Post-DNC 8/5 Computer Analysis of Electoral College Vote

Josh in PA | 08/05/04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

The 8/5 Computer Analysis formula I've devised that takes in in all available polling data, past election results, registration trends, and other indicators, and then spits out a number of how things would turn out if the election were held today.

9 EV - Alabama - Bush +14
3 EV - Alaska - Bush +21
10 EV - Arizona - Bush +3
6 EV - Arkansas - Bush +1
55 EV - California - Kerry +13
9 EV - Colorado - Bush +4
7 EV - Connecticut - Kerry +19
3 EV - Delaware - Kerry +14
3 EV - District Of Columbia - Kerry +78
27 EV - Florida - Kerry +1
15 EV - Georgia - Bush +7
4 EV - Hawaii - Kerry +19
4 EV - Idaho - Bush +28
21 EV - Illinois - Kerry +16
11 EV - Indiana - Bush +12
7 EV - Iowa - Kerry +6
6 EV - Kansas - Bush +16
8 EV - Kentucky - Bush +11
9 EV - Louisiana - Bush +5
4 EV - Maine - Kerry +7
10 EV - Maryland - Kerry +16
12 EV - Massachusetts - Kerry +28
17 EV - Michigan - Kerry +6
10 EV - Minnesota - Kerry +6
6 EV - Mississippi - Bush +16
11 EV - Missouri - Bush +1
3 EV - Montana - Bush +18
5 EV - Nebraska - Bush +23
5 EV - Nevada - Kerry +3
4 EV - New Hampshire - Kerry +5
15 EV - New Jersey - Kerry +11
5 EV - New Mexico - Kerry +5
31 EV - New York - Kerry +20
15 EV - North Carolina - Bush +3
3 EV - North Dakota - Bush +22
20 EV - Ohio - Bush +1
7 EV - Oklahoma - Bush +21
7 EV - Oregon - Kerry +6
21 EV - Pennsylvania - Kerry +8
4 EV - Rhode Island - Kerry +29
8 EV - South Carolina - Bush +8
3 EV - South Dakota - Bush +11
11 EV - Tennessee - Bush +4
34 EV - Texas - Bush +16
5 EV - Utah - Bush +36
3 EV - Vermont - Kerry +17
13 EV - Virginia - Bush +3
11 EV - Washington - Kerry +7
5 EV - West Virginia - Kerry +2
10 EV - Wisconsin - Kerry +4
3 EV - Wyoming - Bush +36

Kerry 301 / Bush 237

[Josh in PA]

Here is the 7/23 pre-convention analysis: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1177427/posts that had it a deadheat at 269-269.

301-237... Not too bad in my assessment.

If the election were held right after the DNC convention, Dukakis would have been President.

It's our turn now.

[Republic Rocker]

I see a Bush 274 Kerry 258......right now and assuming we get Florida.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Take out the 27 EV they give Kerry because they picked the one poll in FL giving him the lead, and give it to Bush, who is leading the last 3 polls, and its still pretty close.

[Republic Rocker]

Iowa, Nevada and WV are interesting....... If things go well in the months to come I can see getting 2 of the 3...

[HitmanLV]

Dubya 325 +/- 25 when it's all said and done.

Both Florida and Nevada will both be Bush states in November - That's 32 EVs right there that this computer analysis is unwisely projecting.

[Republic Rocker]

I say take away 3-4 pts from all Kerry polling numbers w/GOP Convention and swiftboat ads kicking his A**!

[Josh in PA]

All said and done.. Kerry got a range of 0 to 4 point bump from the convention (average of about 3 point bump with most in the 2-4 range)

A 3 point bump from the convention is my official assessment. From a historical standpoint, that is downright pathetic.

[ScottFromSpokane]

You got Washington wrong. We're going to win.

[RetiredArmy]

Man, Wyoming and Utah don't mess around with the socialists. That is the reason we are retiring to Wyoming when my wife retires in a couple of years!!!

[etradervic]

Florida is going to Bush
Kerry 274 Bush 264

West Virginia is also questonable and Iowa is narrowing

[POA2]

This race remains were it has been for months - Kerry up slightly (which just after his DEM Convention isn't say much....only being up slightly) ...

Or the race is tied....

Either way.....it just shows this race remains where it has been for months - A toss-up -

The longer it stays close the better for Kerry - (-1 GWB)

No convention bounce for Kerry - (+1 GWB)

GOP convention still to come (+1 GWB)

Gas prices remaining high (-1 GWB)

DOW under-performing -staying flat (- 1 GWB)

GWB polling no higher then 47% in most head to head (-1 GWB)

GWB approval rating falling to 44% in new FOX poll (-1 GWB)

IA,MN and WI still in play (-1 Kerry)

NV,NH,WV, OH,FL and VA still in play for Kerry (-2 GWB)

New Payroll jobs due out with 200,000 plus jobs (+1 GWB)

IF payroll comes in under 100,000 jobs (-1 GWB)

GWB being an incumbent and tied this late (-1 GWB)

DEM 527's incredibly more funded then GOP 527's (-1 GWB)

Media bias only going to get worse from here on out(-1 GWB)

Capture of UBL, Zarawhiri or Zarqawi (+2 GWB) - With Zarqawi being the most likely in Iraq -

DOW over 11,000 by Nov (+2 GWB)

DOW under 10,000 by Nov (-3 GWB)

[POA2]

You got Washington wrong. We're going to win.

Here is hoping you are right - That GWB does win WA - I don't see GWB winning either WA or OR - (numbers just don't show it).

[Uncle Hal]

Folks I do not like the trend here. Everybody says that Bush has done well considering all the negative news heaped on him. This may be true. But what makes you think the news will be any better in the coming months. The elite media is firmly behind Kerry and will spin everything to his advantage. There is talk that Bush will get a bounce from the convention. Bush may get the same bounce as Kerry. Very little. If you look at the polls, there is barely 5% of the vote that is undecided. So I do not think there is much of a bounce there. Something is going to have to happen that is a big positive for Bush to pull this out. It pains me but I am afraid that is the way it is. Thank god the election is not today. Everybody is happy with this Swift boat revaluation. But I really think trying to tear down a guy that won 3 purple hearts is a double edged sward. This may do us more harm than. The mainstream media will be defending Kerry to the max and pointing a finger at Bush and the GOP.

[ultima ratio]

Remember how the demz were going to win FL when Jeb Bush was running for a second term? Remember how Arnold was about five point ahead of Bustamante? Both won in landslides. Polls mean nothing when the people who administer them are liberals. There's an agenda out there.

My view is that Bush wins about 279--if the election were held today. The Bush states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

If he loses Wisconsin, it'll be tied at 269. No way Bush loses FL--not with the Jewish vote trending toward him.

[ultima ratio]

Six reasons for a Bush victory.

1. The challenger should be way ahead by now if he expects to defeat an incumbent. Kerry is barely holding his own--and is not even doing that in one of the most respected of all the polls--the Gallup. It's downhill all the way from now on.

2. The spotlight switches to Bush with the coming convention. He should pick up a few points having the bully pulpit all to himself for a change. He can finally make his case to the people unfiltered.

3. Bush has been organizing since day one. He's got Ralph Reed getting out the vote in FL. But other states are also better organized this time around, with most of Bush's millions going into getting out the vote, particularly among evangelicals.

4. The gay marriage vote will be on the ballot in November in many key states. This is a powerful incentive for conservatives to vote--as was seen in MO where the pundits were shocked by the conservative turnout. In PA, many in the black community are conflicted over Kerry's support for gays. Blacks despise the idea of gay marriage. This helps Bush in Philadelphia, a dem stronghold.

5. The sleeper will be the Jewish vote. While it will go primarily to Kerry over-all, Bush will better his numbers with this key group in states like FL and PA.

6. The debates. Kerry is an insufferable arrogant elitist--and this comes through when he is given a stage on which to make academic, nuanced arguments. Bush in contrast will make his case in a straightforward honest way. I think he will not only hold his own, but will win the argument in terms of substance and character.

[The Wizard]

I agree with your assessment, plus, I believe GWB is going to shock everyone with the Black and Jewish vote....

[sevry]

But what makes you think the news will be any better in the coming months.

Who cares? Who really cares?

The leftwing 'mainstream' has been blaming Bush for anything and everything since last SEPT or so. I mean EVERYTHING - ANYTHING - DAY IN - DAY OUT. Need I continue?

And after all that, who got the 'bounce' from the DEM convention? It wasn't the Frenchman.

I think if the election were held today, it would by Bush by 6-7% in the popular vote, and probably over 300+ in the electoral college. And that doesn't give him California. And I think Bush can win California. There was a lot of strength in those 'green' counties voting for Arnold, that overwhelmed the principal 'red' county of LA.

I think by Nov you could see a Bush victory of 10%+ in the popular vote. It looks like a landslide. And I don't think anyone is taking the Kerry candidacy seriously, at this point. The leftwing 'mainstream' have to keep up appearances. But their heart can't be in it, at this point. They know Kerry's a loser.

As for the Swift-boat guys, McCain is probably bitching because he fears people going back to look at HIS WAR RECORD. Maybe he himself is not quite the hero he claims to be. That could be. As for others, I think they fear a backlash to negative ads, however spun by the leftwing 'mainstream'. But I think it needs to be publicly vetted. And I think the approach needs to be taken precisely because there may be future questions about a McCain candidacy. And even just on it face, these are interesting questions about Kerry, who not only wrapped himself in the flag at the convention, but literally was flanked on stage by the enlisted, save for his trusty gunner - who calls Kerry a fraud. This is not just an issue - but THE ISSUE - because it's basically the ONLY THING Kerry himself is running on.

[Josh in PA]

Sorry sevry..

If the election were held today.. Bush would most defiently lose in my opinion.

However, like i said earlier.. if the 1988 election were held a week after the 88 DNC convention, Dukakis would have won.

[Dane]

If the election were held today.. Bush would most defiently lose in my opinion.

However, like i said earlier.. if the 1988 election were held a week after the 88 DNC convention, Dukakis would have won.

Exactly, that is why polls are a non-sequiter today and I won't pay attention to them until after the Pubbie convention. The election is not today, but on Nov. 2nd.

24 hours is a lifetime in politics and there is still appx. 3 months until the election.

[sonofatpatcher2]

Kerry 301, Bush 237, eh?

Ah, you may want to reboot, Josh...

Before I pull your arms out of their sockets!