Free Republic

Let’s put aside arguments about Rush Limbaugh for the time being and recognize that he’s undeniably right about this: Were the liberals out there hoping Bush succeeded or were they out there trying to destroy him before he was even inaugurated? I think we all know the answer to that — but here’s some hard proof. Reader jimboster passes along a 2006 poll (.pdf) that proves the point. Check out question 10 — and pay particular attention to how the answers break down by party:

www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"Larry J. Sabato and David WassermanU.Va. Center for PoliticsNovember 2, 2006 Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several...

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. "Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the...

IREY CAMP: TRIB-REVIEW 'POLL' DOESN'T PASS THE SMELL TEST Thursday, October 12, 2006 (MONONGAHELA, October 12) -- Irey for Congress general consultant Bill Pascoe -- responding to the release of a suspect survey in today's Pittsburgh Tribune-Review -- today released the following statement: "Today's Tribune-Review contained a report on a 'poll' with suspect methodology and even more suspect results. No one interested in the race between Jack Murtha and Diana Irey should be fooled into thinking this race is actually where this 'poll' says it's at -- unless, of course, the interested person is a Jack Murtha supporter, and his...

John Spratt (D) 56% Ralph Norman (R) 42% Undecided 2% 408 Likely Voters, +/- 4.9 MOE

NEW YORK — There has been little change in the past two weeks regarding intentions for the upcoming congressional election; by a 9-point margin, voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican if the election were held today, compared with an 11-point margin two weeks ago. Only 11 percent of voters say the congressional page scandal will be extremely important to their vote, although nearly half see the scandal as part of a larger pattern of Washington abuse of power rather than an isolated incident. These are just some of the findings from the...

Democrat McCaskill Pulls Ahead of Talent in MO, U.S. Senate Seat May 'Flip': In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/12/06, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Republican incumbent Jim Talent 51% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/14/06, McCaskill has gained 3 points and Talent has lost 5 points. McCaskill's advantage has grown from 1 point to 9 points. The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/06. Most of the movement in the race comes from Independent...

All polls were taken from October 8th to October 10th. (Sunday through Tuesday). Polls have between 963 and 1069 likely voters EACH. The margin of error on the polls is between +/- 2.9 percent and +/- 3.1 percent. ARIZONA 1STRick Renzi (R) 46%Ellen Simon (D) 50% CALIFORNIA 4THJohn Doolittle (R) 52% Charles Brown (D) 44% COLORADO 7THRick O'Donnell (R) 47% Ed Perlmutter (D) 47% CONNECTICUT 5THNancy Johnson (R) 52%Chris Murphy (D) 46% FLORIDA 13THVern Buchanan (R) 44%Christine Jennings (D) 47% IOWA 2NDJim Leach (R) 47%David Loebsack (D) 48% IDAHO 1STBill Sali (R) 46%Larry Grant (D) 43% ILLINOIS 6THPeter Roskam (R)...

With nearly four weeks to go before the Nov. 7 election, a poll commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review shows incumbent U.S. Rep. John P. Murtha holding a strong lead over his GOP challenger, Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. If the election were held today, the Johnstown Democrat would coast to an 18th term in the 12th Congressional District, according to results of the poll conducted Oct. 7-8 by Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg. Murtha leads Irey 57 percent to 30 percent, according to the survey of 400 voters. Eleven percent of those polled were undecided, 1 percent said they...

A SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Brown defeats DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points. Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points. Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19...

A new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showing Democrat Joe Donnelly leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, by a 16-percentage-point count "has no basis in reality," according to a Chocola source. The poll results, released amid reports that Democrats are pulling ahead in several races nationwide, were backed as accurate by the DCCC and embraced by the Donnelly campaign. "Joe Donnelly's winning," said DCCC spokesman Bill Burton. "It's clear from everything we're seeing that Indiana families are sick of what they see in Washington, and that's what we're seeing in these polls." But Burton cautioned that the race is...

Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 48% Bob Corker (R) 46% Undecided 5% 500 Likely Voters, Survey Conducted on October 10th

Bob Menendez (D) 44% Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 40% Undecided 15% 500 Likely Voters, Survey Conducted October 10th

October 11, 2006 - Nelson Leads Harris 61 - 33 In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say U.S. Is Losing The War In Iraq In the Florida Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has a commanding 61 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris among likely voters, including leaners, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent are undecided and 18 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind in the next four weeks. Sen. Nelson leads Rep. Harris 56 - 31 percent among registered...

Sarah Palin (R) 47% Tony Knowles (D) 40% Undecided 13% 500 Likely Voters Survey conducted October 9th

Rick Perry (R) 34% Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 21% Chris Bell (D) 19% Kinky Friedman (I) 18% 500 Likely Voters Survey conducted October 9th

Joe Lieberman (I) 53% Ned Lamont (D) 40% Alan Schlesinger (R) 4% Other/undecided 2% 572 Likely Voters +/- 4.2% MOE

Virgil Goode (R) 56% Al Weed (D) 40% Oddo (IG) 4% Undecided 2% 502 Likely Voters MOE +/- 4.4%

Mary Fallin (R) 62% David Hunter (D) 33% Woodson (I) 3% Undecided 2% 435 Likely Voters MOE +/- 4.7%

Republican Senator Rick Santorum continues to be the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent and has lost ground once again to Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. Casey now leads the race, 50% to 37%. If undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are added to the mix, Casey leads 52% to 39%. We are now shifting this race from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary. Santorum is the only Republican incumbent to have his re-election chances rated weaker than “Leans Democrat.” The weakest Democrat of 2006 is New Jersey’s Bob Menendez whose race with Tom Kean Jr. (R)...