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Posted on 10/31/2024 12:53:54 PM PDT by thegagline
As Election Day approaches, the prediction market Polymarket has drawn attention with its $2.7 billion betting pool on the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Currently, Polymarket’s odds show Trump with a 66% chance of victory.
However, a recent analysis from blockchain experts suggests nearly one-third of this activity may be due to wash trading, casting doubt on the platform’s reliability as a predictive tool.
Possible evidence of artificial trading on Polymarket Blockchain research firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, known for digital market security and data analysis, recently reported findings that question Polymarket’s reported $2.7 billion in transaction volume. According to a Fortune report, the firms estimate actual volume at $1.75 billion, attributing the discrepancy to wash trading—a practice where the same party repeatedly buys and sells assets to inflate activity.
This artificial boost in volume, particularly in Trump’s favor, raises questions about whether the reported odds reflect genuine market sentiment or have been skewed by manipulation. *** Meanwhile, some experts argue that betting markets could influence election outcomes by shaping voter beliefs and enthusiasm. Barnard College economics professor Rajiv Sethi, who studies prediction markets, told NPR, inflated odds for one candidate could impact factors like fundraising, volunteer efforts, and overall voter morale.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has recently voiced opposition, proposing legislation to ban election betting.
Merkley argues that betting on elections corrupts democratic processes, turning elections into financial markets rather than civic exercises. "Allowing election betting is a huge mistake," Merkley told NPR. "It corrupts our American elections by turning principles into pocketbooks." ***
(Excerpt) Read more at fox7austin.com ...
When I lived in Vegas, I spent a good amount of time in the Sports Book watching and wagering on harness racing while my mother hit the nickel slots. I saw many people lose their shirts while betting on the favorite or the “sure thing.” Many residents in Sun City Summerlin lost their homes and lifesavings this way.
*The most I lost in a day was $20 because that was my limit. At least the beer was “free.”
TV executive panics that Trump winning means press has no influence: ‘Mainstream media is dead’
Fox News ^ | October 31,2024 | Joseph A. Wulfsohn , Alexa Moutevelis Fox New
Posted on 10/31/2024, 12:41:55 PM by Hojczyk
More broadly, one network executive told features writer Charlotte Klein, “It’s going to change everything” if Trump wins. The exec said it could signify the complete failure of the news industry.
“If half the country has decided that Trump is qualified to be president, that means they’re not reading any of this media, and we’ve lost this audience completely. A Trump victory means mainstream media is dead in its current form,” they said.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com …
“Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has recently voiced opposition, proposing legislation to ban election betting.”
Where was he when Hillary was at 88%?
Betting that favors Trump is subject to fraud but not the regular election. //\\\\Okie, dokie
If Trump wins, I expect Judge Merchan to sentence Trump to prison. Also, I expect the Democrat brown shirts to riot, burn, and loot.
How much you bet Merkley would drop his objection if the Feds got a cut of the wagers?
Gambling winnings are subjected to federal tax.
Polymarket has shaved off Trump winning % from 67% yesterday to 62%.today. Pretty much good news today so trying to figure it out.
Just curious, why’d you leave LV?
Actually this is what the democrats were doing when Kamala first was anointed. But since then the big Soro’s money has been backing off to reclaim his money.
It’s cheap advertising. Dump 5,000,000 early on with Kamala. If she catches on with the help of your polymarket influence...keep on going and you’ll actually make money.
If she fails big time (like she is) start selling your positions so you get most of your money back. Unlike buying an ad where once the money is spent it’s gone.
I thought block chain was anonymous 🤔 al
“… wash trading—a practice where the same party repeatedly buys and sells assets to inflate activity.”
I don’t understand this. Can the bettor sell his bet to someone else? I can understand someone betting on Camela and then betting later on Pres. Trump at better odds to cover a likely Camela loss, but I didn’t think bets could be traded like stocks.
A “slap on the wrist” and Merchan congratulates Trump on his historic victory, is my guess.
Then Merchan will jump on a plane and take an extended vacation to get away from the kooks & crazies.
He isn’t going to do squat to Trump and will be drinking margaritas on a beach until Christmas.
I moved to Las Vegas to care for my mom and dad. My mom eventually died after the third time she had cancer. My dad’s health declined to a point where he was incontinent and required an electric wheelchair and a hoyer lift. Once he passed, I saw no reason to live there. I didn’t particularly care for the lack of greenery, poor fishing, too many people motivated by gambling and drugs. There was sort of a “what can you do for me” attitude. Also, I found the courts to be filled with corrupt or inept judges which made the practice of law dull.
I moved to Austin where the music scene, fishing, and the people more enjoyable. Admittedly, the population here is largely far left. However, that seems to be slowing changing. I’m considering moving to a moving to Boerne or Georgetown.
Interesting. Sounds like you made the right choice...Thanks, and good luck.
Yeah, I'm also trying to figure out what is happening with the prediction markets in the past 2 to 3 days.
PuertoRicoGate?
Increased concerns about the Dems cheating again?
The race normally tightens in betting markets as Election Day approaches?
A combination of the above?
Something else?
I don't know. This is puzzling.
If you would like more information about what’s happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. Please send me your name by FReepmail if you want to be on this list.
They’ve been dead to me for more than 20 years.
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