Posted on 10/12/2006 1:26:25 PM PDT by okstate
All polls were taken from October 8th to October 10th. (Sunday through Tuesday). Polls have between 963 and 1069 likely voters EACH. The margin of error on the polls is between +/- 2.9 percent and +/- 3.1 percent.
ARIZONA 1ST
Rick Renzi (R) 46%
Ellen Simon (D) 50%
CALIFORNIA 4TH
John Doolittle (R) 52%
Charles Brown (D) 44%
COLORADO 7TH
Rick O'Donnell (R) 47%
Ed Perlmutter (D) 47%
CONNECTICUT 5TH
Nancy Johnson (R) 52%
Chris Murphy (D) 46%
FLORIDA 13TH
Vern Buchanan (R) 44%
Christine Jennings (D) 47%
IOWA 2ND
Jim Leach (R) 47%
David Loebsack (D) 48%
IDAHO 1ST
Bill Sali (R) 46%
Larry Grant (D) 43%
ILLINOIS 6TH
Peter Roskam (R) 47%
Tammy Duckworth (D) 47%
ILLINOIS 14TH
Dennis Hastert (R) 52%
John Laesch (D) 42%
ILLINOIS 19TH
John Shimkus (R) 53%
Dan Stover (D) 36%
INDIANA 2ND
Chris Chocola (R) 46%
Joe Donnelly (D) 50%
KENTUCKY 3RD
Anne Northup (R) 48%
John Yarmuth (D) 48%
KENTUCKY 4TH
Geoff Davis (R) 49%
Ken Lucas (D) 46%
MINNESOTA 1ST
Gil Gutknecht (R) 48%
Tim Walz (D) 47%
MINNESOTA 6TH
Michelle Bachmann (R) 45%
Patty Wetterling (D) 50%
NORTH CAROLINA 8TH
Robin Hayes (R) 44%
Larry Kissell (D) 51%
NORTH CAROLINA 11TH
Charles Taylor (R) 43%
Heath Shuler (D) 51%
NEW JERSEY 7TH
Mike Ferguson (R) 48%
Linda Stender (D) 46%
NEW MEXICO 1ST
Heather Wilson (R) 44%
Patricia Madrid (D) 52%
NEW YORK 3RD
Peter King (R) 48%
Dave Mejias (D) 46%
NEW YORK 24TH
Raymond Meier (R) 42%
Michael Arcuri (D) 53%
NEW YORK 26TH
Tom Reynolds (R) 40%
Jack Davis (D) 56%
OHIO 2ND
Jean Schmidt (R) 45%
Victoria Wulsin (D) 48%
OHIO 15TH
Deborah Pryce (R) 41%
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 53%
OHIO 18TH
Joy Padgett (R) 42%
Zack Space (D) 51%
PENNSYLVANIA 6TH
Jim Gerlach (R) 46%
Lois Murphy (D) 52%
PENNSYLVANIA 7TH
Curt Weldon (R) 44%
Joe Sestak (D) 52%
TEXAS 17TH
Chet Edwards (D) 55%
Van Taylor (R) 38%
VIRGINIA 2ND
Thelma Drake (R) 48%
Phil Kellam (D) 46%
VIRGINIA 10TH
Frank Wolf (R) 47%
Judy Feder (D) 42%
WASHINGTON 8TH
Dave Reichert (R) 48%
Darcy Burner (D) 45%
WISCONSIN 8TH
John Gard (R) 46%
Steve Kagen (D) 48%
11 unopposed Republican seats
159 uncontested Republican seats
18 potentially contested Republican seats not polled
10 contested races the GOP is strongly winning
7 contested races the GOP is weakly winning
6 TIES
7 contested races the Democrats are weakly winning
19 contested races the Democrats are strongly winning
15 potentially contested Democratic seats not polled
138 uncontested Democratic seats
45 unopposed Democratic seats
They are saying right now therefore, that there are 188 "safe" GOP seats and 198 "safe" Democratic seats.
Their polling predicts the House makeup at 205 Republicans, 224 Democrats, and 6 tied races.
Analysis and detailed crosstabs of EACH race are available here, including partisan breakdowns by district, and other demographic crosstabs.
As a sidenote, districts polled last time that have not been this time are:
AZ-08 OPEN Kolbe
CO-04 Musgrave
CT-02 Simmons
CT-04 Shays
FL-22 Shaw
IA-01 OPEN Nussle
IA-03 Boswell
IL-08 Bean
IN-08 Hostettler
IN-09 Sodrel
NV-03 Porter
OH-06 OPEN Strickland
PA-08 Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Sherwood
VT-AL OPEN Sanders
WV-01 Mollohan
Hopefully the "official" discussion thread for the new Majority Watch polling... I've got them all posted here.
Turnout, turnout, turnout.
Is this a Demo leaning group? I sure hope so since these numbers are pretty disastrous. Not only are they giving most close races to the Dems but they are claiming a lot of Repubs who were thought to be safe are in very competitive races. Like Jim Leach and Pete King?? Hard to believe those guys are in trouble.
If that projected number of 224 D turns out to be accurate then at least it gives them a very narrow majority which could be turned around in '08, if they screw up, as they undoubtedly will. Of course they will always have their flunkies in the media to cover for them.
Constituent Dynamics is not a partisan group. You can read their questionnaires at their website. They do robo-polling like Rasmussen and Survey USA.
Bogus, bogus, bogus. Use the LS rule for reading these polls: subtract 5% from the Dem, add 5% to the GOP, then factor in another 2-3% for the Pubbie for ACTUAL voters, not people who are dead on rolls.
no way peter king is only up by 2 points over a total unknown.
This is the first poll out of King's district. I agree, I doubt King is only up two... but it is the first poll. Weirder things have been known to happen.
remember the kerry exit polls, thats all I have to say
There is no way Michelle Bachman is losing to Wetthebed.
Still no numbers from the Fl-16? I wonder if the press is trying to hide something. Like if it not affected the race down there is should not affect the race elsewhere? I feel better with the people who is use running close races like Landside Ann than some of these people in trouble for the first time.
Even with a best case Dem scenario their majority won't be very large and they could easily give it back in 2008.
I hope Shuler is a better congressman than he was quarterback ...
He's a Nassau County legislator, not a total unknown.
This group is untested and I'm skeptical, but this is a district that's been swinging more Democrat on a federal level. The 9/11 effect masked that in '04 but if there's going to be any surprises it will come in districts like this one.
Once you see peter kings polls, the rest is nonsense
That's what I'm counting on. There's no way that weak Democrats hang on in places like OH-18, FL-16, NY-26, and above all else TX-22 in a Presidential year when we have the chance to run a proper campaign.
Among others, it's hard to believe Jean Schmidt is trailing. OK her special election victory was very close but now that she has had time to solidify her base, in a heavily Republican district, you'd think she would be doing better. And Rick Renzi of AZ is trailing? I thought his seat was considered safe too. If Bachman in MN and Rep. Wilson are really trailing because of the slimy ads the Dems ran in the wake of the Foley non scandal, then plenty of Americans are just too dumb to vote, IMO. Meanwhile the Dem in Boehlert's old district is way ahead even though he got caught in his own scandal??
These numbers do seem odd in other ways though. If there were a Demo tide building that was going to take down entrenched incumbents like King, Leach, and some others, I find it hard to believe then that other districts considered far more vulnerable have Republicans leading. Like the 8 point lead Nancy Johnson has. Some of this doesn't add up. In any case, we can only hope GOP turnout improves the actual performance on election night.
That wouldn't fit their template.
Pretty hard not to be.
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