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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday. Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.(SNIP)

October 3, 2004 Sunday SECTION: MAIN NEWS; National Desk; Part A; Pg. 1 LENGTH: 1414 words HEADLINE: THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE; THE TIMES POLL; Viewers Give Round 1 to Kerry; Most who watched Thursday's debate say it added to the Democratic candidate's luster, but not at the expense of Bush's standing. BYLINE: Ronald Brownstein and Kathleen Hennessey, Times Staff Writers DATELINE: WASHINGTON ...These survey results reflect attitudes only among registered voters who watched the debate. Their views are more apt to change than the views among voters overall, many of whom did not watch the debate. The poll,...

Newsweek is Evan Thomas. Evan Thomas has said that the media wants Kerry to win and that he thinks that will be worth 15 points for him. The LA Times has a history of being willing to sell its integrity to help Democrats. I understand; but have not personally read that Newsweek over sampled Democrats. This was a poll of "registered voters" only 750 of near 1400 of which watched the debate. The msm has given us its numbers, now here's some for them. All of the following are "effective numbers" (EN) meaning the current number has be combined with...

Saturday October 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate. Results from last night's sample were similar to the preceding nights. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews. In last night's sample, 6% of voters say they changed their minds following the debate. This includes 3% who...

"Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll." "The Washington Post adds, "By historical standards, Kerry's post-convention bounce is modest, at best a fact that set off a debate between the candidates' campaign advisers. The Bush team said Kerry's failure to gain more significant ground from his national convention puts him at a serious...

More on the bounce that wasn't Something strange happened a week or two after John Kerry was nominated for president in Boston: President Bush went up in the polls. Not just in his job approval polls, but also in the head-to-head polls that now show him running ahead of the Massachusetts liberal. Presidential nominees usually get a pretty decent bounce in the polls after a week of nationally-televised self-promotion at their conventions; but Mr. Kerry did not. His national numbers rose an anemic 5 points or so (more in some of the key battleground states), but that bounce quickly fell...

The presidential contest in the battleground states that likely will decide the election tilted in Sen. John Kerry's favor after the Democratic National Convention, but Republicans say the race is now shifting back toward President Bush. Public polling by newspapers and other news organizations showed that the Massachusetts senator got a modest 5-point post-convention bounce that strengthened the edge he held in a number of major competitive states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Hampshire — a shift that Bush campaign officials acknowledged in background interviews last week.

Thursday revealed a lot about the state of the campaign. John Kerry tried to shift the conversation to his economic plan, delivering a speech--"A Stronger America Begins at Home: The Path to Prosperity"--in California and opening a two-week emphasis on the economy. Meanwhile, BC04 spent today criticizing Kerry for his recent statement about America needing to have a more "sensitive" approach to terrorism. The dueling messages--the economy versus the war--are a reminder that for all the recent talk that Iraq has turned into a liability for Bush and that Kerry has made great strides in how voters view his approach...

The pundits are offering all kinds of reasons why John Kerry didn't get the expected bounce out of the Democratic convention. Despite the fact that Kerry's acceptance speech was delivered with authority, conviction, and energy, there's a simple explanation for the nonbounce bounce: The speech was too much like sugarless gum. The taste quickly evaporated because there was too little substance. This was most glaring on Iraq. Kerry would persuade the world, he said, to "share the burden, reduce the cost to American taxpayers, reduce the risk to American soldiers" so he could bring home a substantial number of them....

Trail Bytes Kerry on the Stump: On Thursday John Kerry spoke to the UNITY: Journalists of Color Convention 2004 and was asked what he would have done if he were president and heard about the 9-11 attacks while reading to school children Full article here ================================================================== Take this Bounce and Shove it! Regarding Kerry's convention speech last week (you know, the one where he said he defended America in Vietnam after those 19 Vietcong hijackers crashed jets into . . . oops, never mind), Washington Post reporter David Broder wrote in a column Sunday that "preliminary indications are that it...

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Aug. 2-5, 2004. N=841 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. . "If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated . George W. Bush John Kerry Not Sure .   % % %   8/2-5/04 43 49 9   7/19-24/04 43 46 12   7/12-17/04 41 44 15   7/6-10/04 44 49 7   6/14-19/04 44 44 13   6/8-13/04 44 43 14...

Democrat presidential candidate John Forbes Kerry today announced that he has retained attorney, and running mate, John Edwards to file suit against the Democrat National Committee (DNC) over injuries related to an alleged "post-convention bounce." "We had received certain assurances from top DNC officials that this celebration of my client's nomination would result in a 10-15 point bounce in the presidential preference polls," said Mr. Edwards during a news conference on the steps of a Boston courthouse. "Bounce implies vigorous upward movement. But my client's current polling numbers look more like a 'bump' or even a 'dip'." Mr. Edwards, who...

WASHINGTON -- Democrat John Kerry, whose nominating convention highlighted his war service and focused on national security, has narrowed the gap on President Bush's strong suit of protecting the country, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the race remains tight. Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates, Kerry delivered an acceptance speech last week laden with references to patriotism, his decorated military record and his qualifications for commander in chief -- a theme underscored by speaker after speaker over the four-day gathering. The images and rhetoric registered with a number of voters. In the AP survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday,...

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided. In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4%...

WASHINGTON -- No bounce for Kerry. The Democrats and their pollsters will tell you this is because the electorate has already made up its mind. But if that is the case, why are they campaigning? Why have a convention in the first place? In reality, at least 10 percent of the population is undecided, and Kerry's convention appears to have gotten none of them. The other explanation is stylistic. Kerry rushed his speech, stepping on his applause lines. Then there was the sweat on brow and chin, not quite Nixonian lip sweat, but enough to distract. Hardly. The explanation that...

Reverse Media Bounce Friday, Aug 06, 2004; 8:21 AM Four years ago, the pundits trashed Al Gore's convention speech. He sounded like a "vice president on speed," Sam Donaldson said. But then a funny thing happened. Gore shot up, by as much as 17 points, in Newsweek, USA Today and Washington Post polls. And the tone of the coverage was dramatically altered. The previous blather was inoperative -- the convention was a smashing success! Who ya gonna believe, journalists seemed to be telling themselves, your own eyes or the polls? Now the opposite seems to be happening. Kerry's tightly scripted...

No bounce for Kerry. The Democrats and their pollsters will tell you this is because the electorate has already made up its mind. But if that is the case, why campaign? Why have a convention? In reality, at least 10% of the population is undecided, and Kerry's convention appears to have gotten none of them. The other explanation is stylistic. Kerry rushed his speech, stepping on his applause lines. Then there was the sweat on brow and chin, not quite Nixonian lip sweat, but enough to distract. Hardly. The explanation that respects the intelligence of the American people is that...

President, MI 8/5/2004 Kerry (D) 52% Bush (R) 41% Other/Undecided 8% Data Collected 8/2/04 - 8/4/04 Geography State of Michigan Sample Population 608 Likely Voters Margin of Error 4.0% Client WZZM-TV Grand Rapids WDIV-TV Detroit

The 8/5 Computer Analysis formula I've devised that takes in in all available polling data, past election results, registration trends, and other indicators, and then spits out a number of how things would turn out if the election were held today. 9 EV - Alabama - Bush +14 3 EV - Alaska - Bush +21 10 EV - Arizona - Bush +3 6 EV - Arkansas - Bush +1 55 EV - California - Kerry +13 9 EV - Colorado - Bush +4 7 EV - Connecticut - Kerry +19 3 EV - Delaware - Kerry +14 3 EV -...

Back to polls Below are the results of a four-day poll of likely voters in the critical battleground state of Ohio for the presidential race. Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 likely voters in Ohio, aged 18+, and conducted July 31-August 3, 2004. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards? Bush—Cheney 49% Kerry—Edwards 45% Undecided 6% 2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo? Bush—Cheney 49% Kerry—Edwards 44% Nader—Camejo 2% Undecided 5% 3. Do you...