Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Ego And Bias: Pollster Explains How National Polls Got The Election Wrong — Again
Cowboy State Daily ^ | 11/29/24 | Leo Wolfson

Posted on 11/30/2024 8:53:41 AM PST by CFW

Most political pollsters aren’t receiving compliments from the public at large about their predictions leading up to the 2024 presidential-election. In fact, many people are questioning why the presidential polls were so off again this year after similar dismal performances in the 2020 and 2016 elections.

In 2020, the polls called for President Biden winning by a landslide, but instead Biden won a close race. In 2016, the polls had arguably their most embarrassing performance in modern history, calling for Democratic candidate H.Clinton to win the race by a comfortable margin when in fact this was the case for President-elect Donald Trump when it came to the electoral college.

Dustin Olson, a managing partner with the Republican polling firm American Pulse who has done polling in Wyoming, said the biggest problem within the polling industry these days is that many pollsters could use a little more humility.

He also said pollsters must also put aside their own internal biases and the pressures of the organization they work for to seek out the most accurate results.

“You have to constantly question,” he said. “You have to be looking for what do you know, you know? What do you know, you don’t know? You can’t look for what you don’t know, you don’t know. You might just screw it up and just own it.”

Olson believes the polls were closer to 2016 predictions than 2020 this go-around but to be fair, the polling wasn’t completely wrong this election season. Most polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Trump and VP Harris entering the last few weeks of the campaign. Trump ended up winning the electoral college by a comfortable margin, and the popular vote by a closer result, the first time a Republican candidate had done so for the latter since 2004.

(Excerpt) Read more at cowboystatedaily.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: corruption; egoandbias; horserace; leowolfson; media; polling; thehorserace
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last
Ego and bias, yes indeed.

But the pollsters biggest goal is to form opinions rather than reflect opinions.

Now they are finger-pointing and all blaming each other without admitting that Harris was an awful candidate and she ran an awful campaign. The number one issue was that the majority didn't want to suffer through another four years like the past four. Plus, they were tired of being told the economy is great, crime is down, and the border is secure when they knew good and well that was all lies. Harris couldn't think of a thing she would do differently than Biden.

The best thing about the post-election whining by Democrats is that they learned nothing at all. Thus they will keep on their current path and try to lie better to the voters. My goodness, they are talking of running AOC as their 2028 candidate. Will Hillary allow that? She also seems to be making moves to run again. If she wants to be the nominee, AOC will trip and fall off her balcony sometime in 2026. Oh BTW, social media rumors are that AOC is pregnant. Nothing like a babe in mother's arms to push your candidate to the top of the polls. She can do interviews as she rocks her child while promoting abortion.

1 posted on 11/30/2024 8:53:41 AM PST by CFW
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: CFW

I say it all the time - polls are garbage with zero transparency or accountability. They can do whatever they want, make up fake data and slap a “poll” label on it and no one could tell. Ignore them.

Now maybe the rest of the world has opened its eyes.


2 posted on 11/30/2024 8:58:28 AM PST by bigbob (Yes. We ARE going back!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW

Ego and bias, and hidden financial incentives will ensure that nothing will change in future elections. The pollsters are what they are.


3 posted on 11/30/2024 8:58:32 AM PST by Starboard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW
Most of the public polling outfits engaged in push polling and should never be trusted again. Even one of Kamala's campaign leaders admitted that Kamala was never winning in their internal polls.
4 posted on 11/30/2024 8:59:39 AM PST by wildcard_redneck
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW

BTTT


5 posted on 11/30/2024 9:00:19 AM PST by nopardons
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

“They can do whatever they want, make up fake data and slap a “poll” label on it”

*************

Statistical tools and techniques are robust enough to produce accurate polls. Its the human element that skews the results.


6 posted on 11/30/2024 9:01:53 AM PST by Starboard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Starboard

“National poll.” Who cares? Maybe 10 States will tell the tale.


7 posted on 11/30/2024 9:08:44 AM PST by gundog (It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: wildcard_redneck

There is this paragraph in the article:

“When Harris first entered the race, she had a clear lead. By the time the Democratic National Convention arrived, her polling numbers were already starting to slip, Olson said. After Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his support for Trump, she fell behind further in the polls.”


Harris was never really in the lead. We now know even her own campaign’s internal polling never showed her in the lead. Also, one thing that happens is that even in RCP they will manipulate the polling to push false positives for the Democrats.

Though several more reputable polls (if there is such a thing) would show Trump ahead (even if it was only by 1 to 1.5 points), RCP would throw in an outlier to skew the polling to show Democrats leading in the average polling. That would give the media the headline they needed for the following few days. And the Selzer Iowa poll! My goodness the Des Moines news should apologize to the voters for even publishing that one!


8 posted on 11/30/2024 9:10:13 AM PST by CFW (uic)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Starboard

“Statistical tools and techniques are robust enough to produce accurate polls.”

I would argue that polling has some strengths and some weaknesses.

It is very good in the following areas:

—Process polls—like when are you going to vote and what is your party registration
—Comparing candidates within the same party—to see who is the stronger and weaker candidates on the ticket

It has major problems in these areas:

—Horse race polls—hard core Trump supporters hate pollsters and will not respond to them. It is impossible to tell how many of them will actually show up to vote—so you are left with “adjustments” that are just wild guesses.
That has the same effect on down ticket races in the Trump era.
—Issues polls—if you ask the wrong questions you get the wrong answers—and sometimes people don’t even know in their conscious mind what their real big issues are.
The transgender Trump ad was so effective because it combined a bunch of issues in one simple concept: “Harris is for they/them. I am for you.” What “issue” is that exactly? The issue poll would not pick up on it.
—Pollster bias—Leftist pollsters in particular skew their polls left and do it on purpose. We can debate why they do it—but there can be no question they do it.
—Small sample size—the margin of error on small sample sizes is so large as to make those polls useless noise.

The University of Texas and UCLA has spent a small fortune doing large sample polling including repeating the same respondents month after month after month—and still blew it on the election. They couldn’t find a bunch of Trump voters—no matter what they did—and they had no way to know how many they could not reach.


9 posted on 11/30/2024 9:19:30 AM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: CFW

Because the democrats are idiots who vote for who they think will win.


10 posted on 11/30/2024 9:24:49 AM PST by Samurai_Jack (This is not about hypocrisy, this is about hierarchy!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW

I think they use toe polls for 2 things - first sell them to demonrats and the other to analize themselves.


11 posted on 11/30/2024 9:28:23 AM PST by wgmalabama (Screw Ukraine, screw Russia, screw the west. The only thing that matter is money at this point. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW
The polls were not that far off.

In my poll-based model, if I added 1% to President Trump's results and subtracted 1% from Kamala Harris' results, I end up with Trump winning 312 Electoral College votes, which is what he got.

-PJ

12 posted on 11/30/2024 9:35:40 AM PST by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CFW

I have the opinion that the Democratic team saw that writing on the wall early and in a fit of greed ensured all the money given was milked dry form the the campaign. 500k to sharpton, 1m to Oprah, beyonce, and other entertainers for endorsements. Who got a the approx. 100-200k(I don’t remember that exact cost) to make a special studio for the Call her Daddy podcast?
I think there should be a FEC or congressional committee investigation into the miss appropriation of the 2 billion plus of funds be it is a laugh that is going to happen. Well played.


13 posted on 11/30/2024 9:36:40 AM PST by Liaison (TANSTAAFL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too

The problem is that all the main stream media polls all were wrong in the same direction.

That is like flipping a coin and getting heads twenty times in a row.

That is a Mafia coin toss.

:-)


14 posted on 11/30/2024 9:40:09 AM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: CFW
This is all explained by Conquest's Second Law of Politics:

Any organization not explicitly and constitutionally right-wing will sooner or later become left-wing.

This law applies to polling firms too, as it does to media outlets.

Actually, Conquest's Second Law is just the cultural manifestation of what is known as "the Heat Death of the Universe."

15 posted on 11/30/2024 9:43:42 AM PST by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cgbg
The MSM polls, yes, and Fox News polling was on the worse end of it.

Atlas Intel, Trafalgar, The Hill/Emerson, and InsiderAdvanatage were more accurate.

-PJ

16 posted on 11/30/2024 9:45:01 AM PST by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: CFW
Most polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Trump and VP Harris entering the last few weeks of the campaign.

The Gaslight Media always HAS to have its "Horse Race".

Besides, how else would they have got kamaLOL to cough up her billion donorbucks?

17 posted on 11/30/2024 9:46:12 AM PST by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Steely Tom

Conquest’s Second Law of Politics was a brilliant insight.

It also shows us what we need to do.

We need to become true activists—that means no compromising, no deals, no “tolerance”, no “fairness”, no reaching across the aisle—just a forever culture war that takes no prisoners.

Some folks like to call it World War T (for trans).

They started it.

We need to fight it and win it—and then keep our boot on their neck.


18 posted on 11/30/2024 9:50:18 AM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: cgbg

“Small sample size—the margin of error on small sample sizes is so large as to make those polls useless noise.”

************

Not disputing your points but you can use a given margin of error and confidence interval to calculate the needed sample size (n) so as to avoid useless noise.


19 posted on 11/30/2024 9:53:56 AM PST by Starboard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: CFW

Scientific polling is like “scientific” global warming. The results are baked in.


20 posted on 11/30/2024 10:01:45 AM PST by faucetman (Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson