Posted on 10/14/2026 4:33:24 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reuters reported Thursday, citing data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.
The analysis covered more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, compared with just 463 involving congressional races two years ago.
Despite the explosion of bets most of the trading volume is concentrated in a few races — particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
Senate races in Maine, Michigan and South Carolina have also attracted heavy betting, according to the research.
A small cluster of accounts has dominated midterm election betting on Polymarket’s international platform, where the top 1% of wallets accounted for 70% of congressional trading volume this cycle.
Bettors are increasingly wagering on more than which candidate will emerge victorious.
Some 58% of this year’s congressional betting markets focus on victory margins, while just 16% involve picking winners — down from 71% in 2024.
However, many of the narrowly focused markets have attracted little trading, according to ACDC researcher Michelle Kendler-Kretsch.
Bets on outright winners still account for the vast majority of trading volume.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
The sidekick for Glenn Beck quit after decades in order to work on his own online betting business. I never knew how gargantuan the field is.
I admit I watched about 10 minutes of Cuomo with Rahm Immanuel last night. He firmly wanted the triumphant Dem Party after it’s soon to arrive big victory November 4th, to prove to the voters it won’t be a weakling party like the GOP that never delivered what the voters wanted (ouch). He named fighting online gambling and data centers among the issues on which to deliver. If not, he said, the Dems would not get past 2027 to win in 2028. Very interesting.
Since high dollar Democrats have so much spare money to throw around, wonder IF they are betting heavy on Kalshi and other betting sites that Dems are going to win just to discourage Republicans voting in November, like the Dems do with polls every election year?
I think it’s an example of “whistling past the graveyard.” Also, having more money than brains.
In Texas: Talarico leads Paxton in every predication market listed unfortunately:
https://polymarket.us/category/politics
https://kalshi.com/category/elections
https://www.gemini.com/predictions/category/politics
https://web.crypto.com/explore/predict/politics
Texas Senate race not found on the “Plus500” market:
https://us.plus500.com/en/prediction-markets/politics
If FReepers think rich Dems are “stacking the deck”, a wager on Paxton will pay out about $1.64 for every dollar bet right now (if Paxton wins). Similar payout for Rodgers over Abdul El-Sayed.
Let's face it, Paxton is a very flawed candidate. He's not a good speaker, has tons of baggage and looks really weak when he refuses to debate Talarico. Talarico is as crazy as batschit but he very may win due to all of Paxton's flaws.
Cornyn would have been the better choice. Yeah he didn't vote the SAVE act but he still did vote 80+% with Trump. Cornyn would have won easily against Talarico. While I would have preferred a stronger conservative candidate than either Paxton or Cornyn I will take 80% over the communist Talarico. Trump shares some of the blame by endorsing Paxton in the primaries because he didn't like Cornyn's vote on the SAVE act. It would have been preferable for him to stay neutral, let the Texas Republicans decide on the candidate and then endorse that candidate. Cornyn bears some responsibility too as he apparently has told his big money donors not to give one penny to Paxton even if it means Talarico gets elected.
Lastly thee is the issue of the polls. Every election cycle it's the same around here. If the polls say something we don't want to hear, they are bogus and fixed by the Dems. Once the GOP candidate is in the lead or is closing the gap, the polls all of the sudden become legit. I've been here 28 years and this is how it's always been. For the record, I hope you folks are right this time and my hunch is wrong.
I work (remotely) with a couple of non-political Texas dudes in their 40’s. I questioned them as I think betting on Paxton is free money. To my surprise, they didn’t like him. I gather there was some internecine warfare among Texas Republicans with unsavory allegations tossed around. They probably heard about it on the top of the hour 5 minute news brief on the country radio station but bought into it. And they were both turned off by his cheating on his wife. I guess under “Texas Values” being a moonbat trumps being an adulterer.
Unfortunately, for the GOP, that is a deal breaker. Look, I knew Trump was an adulterer and he cheated on Melania while she was pregnant with Barron. My reaction is so what? I voted for him 3 times because I thought he would make a better President than any of his opponents. I am voting for a President, not a spouse. Unfortunately, too many in the GOP don't see it that way and now you may get batschit Senator.
-PJ
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