Posted on 10/12/2006 2:29:39 PM PDT by okstate
Democrat McCaskill Pulls Ahead of Talent in MO, U.S. Senate Seat May 'Flip':
In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/12/06, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Republican incumbent Jim Talent 51% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City.
Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/14/06, McCaskill has gained 3 points and Talent has lost 5 points. McCaskill's advantage has grown from 1 point to 9 points. The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/06.
Most of the movement in the race comes from Independent voters, who supported Talent by 12 points in September but now support McCaskill by 13 points, a 25-point swing. 91% of Democrats vote Democrat. 87% of Republicans vote Republican.
McCaskill has made big gains among male voters: Talent leads by 1 point among men, a 14-point drop from September. McCaskill leads by 18 points among women, a 2-point gain.
McCaskill leads by 50 points among black voters, by 4 among white voters.
69% of those who support Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, vote for McCaskill. 82% of those who oppose Amendment 2 vote for Talent.
Talent leads in the Ozarks. McCaskill leads in the rest of MO. In Central MO, McCaskill has gone from 12 points behind to 16 points ahead, a 28-point swing.
Talent defeated Democrat Jean Carnahan by 1 point in 2002, 2 years after she had been named to fill the U.S. Senate seat of her posthumously elected husband Mel Carnahan. McCaskill, who has been Missouri State Auditor since 1998, ran for Missouri Governor in 2004 and lost to Republican Matt Blunt by 3 points.
The U.S. Senate seat is one of the, if not perhaps the most, contested in the nation. A Democrat win may not guarantee the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate, but a Republican win would almost certainly ensure that the Democrats have no chance to capture the Senate in 2006.
497 Likely Voters, +/- 4.5% MOE.
The stem cell initiative passes by 30 percentage points.
Yawn, another day and media poll and okstate is there to post it.
IF you haven't figured it out by now, I post every poll I see come across the wires... no matter what.
I'm starting to wonder about suveryusa right now. Between this and the Ohio polls something seems up. Rass and John both are saying that both races are deadheats.
Not good news, but I really don't think it's this bad.
THe Ohio result is definitely weird.
Interesting according to the polls Males are more likely to vote yes than females for amendment 2.
Insults and name-calling are not necessary. Thanks.
Like I said on the other thread, either this poll (and the OH one) are outliers (and SUSA has been providing a few in the last month or so), or it is indicative of a burgeoning national wave. Since no other polls have produced anywhere near these types of results in these two races recently, I have to consider them outliers until we see at least MOE corroboration.
The only strange thing to this is that the Corker-Ford race doesn't seem to be heading in that direction. If anything, the Republican situation there looks slightly better than a few weeks ago.
Yet you find it "necessary" to post biased media polls ad nauseum.
Take a look in the mirror, DUmmie.
I'm getting a little nervous. In driving through my neighborhood in West County (part of Jim's old congressional district) I didnt see any Talent signs but I say a number of McCaskill.
Talent's ads suck. Those put out by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee are much better. Do the flip flop treatment that Kerry got in 2004.
Rasmussen and zogby (on Sean a bit ago) both have this a tie, with some shift to Talent.
LLS
Actually when I first saw this poll I thought of your post... fits in perfectly with what you said about Ohio.
Of course it isn't accurate. 497 likely voters? Why bother wasting your time with that number. And McCaskill is not 18 points up in Central Missouri. The last time she ran she got her ass kicked everywhere but ST Louis and KC...lost 90 of 97 counties in the state. Nothing has changed since then.
Remember the last elections with the St. Louis crap. Anything is possible there now. Like Detroit and Chicago.
Posting stuff here doesnt mean you agree with it. If it did there would be a hell of a lot less to comment on.
Why stick your head in the sand and claim anything you dont agree with is biased and those who post it are DU? You must be scared?
The Survey USA results seem odd. They have the Dems up by a lot more than anyone else in race after race. There is something wrong here.
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