Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS

Center for Politics ^ | 11/2/06 | Larry Sabato

[Hoodat]

What a load of crap. Neither of the Georgia races are on the map. Both will be GOP pick-ups.

Here's my picks:

Senate: GOP Even Dem -1
House: GOP -7 Dem +8

[youthgonewild]

You've mentioned him missing 2 more races, he also missed one of the Governor races. That's a very good track record.

[vamoose]

The Crystal Ball will go the way of John Kerry's crystal clear 'no apology' statement on Tuesday. It's a bad year for crystal.

[NYC Republican]

You're crazy. Lieberman is a solid LIB. The only guy crossing, if he wins is Chaffee

[mrsmith]

Hard to find his predictions for 2002, the last midterm.
But I did!

http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:5CkQhvTEYcMJ:www.pkblogs.com/quasipundit/2002_11_03_quasipundit_archive.html+2002+sabato+results+%22house+seats%22+republicans+-2006&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=7

"Sabato has gone from +1 Democrat in the Senate to no change. Thanks to Dodd's post for pointing that out. Sabato also went from +3 Republicans in the House to +4. As close as this election is, those "tweaks" are epocal."

The actual results were:
+2 Republicans in the Senate
+6 Republicans in the House


So his average error was about 100%

No surprise these predictions are no longer on his site LOL!

[youthgonewild]

Very nice job with the html Finnman

[chesley]

Shoot. I was counting on the Wicked Witch of New York. So many losers; so few elections.

:)

[RetiredArmy]

This guy is full of john f'ing kerry $**T!!! Gov. Riley in Alabama leads in the polls 58 to 37 last I heard. A 21% point lead spells landslide to me, not close or leaning republican. I passed by Gov. Riley's rally this morning in Gadsden, AL along the Coosa River. There was a huge crowd there. If he draws this kind of crowd during the middle of the work day, people of this state will keep our Republican Governor, our local Republican Congresscritter Mike Rogers and we have TWO Republican Senators in Sessons and Shelby. Screw these democrats. Anyone VOTING DEMOCRAT IS VOTING FOR THE ENEMY TO WIN IN MY OPINION. IF THE DIMS WIN AND THE ISLOMICS ATTACK US AGAIN, I don't want to hear these whining Aholes saying a word because you will get EXACTLY what you voted for.

[Welike ike]

Youth, 2004 was a presidential year, let us look at Sabato's flubs in 2002(Another Bi-election)

SABATO said that history shows Bush will lose many House seats due to the 2nd year itch.

Sabato 2002 Senate picks on election eve.

MO- Carnahan defeats Talent(Not)
NH- Shaheen defeats Sununu by 5%to 7%(NOT)
CO- Strickland defeats Allard by 9%(NOT)
GA- Cleland over Chambliss (NOT)
SD- Johnson over Thune by 4 to 5% (NOT)

House races

MINN- Luther over Kline
CONN- Courtney over Simmons
PA- Wofford over Gerlach
IL- Phelps over Shimkus
Conn- Maloney over Johnson
AZ- Cardova over Renzi
CO- Beuprez will Lose
Iowa- Leach and Nussle will Lose

All Wrong by Sabato

[Welike ike]

Youth and Finnman are a Seminar tandem folks.

Take them with a grain of salt.

[Howlin]

Well, that makes me feel a lot better; from what I've seen of your posts, you're brutally honest about the GOP, unlike some around here, including myself. :-)

[Welike ike]

I agree Hitman. A Rout would cause mass GOP retirements for 2008. But on the flip side if the DEMS blow it, there will be a mass exodus of DEM old timers like Murtha and Skelton etc...........

[Toidylop]

Why this guy the most "respected" political analyst puzzles me!!!

[CharacterCounts]

I seem to remember the same type of predictions in 2002. But, it didn't happen. The polls were off in the direction of favoring Democrats by margins of 3% to 16%.

[frogjerk]

In line with my prediction of GOP 1 seat pickup in the Senate and 3 in the House.

[HitmanLV]

Thanks. Well, I strive first for clarity. Without that, evaluating things fairly becomes almost impossible.

[Clarity is an endangered species on FR lately.]

Then I strive for honesty, and then I try and be positive and realistically optimistic.

Unfortunately, that gets me labeled as a Troll and DUer lately. Go figure that one out! :-)

Anyway, I expect the GOP to retain both chambers with lower margins. Maybe I'm wrong. I think Kerry really stepped in it and reminded everyone how much he and the dems suck. That helps the GOP and adds some wind to the slow momentum we have seen towards the GOP in the last 10 days or so.

Fist pumping and predictions of the GOP with a net gain of 3 Senate seats and 10 House seats are better suited to Fantasy Island, I see no upside in wishful thinking and fantasy substituting for election analysis.

To some, that makes me a DUer, I know. :-)

[chesley]

Hey! Both of us can't be wrong!!! :)

[PeskyOne]

Sabato resembles Adolf Hitler...could he be his son or grandson?!! He might not look so much like him if he removed his hairpiece.

[kcbc2001]

MI races close late and go down to wire and it will be a small margin for whoever wins. MI races aren't slam dunks. Polls before election day here aren't usually the results on election day.

Stabenow won her seat by less than a percentage point last time around and she came back from behind to do it. John Engler came from 13 down to win against James Blanchard in the '90's. It's really about GOTV machines here. Polls are meaningless.

[Preachin']

"What a load of crap. Neither of the Georgia races are on the map. Both will be GOP pick-ups."

I am in agreement with that.