www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Posted on 11/02/2006 8:52:38 AM PST by finnman69
www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"
November 2, 2006
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!
Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as "The Iraq Midterm," much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as "The Vietnam Midterm" and "The Watergate Midterm" respectively.
Just as in 1975, it is likely that a substantially Democratic freshman class will be sworn into Congress in 2007 (though 2007's won't be nearly as big). Some entering members may prove "one term wonders" and others may show staying power. Most we will have seen coming. But if history is any guide, a handful will have scored fluke victories with under-the-radar, last-minute momentum. Wave elections are volatile, and in our years of publishing, we have never gazed into a stormier Crystal Ball.
Here's our best reading from the perspective of today, and as always, we're sticking our neck out on every race--no fence-straddling allowed--even if "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!"
No one credibly argues that Democrats aren't going to win at least 3 or 4 Senate seats, bringing the GOP down to 51 or 52 seats. But increasingly it looks like they will win five (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode Island, in that order, and at least one of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee). To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority.
The Crystal Ball sees either 5 or 6 seats going to the Democrats, resting party control of the Senate squarely on the edge of the butter knife. Are there places the GOP could gain a seat? The only nearly even-money bet is New Jersey, followed closely by Maryland, but both states usually disappoint Republicans in the end. Long-shot possibilities are Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington, with none looking likely at the moment.
Several weeks ago, we collectively referred to the races in Missouri, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia as the "Fundamental Five." But with New Jersey and Rhode Island looking less likely to fall to the GOP, we might as well refer to the remaining great triumvirate as the "Threshold Three." Whichever party wins the heart of these races will win control, and as of now, here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
|
|
||||||||
|
|
Solid R (7) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (1) | Toss-up (3) | Leans D (2) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (1) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
IN (Lugar) | AZ (Kyl) | VA (Allen) |
MT (Burns) |
OH (DeWine) |
PA (Santorum) |
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
ME (Snowe) | MO (Talent) | RI (Chafee) |
|
||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
MS (Lott) | TN (OPEN) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
NV (Ensign) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
TX (Hutchison) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
UT (Hatch) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
WY (Thomas) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
WV (Byrd) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
WI (Kohl) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
NY (Clinton) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
NM (Bingaman) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
ND (Conrad) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
MA (Kennedy) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
HI (Akaka) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
FL (Nelson) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
WA (Cantwell) | DE (Carper) |
|
||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
NE (Nelson) | CT (Lieberman*) |
|
||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
MN (OPEN) |
VT (OPEN) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
| NJ (Menendez) |
MD (OPEN) |
MI (Stabenow) | CA (Feinstein) | |||||
|
|
||||||||
| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (12) |
|
|
|
|
Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +5 to +6 D
Click here for individual Senate race analysis.
In a volatile election year such as 2006 (and volatile is a big understatement), the playing field can expand quickly, and it only expands more rapidly closer to the election. Our list of truly competitive House seats is now up to about 60, and its composition only vaguely resembles the target lists of 30 to 40 both we and party committees adhered to in the summer and early autumn. Lucky for us, we don't have to shell out any money to add a new race to the Crystal Ball's competitive list!
For leaders of party committees, though, an expanding field is a complex nightmare and seeking to plug in to every district legitimately in play is like playing a game of whack-a-mole. They must plot and re-plot to cover as many contestable races as possible without spreading resources too thin. The side that adapts with the most speed and agility usually comes out on top.
We at the Crystal Ball have this creeping suspicion: the decision of both parties to go to bat in the neighborhood of 50 target districts means that Democrats will likely win more than enough races to take control (+23 to 30), but will end up leaving several of their 2nd or 3rd tier candidates stranded on 2nd or 3rd base with 47 or 48 percent of the vote on Election Night. Below are our best bet predictions for the current "toss-up" races; for the rest of our forecasts, see the following HotRace Readings chart.
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats in Play: 81 (151 Safe/Solid R)
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 9 (194 Safe/Solid D)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +24 to +30 D
Click here for individual House race analysis.
The part of the election that is arguably most important gets the least coverage, and here the Democrats are nearly guaranteed to do very well. Don't forget that there are nine open REPUBLICAN governorships and just one open DEMOCRATIC governorship (Iowa). Most change occurs in open races, ergo, the Democrats have had a superb chance to make gains from the beginning. And they've capitalized on it.
The Crystal Ball projects that Democrats will easily claim a majority of the statehouses after the votes are counted, moving from 22 today to 28-30. The prized pickup for Democrats will be Ohio: although the Empire State's population dwarfs the Buckeye State's, Ohio towers over New York in presidential importance and a big win there will give the state's Democrats newfound confidence and institutional thrust moving forward towards 2008. Colorado and Arkansas will also be key Democratic pickups; Maryland and Massachusetts are guaranteed to vote Democratic in 2008 so gubernatorial gains there won't matter as much for the White House.
Note that the endangered Democratic incumbent governors may all win--not because they are strong, but because the GOP is so weak this year (think Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Wisconsin, and Illinois). Also keep in mind that even strong GOP governors may lose simply because of the R next to their name (think Maryland and Minnesota). Here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
|
|
||||||||
|
|
Solid R (6) | Likely R (4) | Leans R (5) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (1) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
CT (Rell) | AL (Riley) | AK (OPEN) | MN (Pawlenty) |
MD (Ehrlich) |
AR (OPEN) | NY (OPEN) |
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
HI (Lingle) | CA (Schwarzenegger) |
ID (OPEN) | CO (OPEN) |
|
|||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
NE (Heineman) | GA (Perdue) | FL (OPEN) | MA (OPEN) |
|
|||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
SD (Rounds) | SC (Sanford) | NV (OPEN) |
OH (OPEN) |
|
|||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
VT (Douglas) | RI (Carcieri) |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
TX (Perry) | |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
WY (Freudenthal) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
TN (Bredesen) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
| WI (Doyle) |
PA (Rendell) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
| MI (Granholm) |
OK (Henry) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
| ME (Baldacci) |
NM (Richardson) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
| IA (OPEN) |
NH (Lynch) | |||||||
|
|
||||||||
|
OR (Kulongoski) | IL (Blagojevich) | KS (Sebelius) | AZ (Napolitano) | ||||
|
|
||||||||
| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (5) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (7) |
|
|
|
|
Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +6 to +8 D
Click here for individual Governor race analysis.
The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they've had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the Democratic nominee again in '08).
We are probably headed for a familiar period of divided government, just we had in 1947-48, 1955-60, 1981-92, 1993-2000, and June 2001-2002. Six Presidents have experienced divided government since World War II, including George W. Bush via the Senate for 18 months. Life goes on. Americans in many ways like to build in more checks and balances to the Founders' model of separation of powers. Dividing power reduces the potential for abuse of power, or so the theory goes, and since many Americans aren't crazy about either major party, the idea of letting them fight it out between the branches, or between the houses of a bicameral Congress, appeals to millions of citizens.
And fight they will. A short and maybe nonexistent period of "bipartisan working together," which may be measured in hours or minutes, will be followed by a two-year campaign to break the deadlock one way or another in the elections of '08. And your Crystal Ball will be with you all the way to catalogue the fun. Happy election, everyone!
NOTE: We'll be back in your in-box very early on Monday morning with any last-minute alterations to the predictions list. Late bombshells, scandals, and other developments can always alter the picture. We've cautioned a thousand times in every medium: "Don't pull down the curtain on an election until election day!" We really do believe that.
|
|
What a load of crap. Neither of the Georgia races are on the map. Both will be GOP pick-ups.
Here's my picks:
Senate: GOP Even Dem -1
House: GOP -7 Dem +8
You've mentioned him missing 2 more races, he also missed one of the Governor races. That's a very good track record.
The Crystal Ball will go the way of John Kerry's crystal clear 'no apology' statement on Tuesday. It's a bad year for crystal.
You're crazy. Lieberman is a solid LIB. The only guy crossing, if he wins is Chaffee
Hard to find his predictions for 2002, the last midterm.
But I did!
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:5CkQhvTEYcMJ:www.pkblogs.com/quasipundit/2002_11_03_quasipundit_archive.html+2002+sabato+results+%22house+seats%22+republicans+-2006&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=7
"Sabato has gone from +1 Democrat in the Senate to no change. Thanks to Dodd's post for pointing that out. Sabato also went from +3 Republicans in the House to +4. As close as this election is, those "tweaks" are epocal."
The actual results were:
+2 Republicans in the Senate
+6 Republicans in the House
So his average error was about 100%
No surprise these predictions are no longer on his site LOL!
Very nice job with the html Finnman
Youth and Finnman are a Seminar tandem folks.
Take them with a grain of salt.
Well, that makes me feel a lot better; from what I've seen of your posts, you're brutally honest about the GOP, unlike some around here, including myself. :-)
I agree Hitman. A Rout would cause mass GOP retirements for 2008. But on the flip side if the DEMS blow it, there will be a mass exodus of DEM old timers like Murtha and Skelton etc...........
Why this guy the most "respected" political analyst puzzles me!!!
I seem to remember the same type of predictions in 2002. But, it didn't happen. The polls were off in the direction of favoring Democrats by margins of 3% to 16%.
In line with my prediction of GOP 1 seat pickup in the Senate and 3 in the House.
Hey! Both of us can't be wrong!!! :)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.