Is his nickname, "Count"?
Posted on 10/12/2006 10:21:20 AM PDT by okstate
A new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showing Democrat Joe Donnelly leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, by a 16-percentage-point count "has no basis in reality," according to a Chocola source.
The poll results, released amid reports that Democrats are pulling ahead in several races nationwide, were backed as accurate by the DCCC and embraced by the Donnelly campaign.
"Joe Donnelly's winning," said DCCC spokesman Bill Burton. "It's clear from everything we're seeing that Indiana families are sick of what they see in Washington, and that's what we're seeing in these polls."
But Burton cautioned that the race is not a foregone conclusion and that "Joe Donnelly will still be out there fighting for every vote."
That attitude was reflected by Donnelly spokeswoman Katie Nee, whose initial response to the numbers was "Wow!" followed by a more somber statement from Donnelly.
"The stakes of this election and the direction of this country are too important to take anything for granted," the candidate said. "I plan to continue to work hard until election day and I know my supporters will as well."
The poll, taken Oct. 4 and 5 by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research company of Hartford, Conn., showed Donnelly with a 52 percent lead to Chocola's 36 percent, with a plus-or-minus 4.6 percent margin for error and a sampling of 400 likely voters.
Burton said the poll showed Chocola with a 36 percent positive and 61 percent negative job approval rating.
Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar said an Oct. 9 poll taken by Mercury Public Affairs, a New York City company, showed a much different result.
That poll showed the race in a virtual dead heat, with Donnelly ahead of Chocola by a 44.7 to 44 percent margin, with 11.3 percent undecided.
According to Kochvar, Mercury surveyed 300 likely voters and the poll had a plus-or-minus 5.65 percent margin for error.
"We take polls to understand reality, not to make us feel good," Kochvar said. "Clearly their poll makes them feel good, but it has no basis in reality."
Mercury Public Affairs (R)
Donnelly (D) 44.7%
Chocola (R) 44%
Undecided 11.3%
300 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 5.7%
October 9th
I think Chocola is in a heck of a lot of trouble right now. The last Mercury Public Affairs poll for his campaign had him up 5 in September, so by his own admission he's lost 6 points of ground to Donnelly. Plus Donnelly has led in Zogby, Research 2000, and Majority Watch. No nonpartisan poll has ever showed Chocola leading. (I will say I don't think Chocola is down 16, either, but this is just another testament for not trusting partisan polling)
Chocola looks to be in big trouble, still. His polling has him down one, the Dems have him down 16.
What would cause him to lose that much support in a month's time?
What I can't figure out (and maybe some knowledgable Freepers will tell me) is how Chocola could be elected so easily two years ago and is now locked in a very tight battle.
I haven't heard of any scandal surrounding him. Yeah, maybe the GOP isn't so popular now - but I don't see that factor alone causing such a loss in support from two years ago.
Anyone have an idea as to what's going on in this district?
I do not know.
Is his nickname, "Count"?
He had fairly close races the last few years, first against a retired Congresswoman trying to make a comeback, but secondly against a third-tier candidate who only lost by 10 points.
There is a lot of local and statewide trouble right now with Republicans. This district has an interstate that the governor made into a toll road and sold off to European interests. That has pissed off enough local to make this swing district consider swinging the other way. Add in Foley etc. and Chocola's in trouble.
Chocola--thought he represented Hershey PA in Congress. He should with that name.
Pollster error? (Either now, or before.)
The only other possibility is a large population shift within the district (new subdivisions?), or a very effective mud-slinging campaign by an attractive opponent...
We can only hope these polls are wrong. If the GOP loses 3 seats in "red" Indiana alone, as the experts suggest might happen, then I don't know how they will manage to maintain a majority without some real miracles elsewhere.
Is the economy bad in this state? Perhaps that is hurting. Of course the ecomomy in MI is worse and the Demo governor is leading in most polls so I guess voters will punish Republicans but let Democrats slide.
This is really disturbing.
What is going on in Indiana!
IMHO, even Democrats don't believe their own poll showing Chocola trailing by 16 points.
I doubt its close to that but nationwide trends are looking bad now. I think we lose a good number of seats. Lets pray it isn't enough to swing control.
The economy (outside of Indianapolis) is rather slow and Governor Mitch Daniels is unpopular, partly due to a road toll increase he's proposed.
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