Free Republic

What are the odds on blatant hypocrisy from a retired member of Congress? Former Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who helped write legislation giving federal regulators authority to crack down on gambling through financial markets, is now lobbying for prediction market giant Kalshi — which has paid her firm $480,000 since 2024, according to a report. During her time in office, the Arkansas pol warned that sports event contracts served no genuine commercial purpose. Now she argues that the same types of wagers offer legitimate financial benefits, Ars Technica reported. The reversal comes amid a nationwide legal battle over whether Kalshi...

Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reuters reported Thursday, citing data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. The analysis covered more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, compared with just 463 involving congressional races two years ago. Despite the explosion of bets most of the trading volume is concentrated in a few races — particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Senate...

Amanda Hirsch, host of “Not Skinny But Not Fat,” posted the ad for Polymarket — an online platform that lets users bet on real-life events — the same day the case ended in a mistrial following a hung jury. “On Polymarket it was predicted the verdict would be Not Guilty. Are you surprised? #Polymarketpartner,” Hirsch wrote. The post has since been deleted. Ahead of the mistrial, more than $161,000 was wagered on the outcome of Clancy’s trial on Polymarket. The trade wasn’t available to U.S.-based users, only those located outside the country. While it isn’t legal to bet on the...

New Vegas betting odds heavily favor former Biden Cabinet official Xavier Becerra in California’s crowded governor’s race — and it’s not even close. Prediction market Polymarket currently gives Becerra a commanding 52% chance of winning the 2026 gubernatorial contest, far outpacing his nearest rival, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who trails at around 32%. The sharp divide underscores just how dramatically Becerra has surged from early uncertainty to become the race’s dominant frontrunner.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A furious Representative Nancy Pelosi condemned an American soldier for engaging in insider trading without telling her first. The Special Forces soldier, who used inside knowledge of Maduro's planned capture to make a fortune trading on Polymarket, is accused of completely failing to loop the longtime congresswoman and former Speaker of the House in on the trade beforehand. "I am completely appalled that a soldier would use his inside knowledge to score a nice profit without me," said Pelosi. "Not sending me this hot tip ahead of time reflects a complete lack of integrity and sound judgment....

A U.S. Army soldier was arrested on an indictment accusing him of using classified information to make bets that won him $400,000 on the Polymarket prediction market related to the American military mission that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the Department of Justice said on Thursday. The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, “participated in the planning and execution of the” operation to capture Maduro, the DOJ said.

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh soared ahead of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on prediction markets betting on the next Fed chair after President Trump on Friday hinted that Hassett might be out of the running. Trump did not reveal his final choice to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but said he would like to keep Hassett in his current role. “I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” the president said during remarks at the White House on Friday. “I actually want to keep you where...

The organizers of the Nobel Peace Prize are investigating whether insiders used privileged information about this year’s winner to profit on crypto prediction market Polymarket, according to local reports. Roughly 11 hours before the closely watched award was given to Venezuelan resistance leader Maria Corina Machado this morning, the odds of her victory surged from near-zero to over 70% on Polymarket. The market on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner has accumulated over $21.4 million in trading volume since opening in July.For nearly all of that time, the odds of Machado receiving the coveted prize have hovered around a 1%...

Polymarket @Polymarket · 2h BREAKING: It’s a bad week to be an Iranian nuclear technician. 59% chance their underground Fordow nuclear facility is destroyed. https://x.com/alx/status/1935366805507424649

Federal officials raided the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted Donald Trump’s stunning victory, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur was roused from bed in his Soho pad at 6 a.m.by FBI agents who demanded he turn over his phone and other electronic devices, a source close to the matter told The Post. It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can...

Polymarket predicts Trump will win WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ. Polymarket also predicts that Trump will win the national Popular Vote.

KEY FACTS Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 72% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 29% as of about 8:45 p.m. EST.

NOT a voter poll - Gambler odds - Polymarket predicts Trump victory in Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona - Predicts Kamala victory in Wisconsin and Michigan - Electoral Votes - Trump 287 - Kamala 251

https://polymarket.com/elections Trump had a lead of as much as 30 points. This was 10 days ago. But then.....Some days DJT went down drastically. Like a stock being dumped by speculators - profiteers. DJT lead shrank to as little as 8 points. But the tide has turned, as DJT now leads by 13 points this morning. So I am feeling much better about DJT winning.

Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...But another betting platform, Kalshi, posted new presidential election contracts after a favorable ruling in a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C... Interactive Brokers has also launched a slew of political betting contracts.

Polymarket today has Trump leading all swing states and way ahead of Kammy in the national election https://polymarket.com/elections

Victory is not enough, it must be absolutely decisive victory

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambling Money poll - Indivdual state poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 56% - Kamala 44% - $10.2 million wagered

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambling Money poll - National Election: Trump 50% - Kamala 49% -- Pennsylvania: Trump 54% - Kamala 46% -- Michigan: Trump 47% - Kamala 53% -- Wisconsin: Trump 48% - Kamala 52%

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambler poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 52% - Kamala 48% ---- Michigan - Trump 42% - Kamala 58% ---- Wisconsin - Trump 44% - Kamala 56%