Posted on 08/06/2024 6:57:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
According to the polls, the presidential race has tightened since Joe Biden dropped out and anointed Kamala Harris as the Democrats’ nominee. Donald Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just 0.8 points. However, one pollster that still shows Trump with a healthy lead nationally is Rasmussen Reports. Its latest poll, released Thursday, had Trump up five points nationally; however, Trump’s “margin has narrowed, especially when third-party candidates are factored into this year’s election.”
Many on the left took to social media to dismiss the poll and label Rasmussen Reports as a "pro-Trump pollster."
To get a response to these accusations and to get some answers about the state of the race, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports. We delved into the current political climate and polling dynamics surrounding Harris and Trump.
Mitchell addressed this criticism by pointing me to the following chart that illustrates Rasmussen Reports’ track record:
Our Weekly 2020 Estimates
If you look at our very final estimate we were Biden +1 or 3.5 points off the final 4.5 point actual.
If you average our 5 final weeks (Biden +1, +3, +5, +12 & +8) you get 5.8 or 1.3 points off the 4.5 point actual.
Now, look at this race ...
https://t.co/O8vhxy2J3o pic.twitter.com/nnQJ5cIxoI— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 1, 2024
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Replying to @free_speech66 @IAPolls2022 and @Rasmussen_Poll This poll was mostly about right in 2020. They got Trump´s vote share exactly right and underestimated Biden´s by 3%, which can be attributed to late deciders. Anyway, they were closer than most polling outfits.
"The average of our polling was spot on in 2016 and about 1.5 points too favorable to Biden in 2020," he explained. Mitchell attributed the claims of bias to "low information media types" who don't recognize Rasmussen's independence and transparency.
The question I believe is on everyone’s minds is whether Harris is experiencing a "honeymoon" period similar to a convention bounce. Mitchell confirmed, "Yes, we think we saw about a week-long bounce that is fading."
and underestimated Biden´s by 3%, which can be attributed to late ballots.
Switching to Harris was like switching to unidentified Democrat vs Trump.
Almost no one knew who Harris was! My college age kids were watching the Olympics with me the other night, and a Harris commercial came on... and they were like... who is that?!?
And I was ... um... that has been the VP for the last 4 years, and who is running against Trump now!
LMAO
IMHO the biggest tell on the election is who is willing to be Kamala’s VP.
Anyone who has aspirations beyond being this one time shot at VP took their name out of consideration almost immediately(Whitmer). They do not want to be associated with Kamala.
The polls that have been published over the last two weeks are all PUSH polls. They are meant to create the idea that the race is closer than it really is. IF Trump is up 5% nationally, he will win the Electoral College easily. This is because states like CA & NY have such huge populations.
The NH poll done by St Anslehm College was of Registered voters. The breakdown in the poll was heavier to Dems than the voting electorate of NH. Meaning the poll was rigged.
This is the type of poll that ABC and other main stream media want to use as a talking point on their nightly broadcast(that nobody under the age of 60 watches).
RE: IMHO the biggest tell on the election is who is willing to be Kamala’s VP.
We already know, It’s Minnessota Governor Tim Walz.
When is Hidin’ Harris going to have a press conference so the American public can make an informed choice about which candidate has the best policies for the country and their individual needs?
She needs to explain her flip-flopping on nearly every issue that she addressed in the 2020 primary debates.
When is Hidin’ Harris going to have a press conference so the American public can make an informed choice about which candidate has the best policies for the country and their individual needs?
She needs to explain her flip-flopping on nearly every issue that she addressed in the 2020 primary debates.
Last Thursday was Sept. 1, 2024. While the date of infamy was Sept. 5, 2024. That is to say, this poll was taken BEFORE the crash of Sept. 5, 2024.
That is exactly my point. Walz was definitely NOT their first choice. Whitmer would have been. She could bring MI. The Gov of PA could have brought the Commonwealth. The Gov of NC could have given them a shot at his state.
Tim Walz is a loser. He has a terrible record in MN.
He got the pick because their first half dozen choices said NO F’N WAY.
Umm, no
My theory is that the main stream media wants the public to think Harris has a chance to win the general election so that the public watches the Democrat National Convention. That is one reason for the polls to favor Harris over Trump right now.
I think the fear of losing would not be why anyone turned her down. Maybe it was the fear of winning. Being this horrible woman’s VP would be hell on earth.
“Ummm, no,” what?
But, they still have a few months of the heaviest part of the campaign, and this strategy will not be effective for much longer. What they did is energize the hard-core base that was dissatisfied with Biden. But they were always anti-Trump. Now they'll need to go after the independents, and they are not swayed by color or gender.
Those who are TDS or abortion-deranged (mostly women) zombies will vote the Demonicrat ticket, even if Hitler were running on it against Trump.
It’s August not September.
Kamala is copying Biden’s election strategy from 2020, of hiding in basement. It worked for Biden.
It works for the complicit corrupt media as well. The press (cess) pool should be screaming for access to both, but they are silent as a church mouse.
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