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With midterms rapidly approaching, Republicans had appeared to catch a break on the economy. After a year in which the war with Iran sent gas prices soaring and pushed inflation to multi-year highs, both June and July’s Consumer Price Index came in tame. Even grocery prices slipped for the first time in months. But then President Trump returned to his longtime obsession: tariffs. Indeed, last weekend, talks between the White House and Canada collapsed, and Trump immediately slapped 50 percent tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Canadian goods, reviving what the Wall Street Journal called “The Dumbest Trade War...

This video from Black Conservative Perspective analyzes recent political polling trends and discusses why election outcomes often differ from poll predictions. The creator highlights concerns that polls may underestimate Republican support, drawing on historical examples like the 2016 and 2024 elections. Key takeaways from the video: Polling Discrepancies: The creator discusses a CNN segment where data analysts explored scenarios where polls might be wrong. The video suggests that when polls are incorrect, they have historically underestimated Republican performance (0:01:22-0:06:50). Social Trust: The video explores the theory that lower "social trust" among some Republican voters may make them less likely to...

The words “fake poll” took on new meaning as a firm tied to several progressive candidates with apparent big leads closed after the group revealed its voter surveys were fabricated.The Los Angeles Times (LA Times) reported the polling outfit behind a widely credited survey, which showed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass with a 12-point lead over challenger Nithya Raman, said the survey was “a short-term social experiment.”The company’s website said the purpose of the survey’s release was to track “how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.” Previously, a poll by the...

Average ground beef price per pound: 🔵 June 2024: $5.47 🔴 June 2025: $6.12 🔴 June 2026: $6.83 [Tr] Up 11.5% from 2025 and nearly 25% from 2024

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has overtaken California Governor Gavin Newsom in prediction market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination for the first time, according to data from Polymarket highlighted Wednesday by the political-tracking account InteractivePolls. The market showed Ocasio-Cortez at 18 percent, narrowly ahead of Newsom at 17 percent. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff ranked third at 16 percent, while former Vice President Kamala Harris stood at 8 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro each came in at 5 percent. The shift marks a notable moment in the still-early race to shape the Democratic field ahead...

"Congressman John Larson is well-positioned to win the Democratic primary election for Connecticut’s First District. Larson leads former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin by 23 points, 49 to 26 percent with 9 percent for State Representative Jillian Gilchrest and 15 percent undecided or supporting other candidates. Larson enjoys near universal name recognition (92 percent), is well liked (76 percent view him favorably) and voters believe he delivers for Connecticut (80 percent say that it describes Larson well). He wins all regions of the district, across the ideological spectrum and among voters over 50 years (71 percent of the electorate). What’s more,...

Non-college voters, the base of the MAGA movement, are abandoning the GOP. MAGA's net favorability is -22 pts (down 28 pts) with them. Trump's now at -19 pt net approval with them. Dems actually lead in the race for Congress with them. This is what blue waves are built on. ...

The Iran War, the Epstein files and even the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool have prompted fierce debate on Capitol Hill since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. But there was one topic that even Washington’s political class probably didn’t expect to cause a storm among Republicans this week: the humble burrito. It began on Tuesday with a post on X from Andrew Kolvet, a spokesman for Turning Point USA. Recounting a recent conversation with one of the conservative group’s student supporters, he wrote: “One of our TPUSA college students gave me his take on affordability. A burrito shouldn’t cost...

Inside Elections 2026 Midterm Forecast House: 🔴 Republicans: 215 🔵 Democrats: 206 🟡 Tossup: 14 Senate: 🔴 Republicans: 52 🔵 Democrats: 45 🟡 Tossup: 3 Swing States: Maine: 🔴 Tilt R Michigan: 🟡 Tossup Georgia: 🟡 Tossup North Carolina: 🟡 Tossup New Hampshire: 🔵 Tilt D

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) lead in the latest polling on the South Carolina Republican Senate primary, with both vying to serve a full six-year term following former Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) sudden death. A new Emerson College poll released Thursday found Norman had 22 percent support, followed by Graham with 19 percent support. ... Norman’s biggest support comes from voters younger than 50, at 24 percent, and in their 50s, at 25 percent. Thirty percent of Graham’s supporters are older than 70. But 53 percent of voters said President Trump’s endorsement of Graham did not...

Two-thirds of Americans believe the war in Iran has not been worth fighting. A new AP-NORC poll found that roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war that began Feb. 28 is not worthwhile. The sentiment is shared by the vast majority of Democrats (87%) and independents (68%), as well as 37% of Republicans. The AP-NORC poll, conducted July 23-27, surveyed 1,165 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by five percentage points in a survey of likely Texas voters released Tuesday, marking a shift from earlier polling that showed the attorney general narrowly ahead or tied in the U.S. Senate contest. Discover more Legislative Branch Government Voter registration services Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading Paxton, 45 percent to 40 percent, “marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period,” the Texas Tribune reported. The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15 through July 17. The poll has a margin of...

This video, created by Black Conservative Perspective, analyzes the financial situation of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and explores its potential impact on the upcoming midterm elections. The host argues that the Democratic Party is facing significant fundraising challenges and organizational issues, which may weaken their chances against Republicans. Key takeaways from the video: Financial Struggles: The video claims the DNC is facing severe financial difficulties, reportedly having to use its headquarters as loan collateral to maintain operations (1:46 - 2:13, 5:00 - 5:23). It highlights a discrepancy in cash-on-hand between the DNC and the RNC, noting the DNC has...

JD Vance remains the Republican Party's clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2028. A new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll shows Vance holding a strong lead over every other potential contender, cementing his status as the candidate to beat as the GOP begins looking ahead to the next presidential race that will kick off shortly after the midterms. Vance stands at 48 percent among Republican primary voters, down three points, but remains far ahead of his closest rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has climbed three points to 18 percent. Rubio has said publicly he would not challenge Vance...

Progressive firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has surged to the front of the prospective 2028 Democratic presidential field in New Hampshire, edging Pete Buttigieg and leaving Kamala Harris far behind in a new poll. Ocasio-Cortez drew 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters in the University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released Wednesday, one point ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and 17 points ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris. Ocasio-Cortez gained seven points since the February survey, while Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost ground — another sign of the New York lawmaker’s growing strength among...

"Nearly 100 US service members have suffered some level of injury since July 7, according to the Pentagon, which has been slow to disclose nonfatal attacks. US President Donald Trump said the US will hit the area of Pickaxe Mountain — a fortified underground facility believed to be connected to Iran’s nuclear program — “probably pretty soon.” 0:00​ Iran war "historically unpopular." -40 points approval 3:15​ Servicemembers are dying as the war drags on 5:24​ Is this a forever war? 8:19​ Is the Iran war's unpopularity strictly economy-related?" ...

OSZ @OpenSourceZone Republicans gain in the house forecast Per decision desk June 4: (🔵 Dem 73% Chance) 🔵 Democrats: 237 🔴 Republicans: 198 Now: (🔵 Dem 59% Chance) 🔵 Democrats: 224 (-13) 🔴 Republicans: 211 (+13) Image 2:29 PM · Jul 22, 2026

Vance 45 to Newsom 38; also, Vance 45 AOC 38. Zogby Poll; July 1-4, 2026; 1,003 likely voters.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has consistently said he’s focused on winning a third-term for governor this November — and despite the speculation, those close to him insist he hasn’t made a decision on whether he’ll run for president in 2028. But the governor is showing up in presidential polls, and he’s building coalitions with state parties while also strengthening his national name recognition. He has also explored future fundraising paths that don’t include self-funding — if a presidential run is truly in the cards. Pritzker is on the list of names popping up on presidential polls, which the New York...

2026 Inside Elections House Ratings 🔴 Republicans: 215 🔵 Democrats: 206 🟡 Tossup: 14 2026 Inside Elections Senate Ratings 🔴 Republicans: 52 🔵 Democrats: 45 🟡 Tossup: 3 Swing States: Maine: 🔴 Tilt R Ohio: 🔴 Tilt R Michigan: 🟡 Tossup North Carolina: 🟡 Tossup Georgia: 🟡 Tossup New Hampshire: 🔵 Tilt D