about them.

Find a realistic job creation index that measures the growth of jobs created by people starting their own businesses or working as independent contractors, or otherwise choosing to be entrepreneurs and work for themselves.

Then, get back to us.

I don't understand the jargon here. Does anybody have a direct response to this?

Obviously, there are a lot of things you don't understand. I doubt any direct responses here will help you much because you're just not very bright.

Care to include the starting and ending Unemployment rate for those? It is a lot easier to go from 8-12% to 6% than go from 6% to 5% so naturally more jobs will be created in the first expansion part than the 2nd as the Unemployment Rate is already a lot lower. In other words, job saturation was already a lot higher in 2001 than the other periods.

However, others have seen their jobs literally disappear overnight and are hurting to find new jobs that pay commensurate levels.

Uh...yeah. The buggy whip, chimney sweeping and ice delivery industries have been hit very hard.

Um, I'm home with the flu but let me give this a try. I think you're confusing an expansion with a recovery. I've never once heard the Bush years referred to as an expansion. If we've expanded 7% since 9-11 and the boom-bust Clinton years I'd consider that a miracle.

Finally, I find the best indicator is, what is going on with me, my family and friends. Anyone out there unemployed? No. Anyone out there unable to find desirable work? Nope. Anyone cutting back on spending? No, frugal but spending is still fun. Anyone's real estate values going bust? Heck no. Wait a week and you'll be paying $2,000. more for that home you are looking at.

What is that saying: Figures lie and liars figure? I don't know, it's something like that, I have the flu. I'd rather look around me and I gotta tell you: Nice Recovery George Bush. They all figured we were headed for Armageddon. Oh, excuse me, I meant a Depression.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. "Job creation" is one of the most misleading economic statistics you will find.

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the employment scene today should consider this . . . most economic analysts and demographic experts will tell you that the most pressing issue this country is facing today -- and will continue to face for the foreseeable future -- is a shortage of labor. Qualified employees in any number of skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled positions are so hard to find and retain these days. If you speak coherent English, look presentable and can get to work in a timely manner it is almost impossible to be unemployed for any length of time in this country without trying very hard to be so.

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