Free Republic

Most Americans oppose giving U.S. military aid to Ukraine, according to a poll conducted days after President Joe Biden reportedly authorized Ukraine’s use of American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles inside Russia. The CBS News/YouGov poll finds that 51 percent of Americans do not support providing military aid and weapons to Ukraine, while 49 percent do. There is a noticeable gap in age demographics. Those under 65 are more inclined to oppose sending aid and weapons, while a majority of those 65 and older support helping Ukraine.

ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) - A former Georgia poll worker was indicted Tuesday for allegedly threatening to bomb a polling place and lying to the FBI during the investigation, according to the Department of Justice. Nicholas Wimbish, 25, of Milledgeville, was arrested on Nov. 4 and made his first court appearance on Nov. 5. According to the DOJ, Wimbish was working at the Jones County Elections Office on Oct. 16 when he had a verbal altercation with a voter. Later that evening, Wimbish researched online to determine what information about himself would be publicly available. The following day, Wimbish...

... Dems call Allan Lichtman an “Election Nostradamus.” He came up with this surefire way to predict elections. Although, it’s not so sure-fire because he hasn’t been right every time, and he got 2024 wrong in a big way, which is a big sore spot for him, as you’ll see later. ... https://twitter.com/i/status/1859010089426055263

Hey Nate, we weren't coordinating with the Trump campaign like I think an investigation could find that Selzer may have been. I control the numbers completely myself, and they are 100% a product of my own work. You should probably retract that. BTW, I refuse to pay to read this crap, but I'm pretty sure you're going to talk about the accuracy of polls on 11/4 and ignore the fact that they were manufacturing a fake Harris lead all fall (like your model also helped do by inserting additional leftward bias as compared to RCP). We, alone, showed Trump winning...

Donald Trump never broke 50% job approval ratings in his first term, but he's smashing that barrier now... and the Senate had better pay attention. He's not in office, so the visible job he has is largely putting together his cabinet and establishing his strategy, but voters are loving it. 54% approve, and only 40% disapprove. This indicates that a substantial portion of voters who voted against him are warming up to him. https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/HHP_Nov2024_KeyResults.pdf A high initial approval rating normally doesn't mean much more than some of the people who voted against a new president are hopeful that the unfamiliar...

John McIntyre couldn’t believe it. The publisher of the Real Clear Polling National Average, America’s first presidential poll aggregator, woke on October 31st to see his product denounced in the New York Times. Launched in 2002 and long a mainstay of campaign writers and news consumers alike, the RCP average, he learned, was part of a “torrent” of partisan rubbish being “weaponized” to “deflate Democrats’ enthusiasm” and “undermine faith in the entire system.” “They actually wrote that our problem was we didn’t weight results,” says an incredulous McIntyre. “That we didn’t put a thumb on the scale.” The Times ended...

Nearly two weeks after President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral victory, Democrats and pundits alike are still trying to make sense of how Trump swept all seven swing states en route to securing more than 300 electoral votes. The exit polls reveal the overarching reason behind Trump’s victory. Voters rejected Vice President Kamala Harris’s and Democrats’ left-leaning platform, which doubled down on progressive social issues while largely neglecting the economy. Instead, Trump’s focus on kitchen table issues such as the economy and immigration was significantly more effective than Harris’s and Democrats’ focus on abortion rights, particularly with young, Hispanic, and Black voters...

America never really gave Donald Trump a chance... until now. The highest his average approval rating ever got to was 43%, in mid-December, 2016. The best that could be said for him by middle-of-the-road voters had been that he was better than Hillary... again, until now. YouGov and Morning Consult were two pollsters that were skewed against Trump the hardest: both predicted him losing to Harris by two to four points. But they're the first two pollsters to poll his current approval rating, and they both have him higher than ever: YouGov has him at 49% and Morning Consult at...

Every four years, presidential opinion polling reliably causes regime media to misplace their poop. But after the actual polling places close and report, the stenographer journalists generally don’t expose which—if any—of these influential prognosticators should be publicly grilled for fouling up. A current exception proves the rule. On the weekend before Election Day, pollster Ann Selzer unleashed an Iowa survey for the Des Moines Register purporting to show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points in a state Harris supposedly had no business winning. The “late shift toward Harris,” declared the Des Moines Register, was happening because of older...

The mystery trader who calls himself ‘Théo’ is on track for a payday of nearly $50 million Théo is set for a huge payday. He made his wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, using four anonymous accounts. He concluded the polls were overstating support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike most armchair political commentators, he put his money where his mouth was, betting more than $30 million that Trump would win. In his emails and a Zoom conversation with a reporter, Théo repeatedly criticized U.S. opinion polls. He was particularly critical of polls conducted by mainstream-media outlets that, in...

For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call. Then Donald Trump delivered a commanding victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states, and performing unexpectedly well in other places. He is now poised to become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote, and could enter office with a Republican-controlled House and Senate at his back. So were the polls wrong about it being a tight contest? At the national level, they certainly appeared to underestimate Trump for the third election in a row. But...

Pollster J. Ann Selzer is "reviewing her data" to determine why her pre-election poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. Selzer is "reviewing her data to determine why a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released just days before the election produced results so far out of line with former President Donald Trump's resounding victory," according to the Des Moines Register.

Famed Iowa pollster Ann Selzer said she will be “reviewing data” after her survey that gave Democrats false hopes in the final days of the campaign proved to be wildly inaccurate.

Chic - Good Times (1978)

Veteran lefty political analyst Van Jones said he is “nervous” about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances at the polls Tuesday — after her campaign focused on out-of-touch celebrity endorsements. Jones, a former special adviser to President Barack Obama, said Harris’ “star-studded” campaign events in the days leading up to the election felt eerily similar to the final days of Hillary Clinton’s failed White House bid in 2016. The political analyst admitted he was skeptical that her final swing-state push, which has featured celebs like Katy Perry, Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey, will actually convince working-class people to vote blue. “The...

https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/04/from-midterms-to-momentum-the-battle-for-absentee-ballots-and-early-votes/

After a campaign that included a candidate switch, a pair of assassination attempts and dramatic twists seemingly every day, the conventional wisdom from months ago ultimately prevails in three polls showing Donald Trump ahead in most swing states. If Kamala Harris can do what Democrats have done in most elections for decades and win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the blue-wall states — she’ll likely have the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. If she can’t, Trump will almost certainly be the next president. But there’s plenty of drama possible before results are finalized — which wouldn’t happen until...

A new poll from AtlasIntel claimed former president Donald Trump is leading vice president Kamala Harris in each of the seven swing states though the margin is narrow. Trump is favored to win in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The new poll comes amid Ann Selzer poll sent shockwaves that Kamala Harris is ahead in Iowa which is a reliably conservative turf that Donald Trump won both in 2016 and 2020. The AtlasIntel survey said Donald Trump is holding the widest margin in Arizona -- with a 52.3 per cent to Harris 45.8 per cent. In...

Readers of my Post piece predicting Donald Trump will win and Republicans will have a good night in congressional contests may wonder how I derived the numbers underlying those calls. Here I examine that in detail and show why getting the balance between Democrats and Republicans among voters — partisan preference — is the key unlocking the polls. Polling’s theoretical accuracy relies on the statistics underlying the relation between a random sample and the broader population it’s drawn from. But surveyors can no longer get truly random samples because cellphones and the Internet have changed how people live. Pollsters have...

Republican Donald Trump has pulled into a virtual tie with Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the final poll commissioned by The Post ahead of Tuesday’s election — erasing a four-percentage point deficit as the race entered October. The survey by Leger found Trump, 78, and Harris, 60, each receiving 49% support among likely voters, with the remaining 2% saying they would back another candidate. Harris has lost two points of support from the Oct. 1 Leger poll for The Post, which showed her leading the 45th president 51% to 47%.