Bettors wager over $220M on midterm election outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket — with big money on Texas Senate battle

New York Post ^ | October 14, 2026 | Ariel Zilber

[MinorityRepublican]

Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.

That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reuters reported Thursday, citing data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

The analysis covered more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, compared with just 463 involving congressional races two years ago.

Despite the explosion of bets most of the trading volume is concentrated in a few races — particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.

Senate races in Maine, Michigan and South Carolina have also attracted heavy betting, according to the research.

A small cluster of accounts has dominated midterm election betting on Polymarket’s international platform, where the top 1% of wallets accounted for 70% of congressional trading volume this cycle.

Bettors are increasingly wagering on more than which candidate will emerge victorious.

Some 58% of this year’s congressional betting markets focus on victory margins, while just 16% involve picking winners — down from 71% in 2024.

However, many of the narrowly focused markets have attracted little trading, according to ACDC researcher Michelle Kendler-Kretsch.

Bets on outright winners still account for the vast majority of trading volume.

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TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: arkansas; blanchelincoln; dystopia; dystopic; kalshi; polymarket

[SunkenCiv]

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[frank ballenger]

The sidekick for Glenn Beck quit after decades in order to work on his own online betting business. I never knew how gargantuan the field is.

I admit I watched about 10 minutes of Cuomo with Rahm Immanuel last night. He firmly wanted the triumphant Dem Party after it’s soon to arrive big victory November 4th, to prove to the voters it won’t be a weakling party like the GOP that never delivered what the voters wanted (ouch). He named fighting online gambling and data centers among the issues on which to deliver. If not, he said, the Dems would not get past 2027 to win in 2028. Very interesting.