Free Republic

Gambling addiction has soared since the legalization of sports betting in most American states, reveals a new study. Researchers found a “dramatic” increase in sports betting and gambling addiction help-seeking since the landmark Murphy v. NCAA Supreme Court decision in 2018 paved the way for states to legalize gambling on sports. Since the ruling, researchers from the University of California San Diego Qualcomm Institute and School of Medicine found a “staggering” growth in the sportsbook industry. The number of states with operational sportsbooks grew from one in 2017 to 38 last year while total sports wagers skyrocketed from US $4.9...

The company behind the Des Moines Register, which published Ann Selzer’s poorly-aged Iowa poll, has launched an investigation after the poll's findings were allegedly leaked on X prior to publishing, according to a new report. Seltzer's pre-election poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. The poll was published by the Des Moines Register on the evening of November 2. But an unknown social media user, who assumes the handle "IllinoisLib," posted the results on X roughly an hour before it went live, according to a report from Semafor. "Selzer is...

The FBI seized Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s phone and electronics early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted President-elect Donald Trump’s win, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur was woken up at 6:00 a.m. in his Soho home by law US enforcement officers who demanded his phone and electronics, a source close to the matter told The Post. It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the...

The Real Clear Polling average has Trump up over Harris nationally by 0.1 percent. This race may end up being the closet in U.S. history as a new TIPP poll has both candidates tied on 48 percent on the election eve. And according to the betting markets, Trump has recaptured a slight lead over Harris with less than 48 hours until the polls close after a shock Iowa poll had him behind the VP in the solidly red state.

Donald Trump started to bounce back in the betting markets after a stunning poll led to his election odds plummeting. A Des Moines Register poll, released on Saturday night, sent shockwaves through the markets after it showed Trump losing the red state of Iowa to Kamala Harris. It triggered a flood of wagers on Harris to win the U.S. election, and Trump's odds tanked on an array of betting and prediction markets - including Kalshi, Polymarket and Predictit. Harris even overtook Trump as the favorite for the White House on Kalshi. However, on Sunday, markets appeared to be correcting slightly...

It’s still anybody’s guess who will win the race for the White House but one prominent prediction market, reflecting bets on the outcome, is suggesting that there may be momentum for Kamala Harris. Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, said in a statement Friday morning that Harris “engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback” on the company’s ForecastTrader platform on Thursday night. He noted that the probability of her defeating Donald Trump rose from 38% a day earlier to 44% late Thursday, adding that there was volume of about $40 million for the Harris trade. ForecastTrader is one of several...

As Election Day approaches, the prediction market Polymarket has drawn attention with its $2.7 billion betting pool on the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Currently, Polymarket’s odds show Trump with a 66% chance of victory. However, a recent analysis from blockchain experts suggests nearly one-third of this activity may be due to wash trading, casting doubt on the platform’s reliability as a predictive tool. Possible evidence of artificial trading on Polymarket Blockchain research firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, known for digital market security and data analysis, recently reported findings that question Polymarket’s reported $2.7 billion...

These numbers vastly differ from the polls, particularly the national polls, which continue to show Harris ahead by a few percentage points. But which one should you believe?Maxim Lott, the guy who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, personally thinks you should believe the betting sites, not the polls.“These are really accurate,” he told Fox News. “They’re more accurate than just trying to look at polls or especially more accurate than listening to pundits bloviating. [The bettors] look at all sorts of historical data; they look at trends. I find the percent more useful than the polls.”“Last cycle we had more than a billion...

Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) hit its highest level since July on Tuesday, rising as much as 10% as investors bet on former President Donald Trump's improved odds of winning the November election in exactly two weeks. Shares in the company, the home of the Republican nominee's social media platform Truth Social, have seen a recent surge as both domestic and overseas betting markets shift in favor of a Trump victory, with prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all showing Trump's presidential chances ahead of those of Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris. National polls,...

This is a link to the Real Clear Politics page that summarizes where the online betting sites have the race.

Betting markets are lining up to show former President Donald Trump with a winning lead over Kamala Harris in the 2024 race for the White House. The Republican currently has a -145 line on BetOnline, compared to Harris’s +125. A negative line means that bookmakers believe the odds favor that person to win, the Independent notes. Other sites show a similar shift to Trump over his Democratic rival with 20 days to go until polling. Fox News reports after favoring Harris for two straight months, traders on PredictIt have now flipped for Trump, mirroring other betting markets that show the...

Individual state betting: Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona...In Nevada, Trump 50% - Kamala 50%...Please remember...these are NOT voter polls...These are "Gambling Money" polls.

9:56 PM PST (Updated every minute) Kamala - 51.7% Trump - 46.7%

The cold, hard world of betting markets framing the outcome of the 2024 presidential election were singularly unimpressed by the showing of Kamala Harris during her CNN interview on Thursday evening. Newsweek sought the views of two leading bookmakers and this was the outcome of the pre-taped Harris-Walz chat with Dana Bash: The vice president went from being the favorite to win with odds of 10/11 (52.4 percent) on Thursday to tied with Donald Trump on 19/20 (51.3 percent) each on Friday morning, according to the Star Sports betting company. Over the same period, Trump’s odds of victory in November...

Former President Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in at least one betting market after receiving a surprise boost as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) continues in Chicago. Trump, who was surpassed by Harris in the prediction markets a week ago, has regained his position as the frontrunner on PolyMarket, where traders on Wednesday gave him a 52% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Harris' odds dropped to 47%. Last week, the site had Harris beating Trump, 51% to 46%.

Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Betting Odds

Foreign betting markets believe Vice President Kamala Harris is in pole position to become the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, while former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidency in November took a slight hit Monday—though he remains bookmakers’ favorite with a sizable lead.

Election bettors had a visceral reaction to the CNN Presidential Debate on Thursday night, with the odds that President Biden will prevail in November taking a nosedive. PredictIt.org, an election betting website, showed shares predicting that the Democratic incumbent will win re-election dropped 15 points in the aftermath of Biden's widely panned debate performance. The website allows users to buy shares in a candidate, priced between 1 and 99 cents, which corresponds to the market's estimate of the probability that the candidate will win. Before the debate, the 81-year-old Biden traded at 48 cents per share. But in just one...

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, despite a guilty verdict that makes him the first former president to be convicted of a felony in American history. His odds have shifted slightly from earlier this week. Prior to the verdict, Trump was a -150 favorite, meaning oddsmakers gave him a roughly 53% chance of winning the election. After being found guilty of falsifying business records, Trump's odds have fallen to -112, which translates to a 48.28%...

The Biden administration ordered a ban on 2024 election betting markets, which often show former President Donald Trump winning in November and President Joe Biden remaining his party’s nominee. Betting markets often provide different insights than election polling that established media outlets perform and are often useful to academics and journalists. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule on May 10 to permanently ban betting on election commercial prediction markets in the United States, the New York Times’ Jeff Sommer recently reported, even as sports gambling became largely deregulated, soaring in popularity: Rostin Behnam, the chairman of the C.F.T.C.,...