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Posted on 05/06/2026 9:46:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rising optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran placed renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, as traders monitored signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Reports indicate Washington and Tehran are nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalating the conflict between the two nations.
The development sparked a shift in market expectations regarding global shipping activity through the strategically critical waterway, which handles a significant share of the world’s oil flows.
On prediction platform Kalshi, traders increased the probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize before July 1.
Current market pricing now reflects roughly even odds that shipping conditions will return to normal levels within the coming months, signaling improving investor confidence.
Outlined below are what traders on Kalshi are projecting as it pertains to when the strait will return to normal:
Before May 15, 2026 — 6.9% chance.
Before June 1, 2026 — 22% chance.
Before July 1, 2026 — 51% chance.
Before August 1, 2026 — 61% chance.
Before September 1, 2026 — 68% chance.
Before October 1, 2026 — 71% chance.
Before January 1, 2027 — 80% chance.
Before April 1, 2027 — 83% chance.
Before July 1, 2027 — 91% chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
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‘Talks’ ??? Did the allies talk to the Nazi’s?
There should only be one person talking... The Iranian dude who is surrendering unconditionally... Any other sort or type of conversation is redundant and unnecessary.
But the old despotic murderous regime will be left in Iran, still in power. That’s the bad part.
US talks may advance. irgc is in control of iran. No moolahs running anything. irgc ain’t talkin’ far as I can tell.
Oh what a tangled web we weave...
‘Talks’ ??? Did the allies talk to the Nazi’s?
According to Soviet propaganda, the US and Britain were trying to get the Nazis to join them against the Soviets.
According to Iranian propaganda... They’re winning the war.
The Freyores will let you know why this is bad.
But the old despotic murderous regime will be left in Iran, still in power. That’s the bad part.
And once the Democrats are back in power, they will be stronger than ever.
“But the old despotic murderous regime will be left in Iran, still in power.”
That is none of our business.
As long as they agree not to build a nuclear bomb, not to enrich uranium, not to build ballistic missiles (the ones they have currently already reach Europe, Rome for example) that is the extent of our involvement.
The situation the Iranian people are in is the lack of a second amendment, and we can’t fix that for them, they are all disarmed and must bend over and take whatever form of government is imposed on them.
Haven’t learned you can’t trust Iran , well the idiots in charge
Declared wars and undeclared proxy wars are 2 different things.
THE IRGC IS NO PICNIC TO DEAL WITH, EITHER
I am dumbfounded and amazed that President Trump would consider any type of a peace proposal with the hardline IRGC. The only rational explanation has to be, “He went to Jared’s”!
Agreed.
Don’t forget Patton.
Iranian source denies Axios report of understanding with US to end war
06 May 2026 17:49
According to Iran’s Fars News Agency, no new written messages have been exchanged between Tehran and Washington, and recent media reports are being driven by “specific agendas” rather than developments on the ground, News.Az reports.
The report said claims by US-based Axios and UK-based Reuters were intended more to influence global markets, particularly to push down oil prices, than to reflect diplomatic progress.
https://news.az/news/iranian-source-denies-axios-report-of-understanding-with-us-to-end-war
Buy the dip.
One needs a good delta to make money.
If not bombs then talks. If not talks then unsubstantiated rumors.
FARS [May 6th]:
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian Parliament, stated that the text of a US-Iran agreement published by Axios represents “American wishes, not reality.”
Part of the Axios report claimed that in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Iran would suspend uranium enrichment for 12 to 15 years and send its 60% enriched uranium out of the country.
Rezaei said: “What the Americans have not achieved in face-to-face negotiations, they will not achieve in a failed war.”
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