Posted on 10/10/2006 4:34:34 PM PDT by okstate
Republican Senator Rick Santorum continues to be the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent and has lost ground once again to Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. Casey now leads the race, 50% to 37%. If undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are added to the mix, Casey leads 52% to 39%.
We are now shifting this race from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary. Santorum is the only Republican incumbent to have his re-election chances rated weaker than “Leans Democrat.” The weakest Democrat of 2006 is New Jersey’s Bob Menendez whose race with Tom Kean Jr. (R) is rated as a Toss-Up.
Most Casey supporters (60%), including 53% of Democrats, profess to be casting a vote against Santorum rather than a vote for Casey (31%). This is not too surprising given that Senator Santorum is viewed "very unfavorably" by 37% of all voters. Additionally, many Democrats in the state do not share Casey’s pro-life view on abortion.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Santorum supporters say their vote is "for Santorum" rather than "against Casey" (15%).
The survey also found that 52% of all Pennsylvania voters believe American troops should be brought home from Iraq within the next year; 32% disagree.
Santorum has been trailing in this race all year, at times by more than twenty percentage points. However, over the summer, the incumbent appeared to be mounting a comeback. In August, he had closed the gap to single digits. But, by September, the momentum had stopped and Casey again led by double digits.
Santorum is trying to overcome a basic structural challenge in the state--50% of the Keystone State’s voters would select a Democrat if they thought control of the Senate hinged on their vote. Just 40% would vote for GOP control. The power of incumbency can often be counted upon to overcome such numbers, but Santorum is not a typical incumbent and 2006 is not a typical election year.
It's not only unaffiliated voters and Democrats who are sour on Santorum. Casey attracts 18% of GOP voters 27% of conservatives. These numbers may reflect the lingering impact of Santorum's support for Republican Senator Arlen Specter over the more conservative Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania's 2004 Senate primary. Specter was only narrowly re-nominated.
This is why they actually have people vote...so we don't have to decide elections by polls.
Rasmussen also blew it in 2000.
I got sucked into poll hysteria in 2000 and promised myself never again.
Yes he did blow it in 2000.. but he was the best in 2004. And plus, like I said, his polls agree with most other pollsters. Muhlenberg's was totally different.
"50% of the Keystone State’s voters would select a Democrat if they thought control of the Senate hinged on their vote."
"Senator Santorum is viewed "very unfavorably" by 37% of all voters."
It doesn't take too much deduction to see that this was a dishonest poll, with leading questions asked, or a narative given before the "who will you vote for questions".
The only folks I can see in PA getting motivated on the immigration issue are folks in places like Norristown which have large illegal populations. Most of those folks are elderly retired union members who will vote for Casey anyway.
Ok, then if 5 out of 6 people say it is Ok to jump off a bridge, then it is ok to jump off a bridge.
Sorry, but this herd poll mentality lead mostly by the media is disgusting.
Jmo, I think the PA Senatorial race is going to be a lot closer with Santorum ultimately winning.
Don't forget Hazleton (large illegal population AND they passed a law to ban illegals from renting housing within city limits).
That said, I don't tend to watch much TV anymore (and what I do watch is tivo'd, so, no commercials at all) so I am n ot certain what Rick's campaign has been turning out. As best I can tell, won't matter that much anyway. We have Philly and Allegheny that will usually work against the rest of the state. At any rate, I plan on voting for Rick and watching my polling station like a hawk. I'm not so confident Casey is gonna pull it off with the state by and large.
Oh, and for what it's worth, Swann needs to hammer home fast eddie's promise about property tax reduction that he failed to deliver. Many seniors I know who vote dem (even if that dem is holding a hammer and sickle) are pisssed about that property tax lie. They were looking to spend a bit more of their social security on "fun things", not property taxes.
Have you been to Reading, Lancaster, Hazelton, Wilkes-Barre etc etc ? The Mexicans are in evidence in large numbers. In grocery stores in Reading you hear more Spanish than English. Over 60% of Reading High School is hispanic.
Believe me, the illegal immigration message resonates in a lot of places around PA.
My point was that I find it odd that Santorum is making this a core issue on which to browbeat Casey, in a state where the illegal population (outside of a fews towns on the edge of exurbia) is not very large to begin with.
All of those towns have been in decline since the end of WWII. Its not like the PRs are making things worse. As far as the Mexicans are concerned, they are a small minority, even among the Hispanic population.
Honestly, have not seen those vans around the GE's in quite some time anymore...
Don't care how insensitive anyone may think my next one is..I lived in Southern CA. for many, many years, I can spot the wet ones a mile away..
This is making me nuts...everytime I look at my email this poll is on the front page of AOL. My welcome screen is the small businees Finance. You can reach it just by goining to AOL.everytime I look at my email this poll is on the front page of AOL. My welcome screen is the small businees Finance. You can reach it just by goining to AOL.
Maybe someone can post this for me as it will not allow me to make a topic.
Thanks
Actually, being in the Rural T of PA, that's really been changing. I know a lot of rural people who don't mind 'foreigners', but the illegal immigrants who've come to the rural areas are taking jobs and committing crime. Not only are they working the undesirable jobs (like at the poultry plant in Lewistown), they've taken a lot of the construction jobs (as they are willing to work for less than the norm). I know a number of people who have worked construction who are leaving because they can't compete without hiring hispanics at 25% less than what they were paying their local men. Towns like Altoona have seen a big increase in crime, with drugs being a big part of the problem, but many of the crimes committed by illegals. Last year they had a triple-murder, and an illegal was just tried in the case (I'm pretty sure he was convicted). These are the kind of towns you are talking about, with little illegal population - that's been changing fast without you noticing ;-)
It appears to me that Santorum is getting gored for all his help.
Lesson: never trust a rattlesnake that's shaking its tail or a RINO that promises his support.
Yeah right.
And Kerry won in a landslide in PA.(that's what the polls said)
Nevertheless, I know the eastern part of the state fairly well. Most of the Hispanics there are Puerto Rican (overwhelmingly so in Lancaster City, Allentown, Easton, and York), with sizeable (though still not large by my standards) Mexican populations in West Chester, Norristown, South Philly, Kennet Square, and even Reading.
I think that there are enough people in Hazelton (and elsewhere in PA) that are disgusted with the illegals enough that Santorum's new ad can bring voters over to his side. And, don't be so sure about Hazleton being Democrat; they elected a Republican Mayor.
I hope you are right.
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