www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Posted on 11/02/2006 8:52:38 AM PST by finnman69
www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"
November 2, 2006
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!
Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as "The Iraq Midterm," much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as "The Vietnam Midterm" and "The Watergate Midterm" respectively.
Just as in 1975, it is likely that a substantially Democratic freshman class will be sworn into Congress in 2007 (though 2007's won't be nearly as big). Some entering members may prove "one term wonders" and others may show staying power. Most we will have seen coming. But if history is any guide, a handful will have scored fluke victories with under-the-radar, last-minute momentum. Wave elections are volatile, and in our years of publishing, we have never gazed into a stormier Crystal Ball.
Here's our best reading from the perspective of today, and as always, we're sticking our neck out on every race--no fence-straddling allowed--even if "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!"
No one credibly argues that Democrats aren't going to win at least 3 or 4 Senate seats, bringing the GOP down to 51 or 52 seats. But increasingly it looks like they will win five (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode Island, in that order, and at least one of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee). To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority.
The Crystal Ball sees either 5 or 6 seats going to the Democrats, resting party control of the Senate squarely on the edge of the butter knife. Are there places the GOP could gain a seat? The only nearly even-money bet is New Jersey, followed closely by Maryland, but both states usually disappoint Republicans in the end. Long-shot possibilities are Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington, with none looking likely at the moment.
Several weeks ago, we collectively referred to the races in Missouri, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia as the "Fundamental Five." But with New Jersey and Rhode Island looking less likely to fall to the GOP, we might as well refer to the remaining great triumvirate as the "Threshold Three." Whichever party wins the heart of these races will win control, and as of now, here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
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Solid R (7) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (1) | Toss-up (3) | Leans D (2) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (1) |
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IN (Lugar) | AZ (Kyl) | VA (Allen) |
MT (Burns) |
OH (DeWine) |
PA (Santorum) |
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ME (Snowe) | MO (Talent) | RI (Chafee) |
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MS (Lott) | TN (OPEN) |
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NV (Ensign) |
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TX (Hutchison) |
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UT (Hatch) |
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WY (Thomas) |
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WV (Byrd) |
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WI (Kohl) |
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NY (Clinton) |
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NM (Bingaman) |
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ND (Conrad) |
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MA (Kennedy) |
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HI (Akaka) |
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FL (Nelson) |
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WA (Cantwell) | DE (Carper) |
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NE (Nelson) | CT (Lieberman*) |
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MN (OPEN) |
VT (OPEN) |
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| NJ (Menendez) |
MD (OPEN) |
MI (Stabenow) | CA (Feinstein) | |||||
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| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (12) |
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Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +5 to +6 D
Click here for individual Senate race analysis.
In a volatile election year such as 2006 (and volatile is a big understatement), the playing field can expand quickly, and it only expands more rapidly closer to the election. Our list of truly competitive House seats is now up to about 60, and its composition only vaguely resembles the target lists of 30 to 40 both we and party committees adhered to in the summer and early autumn. Lucky for us, we don't have to shell out any money to add a new race to the Crystal Ball's competitive list!
For leaders of party committees, though, an expanding field is a complex nightmare and seeking to plug in to every district legitimately in play is like playing a game of whack-a-mole. They must plot and re-plot to cover as many contestable races as possible without spreading resources too thin. The side that adapts with the most speed and agility usually comes out on top.
We at the Crystal Ball have this creeping suspicion: the decision of both parties to go to bat in the neighborhood of 50 target districts means that Democrats will likely win more than enough races to take control (+23 to 30), but will end up leaving several of their 2nd or 3rd tier candidates stranded on 2nd or 3rd base with 47 or 48 percent of the vote on Election Night. Below are our best bet predictions for the current "toss-up" races; for the rest of our forecasts, see the following HotRace Readings chart.
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats in Play: 81 (151 Safe/Solid R)
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 9 (194 Safe/Solid D)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +24 to +30 D
Click here for individual House race analysis.
The part of the election that is arguably most important gets the least coverage, and here the Democrats are nearly guaranteed to do very well. Don't forget that there are nine open REPUBLICAN governorships and just one open DEMOCRATIC governorship (Iowa). Most change occurs in open races, ergo, the Democrats have had a superb chance to make gains from the beginning. And they've capitalized on it.
The Crystal Ball projects that Democrats will easily claim a majority of the statehouses after the votes are counted, moving from 22 today to 28-30. The prized pickup for Democrats will be Ohio: although the Empire State's population dwarfs the Buckeye State's, Ohio towers over New York in presidential importance and a big win there will give the state's Democrats newfound confidence and institutional thrust moving forward towards 2008. Colorado and Arkansas will also be key Democratic pickups; Maryland and Massachusetts are guaranteed to vote Democratic in 2008 so gubernatorial gains there won't matter as much for the White House.
Note that the endangered Democratic incumbent governors may all win--not because they are strong, but because the GOP is so weak this year (think Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Wisconsin, and Illinois). Also keep in mind that even strong GOP governors may lose simply because of the R next to their name (think Maryland and Minnesota). Here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
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Solid R (6) | Likely R (4) | Leans R (5) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (1) |
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CT (Rell) | AL (Riley) | AK (OPEN) | MN (Pawlenty) |
MD (Ehrlich) |
AR (OPEN) | NY (OPEN) |
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HI (Lingle) | CA (Schwarzenegger) |
ID (OPEN) | CO (OPEN) |
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NE (Heineman) | GA (Perdue) | FL (OPEN) | MA (OPEN) |
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SD (Rounds) | SC (Sanford) | NV (OPEN) |
OH (OPEN) |
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VT (Douglas) | RI (Carcieri) |
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TX (Perry) | |
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WY (Freudenthal) | |||||||
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TN (Bredesen) | |||||||
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PA (Rendell) | |||||||
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| MI (Granholm) |
OK (Henry) | |||||||
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NM (Richardson) | |||||||
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NH (Lynch) | |||||||
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OR (Kulongoski) | IL (Blagojevich) | KS (Sebelius) | AZ (Napolitano) | ||||
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| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (5) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (7) |
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Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +6 to +8 D
Click here for individual Governor race analysis.
The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they've had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the Democratic nominee again in '08).
We are probably headed for a familiar period of divided government, just we had in 1947-48, 1955-60, 1981-92, 1993-2000, and June 2001-2002. Six Presidents have experienced divided government since World War II, including George W. Bush via the Senate for 18 months. Life goes on. Americans in many ways like to build in more checks and balances to the Founders' model of separation of powers. Dividing power reduces the potential for abuse of power, or so the theory goes, and since many Americans aren't crazy about either major party, the idea of letting them fight it out between the branches, or between the houses of a bicameral Congress, appeals to millions of citizens.
And fight they will. A short and maybe nonexistent period of "bipartisan working together," which may be measured in hours or minutes, will be followed by a two-year campaign to break the deadlock one way or another in the elections of '08. And your Crystal Ball will be with you all the way to catalogue the fun. Happy election, everyone!
NOTE: We'll be back in your in-box very early on Monday morning with any last-minute alterations to the predictions list. Late bombshells, scandals, and other developments can always alter the picture. We've cautioned a thousand times in every medium: "Don't pull down the curtain on an election until election day!" We really do believe that.
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His bottom line prediction: THE SENATE: Democrats + 6 = 51D, 49R THE HOUSE: Democrats + 27 = 230D, 205R THE GOVERNORSHIPS: Democrats + 7 = 29D, 21R
How accurate was Sabato in 2004?
Sabado was quoted all day in '04 about the dems winning...answer your question ?.....lol
Leiberman crosses the aisle = 50-50, Cheney breaks the tie.
Pollsters and pundits never learn...
Based on early voting, and gop intesity this year, I think Allen, Burns, Talent, Corker, Steele, Dewine, Kean, Chaffee have a good chance of winning. I'm not as brave as some, so I'm only going say the republicans keep 54 seats in the Senate.
As for the House at worst the GOP loses 12 seats. With the Kerry debacle maybe they hold on to Delay's and Foleys seats as well for 222.
Sabato was failry accurate in 2004. He claims he is very accurate.
His final was a 269-269 electoral tie and he got Florida and Wisconsin both wrong going for Kerry.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004110901
We're proud of our record at the Crystal Ball, having forecast 525 of 530 contests correctly--a 99 percent accuracy rating. We missed one Senate race, one House race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College, and like all political analysts reading the election returns, we are kicking ourselves for getting those wrong! But it was our best year ever, and we are thrilled.
Did they take the squirrel attack on the Post Office employee into account?
Professor (Larry Sabato) Says Senator Used Racial Slur
and
Sorry, Larry, they may win Rhode Island and one of Ohio and Pennsylvania. They will win none of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee. That would be Dems +2. Add in the probable GOP win in MD and possible win in New Jersey and that's a wash.
Read for yourself from his own site:
Kerry Will Beat George Bush (2004)
The Final Predictions
Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the Democrats' GOTV efforts. But if the Democrats are even half-right about the potential of their GOTV in producing additional new voters, then Kerry will win, perhaps more comfortably than anyone now suspects.
"Spppfffttt...(cough, cough)"
Here, man, smoke a little more of this one. It's far out!!!....
W. Misunderestimated again!
Someone missed todays poll where he cut Cardin lead in half. Now down only 6pts.
The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they've had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the Democratic nominee again in '08).
He asks when is the last time the president's party failed to capture a single seat from the other party? How about 1994?? As I recall not one single GOP Senate or House seat, or governorship, flipped to the Dems in that year.
We can only hope he and most of the other experts are wrong but when even analysts on the right say the GOP will probably lose control of one or both houses, then the outlook is not good. It will take a little miracle to gain a victory.
I think what he is missing this year is the same thing that all pollsters are missing: their methods no longer provide reliable results, as vast swaths of Republican voters are not responsive to polling (or included in it), and yet turn out in far greater numbers than ever before on Election Day. We'll see.
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