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I have done a bit of research on the Gallup website and have found some interesting information regarding how well RAT candidates perform after their conventions (or at least after July / August). Most of them hit their high water marks shortly after the convention. RAT Convention Time 1972:Nixon - 56McGovern - 37Actual results 1972:Nixon - 60 (+4)McGovern - 37 (0)RAT Convention Time 1976:Carter - 62Ford - 29Actual results 1976:Carter - 50 (-12)Ford - 48 (+19)RAT Convention Time 1980:Carter - 39Reagan - 38Actual Results 1980:Carter - 41 (+2)Reagan - 51 (+13)RAT Convention Time 1984:Reagan - 51 Mondale - 43Actual Results...

The race for the White House remains tight with the Democratic nominee receiving a small bump after his party's convention in Boston. In addition, little movement in the race can be expected in the remaining 90 days of the campaign as majorities of voters say they strongly support their candidate and that their minds are definitely made up, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday.While not moving the race numbers much, the convention does appear to have improved Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry's (search) image with the public. At the same time, President George W. Bush's job approval rating is at...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,128148,00.html

Which campaign is really in trouble?August 5th, 2004 The Baehr EssentialsBased on events of the past few months, the Kerry Edwards ticket should now have vaulted to a comfortable lead of between five and ten points. In April, American casualties in Iraq soared to their highest one month level since the war began.  The following month came the revelation of the Abu Ghraib scandal.  In early July, Senator John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate to almost universal media acclaim.  The Democratic convention went off smoothly, and Kerry’s acceptance speech to a decent size TV audience was generally well...

August 05, 2004 No Change for Kerry, Bush Favorable Ratings Post-Convention Edwards’, Heinz Kerry’s favorable ratings increased by Jeffrey M. Jones GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- CNN/USA Today/Gallup's weekend poll shows that the Democratic Party's convention in Boston last week did little to change whether Americans view Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry favorably or unfavorably. However, vice presidential nominee John Edwards' favorable rating improved, as did that of the Democratic Party more generally. Teresa Heinz Kerry's favorable and unfavorable ratings both increased significantly following the convention. And while the public's views of President George W. Bush didn't change following...

What the Democrats Won't Tell You Don Feder The Democrats’ cure for insomnia ended a week ago. And, guess what? No Kerry bounce. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. A post-convention Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey showed that among likely voters, Kerry actually lost ground. The last pre-convention poll had Kerry at 49 percent, Bush with 47 percent. The weekend after the Boston bash, the same survey showed Kerry 47 percent, Bush 50 percent -- a negative bounce. This is unheard of. Normally, a presidential candidate comes out of his party’s convention picking up 10 to 12 points. So, what happened? First, not many watched...

Today Gallup lets us peek a bit more behind the long, heavy, woolen skirts of dreary, geriatric Leftism. Unlike many of the establishment "polling organizations" which are wholly owned subsidiaries of the DNC, Gallup has a bit of a reputation to protect. Polling, after all, is its only business. Poll "results" which make informed people laugh out loud until tears roll down their cheeks (e.g. CBS News "polls" or Newsweek "polls") are simply untenable for Gallup. So it is worth looking at what Gallup told us today. The brief summary of the Gallup results is that Kerry-Edwards is a Japanese...

Georgia: Bush 53% Kerry 42% In Georgia, Bush leads by 80% to 18% among conservatives. Kerry leads 75% to 21% among liberals and 57% to 35% among self-described moderates. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of all Georgia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's unchanged from a month ago and and well above his national Job Approval rating. Iowa: Kerry 48% Bush 45% In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports polling data shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Al Gore narrowly carried Iowa by a...

Marist College Poll. July 30-Aug. 2, 2004. N=839 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.5), including 573 likely voters (MoE ± 4). . "If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" . Bush/ Cheney Kerry/ Edwards Nader/ Camejo Unsure % % % % Among likely voters: 7/30 - 8/2/04 47 47 1 5 . 7/12-15/04 46 47 1 6 . . Among registered voters -- with leaners: 7/30 - 8/2/04 46 47 3 4 . 7/12-15/04 46 47 3 4 .

The Gallup Poll goes on at length about how Americans view Kerry more favorably on this or that index (“strong leader,” “cares about people like me,” etc. etc.) as a result of the Democratic convention, but then Gallup reluctantly admits that among likely voters, a much more significant population, the results are the opposite: Kerry lost ground, on all indicia, during the convention. Now, since likely voters are certainly a higher-IQ contingent than people who don’t bother to vote, what that means is that Kerry only gained in esteem among low-IQ folks who are too ignorant, lazy, or indifferent to...

If you've read or watched news reports about polls taken since the Democratic convention, you've probably heard that John Kerry didn't get much of a "bounce." These reports miss the important data. Let's look at the numbers. 1. What's changed. Three major media polls have been taken since the convention: ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, and CNN/USA Today. Prior to the convention, Kerry's favorable rating was nine points higher than his unfavorable rating in the ABC poll. Since the convention, this margin has grown to 19 points. Bush's positive margin on the same question is just two points.

Wednesday August 04, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows the race for the White House is tied once again--Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush each attract 46% of the vote.

According to Marist poll of likely voters. Kerry has lost 1 point post convention. Now even with Bush. 47-47, funny they show only 1% for Nader. If you average all these polls, Kerry must have an absolute zero bounce now. Has *any* challenger to the presidency won with a zero bounce? I read never. I predict Bush should get at least a solid 4 bounce, at least! I hope for more. But I am confident Bush will do MUCH better then Kerry. The word is getting out on Kerry, the funny thing is, Its Kerry spreading the word! Hail to...

President, TN 8/3/2004 Bush (R) 48% Kerry (D) 46% Other/Undecided 6% Data Collected 7/31/04 - 8/2/04 Geography State of Tennessee Sample Population 586 Likely Voters Margin of Error 4.2% Client WBIR-TV Knoxville

In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 46%. In Election 2000, Bush won Virginia by nine percentage points, beating Al Gore 53% to 44%. This state has consistently remained much closer than the Bush campaign would like. While it's been decades since a Democrat has won the state, all indications are that it is competitive in the summer of 2004. Last month, our Virginia poll found Bush leading 48% to 45%. The month before, it was Bush 47% Kerry 45%. As a result, Virginia remains in the "Toss-up"...

Dem’s Bounce, Or No – Clintons Still Rule The Democratic National Convention came and went, and I was wrong. When I wrote to you last Tuesday, I had watched Bill and Hillary Clinton speak on the opening night last Monday. As I noted, they were fabulous, especially Bill. I honestly thought he was at his career best. And I thought the Clintons had set the stage for a full-blown Democratic bounce of 10-15 points, or maybe even more. (Please note that as a conservative, I am no great fan of Bill Clinton, but I do believe he is one of...

KING 5 Poll: Kerry lead widening 05:39 PM PDT on Tuesday, August 3, 2004 SEATTLE - Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's lead in the polls in the state of Washington is widening, according to the latest KING 5 News/SurveyUSA poll. The poll of 585 adults found that if the election were held today, Kerry would best Bush by 8 percentage points, polling 51 percent of likely voters against Bush's 43 percent and taking all 11 of Washington's electoral college votes. Three percent of likely voters said they would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader. The state is sharply divided geographically,...

Poll: Problems for Incumbents in PA? Aug 3, 2004 6:32 pm US/Eastern Though the election is still three months away, two new political polls here in Pennsylvania are sure to generate some national attention. The latest numbers from the exclusive KDKA-TV/Survey USA News Poll of 721 likely voters suggests some problems for two prominent incumbents: US Senator Arlen Specter and President George W. Bush. At the Bush-Cheney rally in Pittsburgh last weekend, Senator Rick Santorum got a standing ovation; but that wasn't the case for Specter. GOP supporters actually booed the senior senator, which may explain why Specter -- who...

Democrat presidential candidate John Forbes Kerry today announced that he has retained attorney, and running mate, John Edwards to file suit against the Democrat National Committee (DNC) over injuries related to an alleged "post-convention bounce." "We had received certain assurances from top DNC officials that this celebration of my client's nomination would result in a 10-15 point bounce in the presidential preference polls," said Mr. Edwards during a news conference on the steps of a Boston courthouse. "Bounce implies vigorous upward movement. But my client's current polling numbers look more like a 'bump' or even a 'dip'." Mr. Edwards, who...