Free Republic

Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reuters reported Thursday, citing data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. The analysis covered more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, compared with just 463 involving congressional races two years ago. Despite the explosion of bets most of the trading volume is concentrated in a few races — particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Senate...

What are the odds on blatant hypocrisy from a retired member of Congress? Former Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who helped write legislation giving federal regulators authority to crack down on gambling through financial markets, is now lobbying for prediction market giant Kalshi — which has paid her firm $480,000 since 2024, according to a report. During her time in office, the Arkansas pol warned that sports event contracts served no genuine commercial purpose. Now she argues that the same types of wagers offer legitimate financial benefits, Ars Technica reported. The reversal comes amid a nationwide legal battle over whether Kalshi...

Young adults between 18 and 21, who are legally barred from most gambling in the US, have traded an estimated $5.4 billion so far this year on the Kalshi prediction market, according to a new CNN analysis. On prediction sites, which have exploded in popularity this year, users can wager on everything from sports to elections, culture and the weather. Because prediction sites are federally regulated as financial markets, they’re available to anyone 18 and over, unlike most state-regulated casinos and sportsbooks, which are 21+. But lawmakers, consumer advocates and addiction experts increasingly see this as a loophole that could...

Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps. In a post on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions. The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting...

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh soared ahead of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on prediction markets betting on the next Fed chair after President Trump on Friday hinted that Hassett might be out of the running. Trump did not reveal his final choice to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but said he would like to keep Hassett in his current role. “I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” the president said during remarks at the White House on Friday. “I actually want to keep you where...

Kalshi‘s predictions are based on people betting on the outcome of a race, not on the opinions of voters in Maine. It’s just another way for money to influence our politics.Unfortunately CNN as well as CNBC recently made lucrative deals with Kalshi and are allowing it to influence their reporting. Guess it saves them he cost of polling regular Americans who don’t have the time or money to constantly bet on things.

Rising optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran placed renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, as traders monitored signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports indicate Washington and Tehran are nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalating the conflict between the two nations. The development sparked a shift in market expectations regarding global shipping activity through the strategically critical waterway, which handles a significant share of the world’s oil flows. On prediction platform Kalshi, traders increased the probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize...

Prediction market Kalshi has drawn outrage for refusing to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade related to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many bettors assumed they had won big on wagers that Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” by Saturday after he was killed in joint US-Israeli air strikes over the weekend. But Kalshi – an American prediction market that allows users to bet on politics, sports, foreign affairs and pop culture – announced it would not be paying out any winnings on those wagers, since its guidelines prohibit markets “directly tied to...

BREAKING: Elon Musk’s net worth surges to $749B after Delaware reinstated his 2018 pay package 83% chance he’s the first trillionaire

CNN has opened up a Pandora’s box that’s worse than any fake news hoax the outlet could ever possibly peddle. On Tuesday, the network announced an “official partnership” with the online platform Kalshi, which allows users to wager on anything from a sports game to whether J.D. Vance will be the GOP nominee in 2028, to how much money Darth Vader’s lightsaber will fetch at auction. Kalshi is a “prediction market,” and users are trading “contracts” on future events. So, somehow, it is legally distinct from gambling. “As part of the partnership, CNN will get access to Kalshi’s data through...

We will find out how accurate PolyMarket is. I am posted this as a reference fot tonight and in the coming days