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Did the US election polls fail?
BBC News ^ | 7 November 2024 | Natalie Sherman

Posted on 11/07/2024 11:12:15 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call.

Then Donald Trump delivered a commanding victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states, and performing unexpectedly well in other places.

He is now poised to become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote, and could enter office with a Republican-controlled House and Senate at his back.

So were the polls wrong about it being a tight contest?

At the national level, they certainly appeared to underestimate Trump for the third election in a row.

But in the battleground states such as Pennsylvania, where most of the polling was focused, Trump's margin of victory was typically within striking distance of his performance in the polls, even if the forecasts were slightly lower than the final outcome.

The average polling error seen in these swing states was not actually that big. Still, in tight campaigns, small changes can make a big difference.

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bbcfakenews; election; fakenews; fakepolls; harris; kamala; polling; polls; realitysettingin; tds; trump
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1 posted on 11/07/2024 11:12:15 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

The Cope is strong in this one...


2 posted on 11/07/2024 11:15:14 PM PST by kiryandil (Kraft durch Freude! - The Kamunist and The Walzrus )
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To: MinorityRepublican
The Gaslight Media was gaslighting us the entire time.

I'm getting REAL sick of their bullsqueeze.

3 posted on 11/07/2024 11:16:03 PM PST by kiryandil (Kraft durch Freude! - The Kamunist and The Walzrus )
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To: MinorityRepublican

The polling was terrible, totally against Trump.
Same in 2016, Same in 2020.


4 posted on 11/07/2024 11:21:12 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: SmokingJoe

5 posted on 11/07/2024 11:23:50 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
Trump voters don't want to talk to pollsters.

Liberal women REALLY want to talk to pollsters and won't stop talking to them!

Pollsters understand this and try to bake this into their polling.

They were off.

6 posted on 11/07/2024 11:25:18 PM PST by Drew68 (Today I'm thoroughly enjoying eating crow salted with liberal tears. Best meal I've ever had!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Thx you wolly git! We was so hoping another captain obvious would be ambling along.


7 posted on 11/07/2024 11:27:48 PM PST by Kudsman (Pro life is anti Marxism. )
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To: kiryandil
Sadly, they probably kept the GOP from flipping even more Senate and House seats. So, from the DEMs' viewpoint, they were successful.

But they couldn't save Harris no matter how much they tried. She was a brutally awful presidential candidate who avoided real interviews and avoided answering real questions. Heck, she screwed the pooch trying to answer softball questions from the likes of Oprah. She avoided the Al Smith dinner, instead submitting a dreadful video that was insulting to Catholics. She insulted men everywhere. She was quite possibly the worst presidential candidate ever.

8 posted on 11/07/2024 11:28:28 PM PST by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: CatOwner
“So, from the DEMs’ viewpoint, they were successful.”

Nope.

9 posted on 11/07/2024 11:38:15 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: MinorityRepublican

Yes,


10 posted on 11/07/2024 11:40:34 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: All

Polls are there to manipulate.

They have lazy voters and had to frame the race as close to encourage turnout and the try to save the down ballot races.

They used polls. Celebrities. Concerts.

Didn’t work.


11 posted on 11/07/2024 11:46:45 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: MinorityRepublican

Rasmussen called it correctly as he has done in the past without political bias. Most of the other polls were politically biased by choice. It is that simple.


12 posted on 11/07/2024 11:48:46 PM PST by cpdiii (cane cutter, deckhand, oilfield roughneck, drilling fluid tech, geologist, pilot, pharmacist ,MAGA)
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To: MinorityRepublican

MAGA people don’t answer polls correctly.


13 posted on 11/08/2024 12:07:08 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: MinorityRepublican

Taking polling averages obscures the fact that many individual polls were outside the margin of error. There were later polls that had Harris +4 or better in the popular vote. The popular vote right now stands at Trump +3. A 7 point miss is pretty big. And I haven’t forgotten the Iowa poll either.

Even polling averages are a problem sometimes. I believe Rick Scott was +4, and he ended up +13. In that case I think they’re were a lot of push polls, with pollsters trying to pump up the Dems chances. Same with Ted Cruz in TX. He didn’t win by a landslide, but +8.5 is pretty decisive, and far from the 2 point margin some pollsters wanted folks to believe.

The polls in general were a little better than 2016 or 2020, when Hillary and Biden were +10 or better in multiple major polls.


14 posted on 11/08/2024 12:07:43 AM PST by Roadrunner383
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To: MinorityRepublican

Well...when your sources are pure agitprop....


15 posted on 11/08/2024 12:25:22 AM PST by Fester Chugabrew (In a world of parrots and lemmings, be a watchdog.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I’m convinced, the polls exist only to sway elections. Common sense told us this race was never close to even. They continued to say Harris 49/46, Trump 47/44, it was never that close.
The Harris/Walz ticket was a total sham, no one with a brain believed they were viable.


16 posted on 11/08/2024 12:27:44 AM PST by Fireone ("and dumb & silent we may be led, like sheep, to the Slaughter." G. Washington 1783)
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To: MinorityRepublican

No pollster talked to me. And they probably never will, as long as I refuse to answer phone calls from numbers I don’t recognize.


17 posted on 11/08/2024 12:35:42 AM PST by Berosus (I wish I had as much faith in God as liberals have in government.)
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To: kiryandil

The polls have become part of the propaganda process and as such are not to be believed.


18 posted on 11/08/2024 12:36:24 AM PST by Whatever Works (The real power lies in who counts the votes and controls the teleprompter.)
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To: MinorityRepublican; Liz; GOPJ; qaz123; Grampa Dave
I've got the answer for you, Ms. Natalie of BBC News.

British media such as the BCC, The Economist, Financial Times, and so forth are so hateful of Trump that they played up the fake polls.  That's no secret.  It's called FAKE NEWS.

Please keep your biased editorial stories to yourselves.  We'll do very well with MAGA and our hero, President Donald Trump.

And as Britain steadily descends into chaos and illegal immigrant hell, Trump and his team are going to make America great again -- and save OUR Republic.

We didn't need King George in the 1700s.  We sure as heck don't your 21st century meddling into an America that will be returned to We the People in the next several years.

If we listened to the intellectuals yet idiots in the UK, we'd have a DEI-hire, sleep-to-the-top President and America would become a communist banana republic in short order. 

Mind your own store, BBC.  Fix YOUR OWN country!

With all due respect.

19 posted on 11/08/2024 12:45:55 AM PST by poconopundit
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To: MinorityRepublican
There’s about 12 million un accounted for voters from 2020 to 2024. When the Trump administration finishes its review of the 2020 election, I predict we’re going to see between 12 and 15 million votes for Biden and Harris that apparently came out of the ether in 2020.

One of the reasons they wanted to kill Trump in Butler, JMHO.

Ironically, Pelosi, Biden, Obama and Blackrock / Dominion will likely say “ Ok, we agree that Trump won in 2020 so that means he is illegally serving a 3rd term now”. “He must be impeached”

20 posted on 11/08/2024 1:29:31 AM PST by atc23 (I voted early for TRUMP)
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