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Just months into Donald Trump's second term, a new round of polling has delivered a jolt to Democrats, revealing that Trump is more trusted than them in Congress. Why It Matters Recent polls have shown Trump's approval ratings declining and his popularity at an all-time low. Despite this, polls still seem to show that Trump is commanding more trust than his main opposition party. This dynamic not only strengthens Trump's hand as he advances his second-term agenda but also signals a daunting challenge for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms—one that could further erode their influence at both state and...

I posted this because I believe we need to understand the perspectives of the more intelligent Democrats. This video is one of the rare instances where I found Democratic operatives analyzing the election in a meaningful way that was worth hearing. It’s not the usual nonsense soundbite. These are Democrats conducting the kind of examination we’d prefer to avoid if we aim to win in 2028.

President Trump is starting his second term in the White House with a job approval rating ten points higher than at the start of his first presidential term, according to a Quinnipiac(KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. Just over a week after being sworn into office, 46 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 43 percent disapprove and 11 percent did not offer an opinion. In Quinnipiac University's January 26, 2017 national poll, 36 percent approved of the job he was doing, while 44 percent disapproved and 19 percent did not offer an...

Election 2024 is in the rearview mirror. Pollsters won’t be bombarding voters anymore. Today’s entertainment is liberal heads exploding on social media or the latest Democrat threatening but not actually following through on everything from drinking cyanide to setting themselves on fire to leaving the country if Donald Trump won the election. So far, few have followed through on their promises, although a handful have left the country. Good riddance to them. Trump did win, bigly, in a landslide of sorts. He won the Electoral College handily, 312 to 226. Trump also won the popular vote, 49.9% to 48.3%. As...

Most political pollsters aren’t receiving compliments from the public at large about their predictions leading up to the 2024 presidential-election. In fact, many people are questioning why the presidential polls were so off again this year after similar dismal performances in the 2020 and 2016 elections. In 2020, the polls called for President Biden winning by a landslide, but instead Biden won a close race. In 2016, the polls had arguably their most embarrassing performance in modern history, calling for Democratic candidate H.Clinton to win the race by a comfortable margin when in fact this was the case for President-elect...

(CNN — The reaction from Democrats to Donald Trump’s 2024 victory is, to put it mildly, very much unlike their reaction to his 2016 win. Instead of mass protests in the streets, Democrats have been, for the most part, quiet. Indeed, the aftermath of the 2024 election almost looks like it is from a bygone era. This is the first presidential election in at least a decade when pretty much everyone on the losing side has reached the fifth stage of grief: acceptance. Take a look at recent polling from Reuters/Ipsos. When asked whether Trump’s win was legitimate, about 94%...

Every four years, presidential opinion polling reliably causes regime media to misplace their poop. But after the actual polling places close and report, the stenographer journalists generally don’t expose which—if any—of these influential prognosticators should be publicly grilled for fouling up. A current exception proves the rule. On the weekend before Election Day, pollster Ann Selzer unleashed an Iowa survey for the Des Moines Register purporting to show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points in a state Harris supposedly had no business winning. The “late shift toward Harris,” declared the Des Moines Register, was happening because of older...

President-elect Trump was on track to win 400 electoral votes in a head-to-head race against President Biden, according to the White House’s own internal polls. The news was revealed by Jon Favreau, a one-time speechwriter for former President Obama who now hosts the liberal Pod Save America podcast. “Then we find out when the Biden campaign becomes the Harris campaign, that the Biden campaign’s own internal polling at the time when they were telling us he was the strongest candidate, showed that Donald Trump was going to win 400 electoral votes,” Favreau said.

For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call. Then Donald Trump delivered a commanding victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states, and performing unexpectedly well in other places. He is now poised to become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote, and could enter office with a Republican-controlled House and Senate at his back. So were the polls wrong about it being a tight contest? At the national level, they certainly appeared to underestimate Trump for the third election in a row. But...

Just afternoon in Niagara county, New York. Little bit of a rush early on. Now. Only a trickle due to all the early voting that happened over the past week. Couple of notes: Dominion voting machines are in use. The indicators showing that they are currently not hooked up to the internet but one never knows when that can change. More important, it appears the turnout for the election is about 3:00 to 1 female here. Once again, early voting captured most but there are a high number of females voting today. I need to get back in there but...

Veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer — whose stellar track record is currently in question after a bizarre Hawkeye State poll that found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three percentage points — was confused over what “D” and “R” meant in her own cross tabs.While Selzer’s poll has long been viewed as the gold standard in Iowa, her latest presidential poll is turning heads after the bizarre result. If Selzer’s result proves accurate, Iowa would have shifted 11 points to the left in one election cycle, when Trump carried the state by eight percentage points. The poll also found Harris...

The feds will dispatch monitors to polling sites in 27 states on Election Day, the US Department of Justice announced. Nearly a third of the 86 jurisdictions where the department will keep tabs on polling sites are in the nation’s seven most closely watched swing-states. Monitors are set to visit six counties in Michigan, five in Georgia, four each in Wisconsin and Arizona, three apiece in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and one in Nevada on Nov. 5. Republican leaders in other states, including Texas, Missouri and Florida, said they would reject the DOJ request for access to polling sites, according...

It’s obviously a really close race. But for some pollsters, it’s a little too close. Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states. And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and 48 percent of the vote: Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say “well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!”. And since...

Trump leading by three nationally, has led nationally in last four polls in RCP average. I am cautiously optimistic.

“Keep calm and throw it in the average” is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season. The ups and downs that can come from seeing your preferred candidate pingpong back and forth, from day to day, become less stressful when placed into context — even when this presidential election is remarkable for just how little bouncing there has been in the polls on average. To put this year’s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved...

More polling from the Keystone State suggests Donald Trump may avenge his bitter loss four years ago. And the “Trump strength” is even greater than what his numbers show, Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly tells The Post — possibly enough to flip a Democratic Senate seat. Against Kamala Harris in the main event, the former president and recent McDonald’s shift worker is cooking up a victory in Pennsylvania just as he fried up a satchel of potato strips Sunday in Feasterville-Trevose. Trump is up 46% to 43% over the Democratic quasi-incumbent, indicating arches aren’t the only things that are golden...

Private Harris campaign polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris is in a lot of trouble, political analyst Mark Halperin said on The Morning Meeting with Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine. Despite Harris being up three points nationally according to the New York Times poll, Halperin said he sees her support as precarious. While highlighting key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Harris’s polling deteriorated, Halperin explained that the Wall Street Journal reported that Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign shared negative polling with the paper, indicating broader implications for Democratic candidates in Senate races linked to Harris’s performance.

Democrats are now taking on water in Wisconsin. It’s no longer an outlier: Wisconsin is in play, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has hidden from national Democrats, knows this well, too. The national polling is irrelevant here, as her team’s internals show Ms. Baldwin ahead by only two points. The Cook Political Report reclassified the race as a “toss-up,” not the best of news, with less than a month before Election Day. Now, Democrats are scrambling, but this news out of Wisconsin also highlights a brutal part of Kamala Harris’ operation: she flat-out cannot connect with working people....

Polls of the 2020 presidential election were at their collective worst in 40 years. No misfire that year was more striking than CNN’s. Its final poll before the election estimated that Joe Biden held a landslide-size lead of 12 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump. That reading was down from early October 2020, when CNN reported Biden’s advantage stood at 16 points. No polling organization in 2020 reported a greater margin in the presidential race, according to the RealClearPolitics compilation of polls that year. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points.. So far this year, CNN’s polling in the...

Campaign officials are weighing a potential visit by Vice President Kamala Harris to the US-Mexico border while in Arizona on Friday as the campaign tries to close the gap with former President Donald Trump on the issue of immigration, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. Immigration has featured prominently in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats, grappling with years of border crises, have tried to flip the script on Republicans after the GOP blocked a bipartisan border measure earlier this year. Some Harris campaign officials remain concerned about the gap in polling, which shows Trump holding a lead on...