Free Republic

Polling, why is it so bad? Its election cycle, and as you know in this day and age with every poll that comes out and plethora of headlines and stories will be written about it, because polling apparently is now a replacement for news.. and has been for a long long time now during election season. Every new poll will be reported both professionally and among the punditry as either the end of days, or the greatest news ever to come about, depending on where in the political spectrum the pundit lies and whether their candidate is up or down....

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ current national lead over former President Donald Trump is too slim to signal a likely victory in the November election due to the electoral college. Harris’ national lead over Trump grew by just a single point following their debate last week, despite a majority of viewers believing she won, according to ABC News/Ipsos data released on Sunday. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted Harris’ 2.5-point lead in his polling aggregate gives her roughly a 50% chance of winning. “Okay, so basically, you note that 2.5-point lead...

I’m sure there will be a poll or two over the next week talking about a Harris bump but so far Trumps strategy of an RFK endorsement rally and a sit down with Elon has negated any major bump from her convention. Even the Morning Consult poll out today which had Trump ahead for like two weeks this year has it 48-44 for Harris unchanged from last week. In other words she had a chance to put Donald behind the 8 ball with debate negotiations now that is no longer the case as to be honest she needs the debate...

Vice President Kamala Harris has enjoyed a noticeable surge in the polls – particularly national polls – since becoming the Democratic standard bearer, but the rapid shift in her position has left some industry analysts questioning the apparent boost in the formerly quite unpopular vice president’s standing. In her 2020 run, she struggled to break 3% before dropping out, according to The Hill. Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris suffered from decidedly poor approval ratings and Trump initially held the lead over her in a head-to-head matchup. The average quickly flipped, however, in the wake of several surveys showing...

Senator JD Vance (R-OH) said on this week’s broadcast of Fox News Sunday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ poll numbers were “stagnating and leveling off.” Host Shannon Bream asked, “You talk about your message, but is it not landing?” Vance said, “What we have certainly seen is Kamala Harris got a bit of a sugar high a couple weeks ago but what we have actually seen from our own internal data is Kamala Harris has already leveled off. If you talk to insiders in the Kamala Harris campaign they are very worried about where they are.”

It's Thursday, and that means our latest mega 2024 Trump vs. Harris numbers are out. We have all the latest charts and crosstabs, and it looks like our results are quite a bit different than the rest of the industry. That's OK, we're used to it!

According to the polls, the presidential race has tightened since Joe Biden dropped out and anointed Kamala Harris as the Democrats’ nominee. Donald Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just 0.8 points. However, one pollster that still shows Trump with a healthy lead nationally is Rasmussen Reports. Its latest poll, released Thursday, had Trump up five points nationally; however, Trump’s “margin has narrowed, especially when third-party candidates are factored into this year’s election.” Many on the left took to social media to dismiss the poll and label Rasmussen Reports as a "pro-Trump pollster." To get a response...

Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 6 points in New Hampshire ahead of their expected November match-up, two separate surveys found. According to a poll released Thursday by the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, Harris, who announced her candidacy just this week after President Biden bowed out of the race Sunday, is leading Trump in the Granite State 49 percent to 43 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned 4 percent support, and 3 percent of respondents said they aren’t sure. In a two-way contest between Harris and Trump, her lead increases slightly; 53 percent said...

Kamala Harris has suffered a blow in a poll that looked at how alternative Democratic candidates would do in swing states. There have been calls for U.S. President Joe Biden to be replaced as the Democratic candidate since the world watched his poor performance in his debate with Donald Trump on June 27. Many have assumed the vice president would be the obvious choice, but a new poll shows she doesn't fare as well as others, and she wasn't among the four who performed best. Analytics company BlueLabs carried out research to determine who would increase the number of people...

MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow said Thursday on “All In” that she was worried President Joe Biden was not being given the real poll numbers, which showed that he was losing the race after he insisted in his press conference that he was not doing poorly. Host Chris Hayes said, “There was something that he said that I thought was striking where he talked about, and I throughout it was honest and gives a window in the psychology. He said I got to finish the job.”

First lady Jill Biden on Monday is launching an outreach effort which includes targeting members of the United States military, who are rarely polled about their voting preferences. The move comes as President Joe Biden's campaign team works to move past concerns around the incumbent after a damaging debate performance late last month.

The polling memo from Open Labs, leaked to Puck News, showed how President Biden’s support was sliding following his panic-inducing debate performance Thursday. The poll also showed Biden’s vote share falling in every important swing state, with Trump holding a roughly 7-point lead in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. And it noted that Democrats other than Biden were outperforming the president in a horse race against Trump. “However, the poll that really shook Democrats in their boots came from Open Labs, a highly respected Democratic polling operation that works with campaigns and Super PACs,” said Pfeiffer, also a co-host of the...

For months the American people have expressed doubts that President Joe Biden has what it takes to serve in office for the next four years. His chaotic debate performance confirmed those doubts. Now, once die-hard Biden supporters are forced to reevaluate their decision to vote for the 81-year-old president. Despite Biden claiming his debate performance won over more undecided voters than former President Donald, polls tell a different story. According to a JL Partners poll, nearly 70 percent of Independent voters want Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while only while 32 percent of Democrats disagree. Biden’s debate...

There’s a reason why FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wanted Joe Biden to consider quitting the 2024 race. The president’s polls were abysmal, and this wasn’t 2020, though some people in Biden’s orbit think they will win anyway because Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee. On crucial issues, Biden is underwater by double-digits, with most of his 2020 supporters admitting they think he’s too old to be effective. That’s on top of the 86 percent from a Washington Post/ABC News poll who think he’s too old to run again. These aren’t outliers; it’s a consensus. It also didn’t help that Biden looked...

Nate Silver's current model of the 2024 Presidential Election has Trump at 66% to win. Nate is pretty good I think, he had the highest odds of anyone in 2016 for Trump.

There is a growing exodus from traditionally left-leaning demographics away from Joe Biden toward Donald Trump. In fact, a new analysis shows that Trump is rapidly closing Biden’s slim lead among women voters, with women’s support for Biden the lowest for a Democrat in two decades. As inflation continues to spike and the cost of living becomes ever more unaffordable, many women, including black and Hispanic women, are remembering that they were doing much better under Trump than they are under Sleepy Joe Biden. New data from The New York Times and Siena College polls shows Biden, who led Trump...

Fox News - 6/14-6/17 - 1095 (Reg. Voters) - 3.0 (Margin of Error) - Biden 50 - Trump 48

Vice President Kamala Harris celebrated the cast of Netflix’s Queer Eye at the White House while she faces brutal polling numbers. “Can we talk?” Queer Eye star Jonathan van Ness is heard saying in the video, to which Harris replies, “Come on in.” “Just so you know, we’re going to fight every urge not to open drawers, it’s in our DNA,” Queer Eye star Jai Rodriguez quipped while in the White House. The cast of @QueerEye joined me at the White House to discuss the hard-fought progress the LGBTQI+ community has made in the past 20 years. Thank you for...

U.S. — Following the revelation that a deadly parasite was once removed from his skull, political experts were shocked to learn that the dead worm found in Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s brain was already polling higher than Joe Biden in 11 states. The latest poll results indicated a large portion of the electorate had abandoned Biden in favor of the deceased parasite that had previously been lodged in RFK Jr.'s brain, leaving the White House scrambling to formulate a strategy to combat the dead worm. "We weren't expecting to see numbers like these," said one high-ranking Biden campaign strategist under...

AZ: Trump 47 to Biden 43, MI: Trump 51 to Biden 36. PA: Trump 46 to Biden 41, WI: Trump 48 to Biden 38, April 20, to 21, 2024. Sample sizes: AZ 874, MI 804, PA 802, WI 802.