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For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call. Then Donald Trump delivered a commanding victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states, and performing unexpectedly well in other places. He is now poised to become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote, and could enter office with a Republican-controlled House and Senate at his back. So were the polls wrong about it being a tight contest? At the national level, they certainly appeared to underestimate Trump for the third election in a row. But...

Just afternoon in Niagara county, New York. Little bit of a rush early on. Now. Only a trickle due to all the early voting that happened over the past week. Couple of notes: Dominion voting machines are in use. The indicators showing that they are currently not hooked up to the internet but one never knows when that can change. More important, it appears the turnout for the election is about 3:00 to 1 female here. Once again, early voting captured most but there are a high number of females voting today. I need to get back in there but...

Veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer — whose stellar track record is currently in question after a bizarre Hawkeye State poll that found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three percentage points — was confused over what “D” and “R” meant in her own cross tabs.While Selzer’s poll has long been viewed as the gold standard in Iowa, her latest presidential poll is turning heads after the bizarre result. If Selzer’s result proves accurate, Iowa would have shifted 11 points to the left in one election cycle, when Trump carried the state by eight percentage points. The poll also found Harris...

The feds will dispatch monitors to polling sites in 27 states on Election Day, the US Department of Justice announced. Nearly a third of the 86 jurisdictions where the department will keep tabs on polling sites are in the nation’s seven most closely watched swing-states. Monitors are set to visit six counties in Michigan, five in Georgia, four each in Wisconsin and Arizona, three apiece in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and one in Nevada on Nov. 5. Republican leaders in other states, including Texas, Missouri and Florida, said they would reject the DOJ request for access to polling sites, according...

It’s obviously a really close race. But for some pollsters, it’s a little too close. Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states. And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and 48 percent of the vote: Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say “well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!”. And since...

Trump leading by three nationally, has led nationally in last four polls in RCP average. I am cautiously optimistic.

“Keep calm and throw it in the average” is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season. The ups and downs that can come from seeing your preferred candidate pingpong back and forth, from day to day, become less stressful when placed into context — even when this presidential election is remarkable for just how little bouncing there has been in the polls on average. To put this year’s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved...

More polling from the Keystone State suggests Donald Trump may avenge his bitter loss four years ago. And the “Trump strength” is even greater than what his numbers show, Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly tells The Post — possibly enough to flip a Democratic Senate seat. Against Kamala Harris in the main event, the former president and recent McDonald’s shift worker is cooking up a victory in Pennsylvania just as he fried up a satchel of potato strips Sunday in Feasterville-Trevose. Trump is up 46% to 43% over the Democratic quasi-incumbent, indicating arches aren’t the only things that are golden...

Private Harris campaign polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris is in a lot of trouble, political analyst Mark Halperin said on The Morning Meeting with Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine. Despite Harris being up three points nationally according to the New York Times poll, Halperin said he sees her support as precarious. While highlighting key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Harris’s polling deteriorated, Halperin explained that the Wall Street Journal reported that Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign shared negative polling with the paper, indicating broader implications for Democratic candidates in Senate races linked to Harris’s performance.

Democrats are now taking on water in Wisconsin. It’s no longer an outlier: Wisconsin is in play, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has hidden from national Democrats, knows this well, too. The national polling is irrelevant here, as her team’s internals show Ms. Baldwin ahead by only two points. The Cook Political Report reclassified the race as a “toss-up,” not the best of news, with less than a month before Election Day. Now, Democrats are scrambling, but this news out of Wisconsin also highlights a brutal part of Kamala Harris’ operation: she flat-out cannot connect with working people....

Polls of the 2020 presidential election were at their collective worst in 40 years. No misfire that year was more striking than CNN’s. Its final poll before the election estimated that Joe Biden held a landslide-size lead of 12 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump. That reading was down from early October 2020, when CNN reported Biden’s advantage stood at 16 points. No polling organization in 2020 reported a greater margin in the presidential race, according to the RealClearPolitics compilation of polls that year. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points.. So far this year, CNN’s polling in the...

Campaign officials are weighing a potential visit by Vice President Kamala Harris to the US-Mexico border while in Arizona on Friday as the campaign tries to close the gap with former President Donald Trump on the issue of immigration, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. Immigration has featured prominently in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats, grappling with years of border crises, have tried to flip the script on Republicans after the GOP blocked a bipartisan border measure earlier this year. Some Harris campaign officials remain concerned about the gap in polling, which shows Trump holding a lead on...

This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina find Donald J. Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three states, with a lead of three points in North Carolina, four points in Georgia and five points in Arizona. In one sense, the finding is very clear: It’s a good set of numbers for Mr. Trump. It’s not necessarily an exceptional one, as Ms. Harris’s easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battlegrounds. But Mr. Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many...

Polling, why is it so bad? Its election cycle, and as you know in this day and age with every poll that comes out and plethora of headlines and stories will be written about it, because polling apparently is now a replacement for news.. and has been for a long long time now during election season. Every new poll will be reported both professionally and among the punditry as either the end of days, or the greatest news ever to come about, depending on where in the political spectrum the pundit lies and whether their candidate is up or down....

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ current national lead over former President Donald Trump is too slim to signal a likely victory in the November election due to the electoral college. Harris’ national lead over Trump grew by just a single point following their debate last week, despite a majority of viewers believing she won, according to ABC News/Ipsos data released on Sunday. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted Harris’ 2.5-point lead in his polling aggregate gives her roughly a 50% chance of winning. “Okay, so basically, you note that 2.5-point lead...

I’m sure there will be a poll or two over the next week talking about a Harris bump but so far Trumps strategy of an RFK endorsement rally and a sit down with Elon has negated any major bump from her convention. Even the Morning Consult poll out today which had Trump ahead for like two weeks this year has it 48-44 for Harris unchanged from last week. In other words she had a chance to put Donald behind the 8 ball with debate negotiations now that is no longer the case as to be honest she needs the debate...

Vice President Kamala Harris has enjoyed a noticeable surge in the polls – particularly national polls – since becoming the Democratic standard bearer, but the rapid shift in her position has left some industry analysts questioning the apparent boost in the formerly quite unpopular vice president’s standing. In her 2020 run, she struggled to break 3% before dropping out, according to The Hill. Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris suffered from decidedly poor approval ratings and Trump initially held the lead over her in a head-to-head matchup. The average quickly flipped, however, in the wake of several surveys showing...

Senator JD Vance (R-OH) said on this week’s broadcast of Fox News Sunday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ poll numbers were “stagnating and leveling off.” Host Shannon Bream asked, “You talk about your message, but is it not landing?” Vance said, “What we have certainly seen is Kamala Harris got a bit of a sugar high a couple weeks ago but what we have actually seen from our own internal data is Kamala Harris has already leveled off. If you talk to insiders in the Kamala Harris campaign they are very worried about where they are.”

It's Thursday, and that means our latest mega 2024 Trump vs. Harris numbers are out. We have all the latest charts and crosstabs, and it looks like our results are quite a bit different than the rest of the industry. That's OK, we're used to it!

According to the polls, the presidential race has tightened since Joe Biden dropped out and anointed Kamala Harris as the Democrats’ nominee. Donald Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just 0.8 points. However, one pollster that still shows Trump with a healthy lead nationally is Rasmussen Reports. Its latest poll, released Thursday, had Trump up five points nationally; however, Trump’s “margin has narrowed, especially when third-party candidates are factored into this year’s election.” Many on the left took to social media to dismiss the poll and label Rasmussen Reports as a "pro-Trump pollster." To get a response...