Sabato was failry accurate in 2004. He claims he is very accurate.
His final was a 269-269 electoral tie and he got Florida and Wisconsin both wrong going for Kerry.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004110901
We're proud of our record at the Crystal Ball, having forecast 525 of 530 contests correctly--a 99 percent accuracy rating. We missed one Senate race, one House race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College, and like all political analysts reading the election returns, we are kicking ourselves for getting those wrong! But it was our best year ever, and we are thrilled.
Wisconsin did go for Kerry.