Ah, you may want to reboot, Josh...
Before I pull your arms out of their sockets!
301-237... Not too bad in my assessment.
If the election were held right after the DNC convention, Dukakis would have been President.
It's our turn now.
I see a Bush 274 Kerry 258......right now and assuming we get Florida.
Take out the 27 EV they give Kerry because they picked the one poll in FL giving him the lead, and give it to Bush, who is leading the last 3 polls, and its still pretty close.
All said and done.. Kerry got a range of 0 to 4 point bump from the convention (average of about 3 point bump with most in the 2-4 range)
A 3 point bump from the convention is my official assessment. From a historical standpoint, that is downright pathetic.
You got Washington wrong. We're going to win.
Man, Wyoming and Utah don't mess around with the socialists. That is the reason we are retiring to Wyoming when my wife retires in a couple of years!!!
Florida is going to Bush
Kerry 274 Bush 264
West Virginia is also questonable and Iowa is narrowing
Or the race is tied....
Either way.....it just shows this race remains where it has been for months - A toss-up -
The longer it stays close the better for Kerry - (-1 GWB)
No convention bounce for Kerry - (+1 GWB)
GOP convention still to come (+1 GWB)
Gas prices remaining high (-1 GWB)
DOW under-performing -staying flat (- 1 GWB)
GWB polling no higher then 47% in most head to head (-1 GWB)
GWB approval rating falling to 44% in new FOX poll (-1 GWB)
IA,MN and WI still in play (-1 Kerry)
NV,NH,WV, OH,FL and VA still in play for Kerry (-2 GWB)
New Payroll jobs due out with 200,000 plus jobs (+1 GWB)
IF payroll comes in under 100,000 jobs (-1 GWB)
GWB being an incumbent and tied this late (-1 GWB)
DEM 527's incredibly more funded then GOP 527's (-1 GWB)
Media bias only going to get worse from here on out(-1 GWB)
Capture of UBL, Zarawhiri or Zarqawi (+2 GWB) - With Zarqawi being the most likely in Iraq -
DOW over 11,000 by Nov (+2 GWB)
DOW under 10,000 by Nov (-3 GWB)
Folks I do not like the trend here. Everybody says that Bush has done well considering all the negative news heaped on him. This may be true. But what makes you think the news will be any better in the coming months. The elite media is firmly behind Kerry and will spin everything to his advantage. There is talk that Bush will get a bounce from the convention. Bush may get the same bounce as Kerry. Very little. If you look at the polls, there is barely 5% of the vote that is undecided. So I do not think there is much of a bounce there. Something is going to have to happen that is a big positive for Bush to pull this out. It pains me but I am afraid that is the way it is. Thank god the election is not today. Everybody is happy with this Swift boat revaluation. But I really think trying to tear down a guy that won 3 purple hearts is a double edged sward. This may do us more harm than. The mainstream media will be defending Kerry to the max and pointing a finger at Bush and the GOP.
Remember how the demz were going to win FL when Jeb Bush was running for a second term? Remember how Arnold was about five point ahead of Bustamante? Both won in landslides. Polls mean nothing when the people who administer them are liberals. There's an agenda out there.
My view is that Bush wins about 279--if the election were held today. The Bush states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
If he loses Wisconsin, it'll be tied at 269. No way Bush loses FL--not with the Jewish vote trending toward him.
Ah, you may want to reboot, Josh...
Before I pull your arms out of their sockets!