Free Republic

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh soared ahead of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on prediction markets betting on the next Fed chair after President Trump on Friday hinted that Hassett might be out of the running. Trump did not reveal his final choice to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but said he would like to keep Hassett in his current role. “I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” the president said during remarks at the White House on Friday. “I actually want to keep you where...

The organizers of the Nobel Peace Prize are investigating whether insiders used privileged information about this year’s winner to profit on crypto prediction market Polymarket, according to local reports. Roughly 11 hours before the closely watched award was given to Venezuelan resistance leader Maria Corina Machado this morning, the odds of her victory surged from near-zero to over 70% on Polymarket. The market on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner has accumulated over $21.4 million in trading volume since opening in July.For nearly all of that time, the odds of Machado receiving the coveted prize have hovered around a 1%...

Polymarket @Polymarket · 2h BREAKING: It’s a bad week to be an Iranian nuclear technician. 59% chance their underground Fordow nuclear facility is destroyed. https://x.com/alx/status/1935366805507424649

Federal officials raided the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted Donald Trump’s stunning victory, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur was roused from bed in his Soho pad at 6 a.m.by FBI agents who demanded he turn over his phone and other electronic devices, a source close to the matter told The Post. It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can...

Polymarket predicts Trump will win WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ. Polymarket also predicts that Trump will win the national Popular Vote.

KEY FACTS Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 72% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 29% as of about 8:45 p.m. EST.

NOT a voter poll - Gambler odds - Polymarket predicts Trump victory in Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona - Predicts Kamala victory in Wisconsin and Michigan - Electoral Votes - Trump 287 - Kamala 251

https://polymarket.com/elections Trump had a lead of as much as 30 points. This was 10 days ago. But then.....Some days DJT went down drastically. Like a stock being dumped by speculators - profiteers. DJT lead shrank to as little as 8 points. But the tide has turned, as DJT now leads by 13 points this morning. So I am feeling much better about DJT winning.

Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...But another betting platform, Kalshi, posted new presidential election contracts after a favorable ruling in a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C... Interactive Brokers has also launched a slew of political betting contracts.

Polymarket today has Trump leading all swing states and way ahead of Kammy in the national election https://polymarket.com/elections

Victory is not enough, it must be absolutely decisive victory

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambling Money poll - Indivdual state poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 56% - Kamala 44% - $10.2 million wagered

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambling Money poll - National Election: Trump 50% - Kamala 49% -- Pennsylvania: Trump 54% - Kamala 46% -- Michigan: Trump 47% - Kamala 53% -- Wisconsin: Trump 48% - Kamala 52%

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambler poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 52% - Kamala 48% ---- Michigan - Trump 42% - Kamala 58% ---- Wisconsin - Trump 44% - Kamala 56%

Tampon Tim got waxed in the one and only VP debate on Tuesday night. Walz dropped 35 points during the 90 minute debate. By the time the debate was over Tampon Tim was at 35 cents to J.D. Vance at 65 cents. A thirty point spread. Via Midnight Rider. It was a rough night for Tim Walz. He started out talking about Israel’s proxy partners when he meant Iran. Walz then could not explain why he lied about being in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square massacre. And then Walz closed down the debate talking about being friends with school...

Rep. Seth Mouton (D-MA), a Marine Corps combat veteran, denounced Polymarket as “DISGUSTING” for allowing customers to place bets on the fate of a U.S. fighter pilot still missing after ejecting over Iran. One pilot of the downed F-15 was successfully rescued, but the crew member remains unaccounted for. The New York Times reported Friday that a second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf, Friday, and that the sole pilot was successfully rescued. Moulton posted to X about speculation over the missing crew member. “There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service...

An Israeli Air Force reservist is suspected of having used classified information to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site relating to Israel’s war with Iran last year, a Tel Aviv court revealed on Thursday. The defendant, who served as a major in the Air Force, was indicted alongside his alleged accomplice last month on severe security offenses, as well as bribery and obstruction of justice, on suspicion of having bet on the timing of Israel’s opening strikes that kicked off the 12-day war in June 2025. Authorities have not provided further information on the suspects’ identities or the nature...

On Monday morning, President DonaldTrump posted on Truth Social saying the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” about resolving the war in the Middle East. However, before Trump revealed this information publicly, a few accounts on the prediction-market platform Polymarket were making big bets that the war would end as soon as this week. A group of 10 recently opened accounts had bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket’s “US x Iran cease-fire” market, betting that a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. Together, these accounts had bet around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and stand...

New Yorkers are embracing a free market. Hundreds of people lined up Thursday for a chance to shop at the city’s “first free grocery store” — launched by Polymarket as it and other prediction betting platforms face increased scrutiny from state regulators. The West Village shop — an apparent nod to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s government-run grocery store pitch — drew more than 400 New Yorkers, who lined up hours ahead of the 2 p.m. opening, eager to fill blue tote bags with no-cost produce, nonperishables and toiletries. “Times are hard. Things are very expensive, so this helps,” said Forest Hills...

A prediction market company best known for allowing users to bet on world events is stepping into New York City’s food scene — if only briefly — with the launch of what it’s calling the city’s first-ever free grocery store. Polymarket will be open for New Yorkers in Lower Manhattan starting at 12PM from Feb. 12 through Feb. 16, according to the NYC for Free website. It’s being described as the city’s first free grocery store, "fully stocked" and requiring no purchase. Polymarket posted on X, Tuesday, that the idea took "months of planning." In addition to paying for the...