What the Pundits said about why John Kerry didn't get a "Bounce" from his Convention

Various ^ | August 2004 | Various

[John Thornton]

"Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll."

"The Washington Post adds, "By historical standards, Kerry's post-convention bounce is modest, at best a fact that set off a debate between the candidates' campaign advisers. The Bush team said Kerry's failure to gain more significant ground from his national convention puts him at a serious disadvantage for the fall, while Kerry advisers said the electorate is already so polarized and partisans so energized that there was far less chance for a big bounce this year."

"The CBS News poll was conducted among a sample of 1,052 adults, interviewed by telephone July 30-August 1, 2004. There were 991 registered voters in the sample. The poll has a three-point margin of error. "The lack of a bounce out of Boston could be due to the small number of voters who were undecided before the convention began. Nearly nine in ten registered Democrats or Republicans say they intend to support the party's nominee."

"Professor Kelly Patterson, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah Q: Why didn't Kerry get a bigger bounce in public opinion polls after the Democratic National Convention? A: I think the big news there is that there aren't as many undecideds. This is a campaign that has historically started much earlier than campaigns in the past. And this is one where most people have already made up their minds."

"Professor John Bruce, University of Mississippi, Oxford Q: Why didn't Kerry get a bigger bounce after the Democratic National Convention? A: The bounce historically has come from excitement and coverage. Excitement over the pick -- [remember] when George H.W. Bush got off the airplane and announced that "My pick is Dan Quayle." So, there was news there, things that are worthy of conversation. The last couple of conventions have not had that. The other thing that's required for a bounce is coverage, and this year we had less coverage of the convention than we have ever had before."

"Professor Philip Klinkner, Hamilton College, Clinton, N.Y. Q: Why didn't Kerry get a bigger bounce after the Democratic National Convention? A: One explanation is you have all of these different polls, and some say you got a good bounce and some say you didn't, so it depends on the poll. The second one is that the potential for a bounce this year was lower than in previous years because you don't have as many undecided voters."

"Professor Susan MacManus, University of South Florida, Tampa Q: Why didn't Kerry get a bigger bounce after the Democratic National Convention? A: There are several reasons. People have mentioned a lot of them. One is that so many people have their minds made up. But, I think that some of it is...people are into reality TV programs that are exciting and risky and all that, and this wasn't that kind of speech. People who watched were people who pretty much already had their minds made up. And I'm thinking that a lot of it is...with so many choices between the Internet and different cable stations...a political show really is not one that can necessarily compete [for] the younger population, which is the one that's most in flux and the one that can be convinced...."

[John Thornton]

I thought it would be interesting to see how the media twisted itself into knots to argue that Kerry's lack of bounce (or negative bounce) was entirely understandable and expected.

Because being a liberal means never having to say you were wrong, I thought you might enjoy just how wrong these pundits were. This is not one article--but portions of several. Feel free to post your own contributions to this thread.

[sonofagun]

Bounce TTT...LOL

[Diago]

Great work! My friends and I were just talking about this last night.

[BP2]

They are going to sink into the deepest levels of depression over the next few months. The self-analysis will be non-stop. They have no more anger -- it's all spent -- that's all they've had for the last year.

Haven't you heard: Suicide watch over at DU.

[MattMa]

2004 Presidential Race - Head to Head
Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Spread
RCP Average	8/30 - 9/2	48.5%	44.3%	Bush +4.2
Time (926 LV)	8/31 - 9/2	51%	41%	Bush +10
Rasmussen (2,000 LV)	8/31 - 9/2	49%	45%	Bush +4
Zogby (1001 LV)	8/30 - 9/2	46%	44%	Bush +2
ARG (800 LV)	8/30 - 9/1	48%	47%	Bush +1

[Batrachian]

I would go over there to see, but it's like swimming in a giant vat of vomit.

Poor dumb bastards. So hateful and stupid. They should be put out of their misery.

[GROOVY]

The Bush team benefited from that sort of analysis because it lowered expectatrions for the Bush Convention.

Anyway, the real reason Kerry got a negative bounce was because he featured Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Al Sharpton and himself. They are not exactly reassuring leaders to the general public.

[uvular]

And add Terry McAwful to the list. He was on Tony Snow's show Before the Dem Convention, apparantly giving the msm their talking point on no-bounce. He said the same thing as most above did-that there are less undecideds this year and they were going in to convention not expecting any significant bounce...

[Go Gordon]

Anyway, the real reason Kerry got a negative bounce was because he featured Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Al Sharpton and himself. They are not exactly reassuring leaders to the general public.

You forgot to mention the number one reason - the candidate himself. What a loser. He makes Bob Dole look Reganesque.

[capydick]

While watching the convention I kept thinking that these guys really have their act together and that this must have been the best convention in a long,long,time, for either party. If this team,working for President Bush, can put together such an organized convention, imagine what a great job they do for the President, day to day things we never see but, have a huge impact on all of us nonetheless.

Because President Bush is surrounded by such a great team, executing great things for America, the media, libs and RAT's hate him. I believe events in the next four years and the actions that President Bush takes, could possibly make the RAT party almost irrelevent. The RAT's know this and that's why this will probably be the nastiest campaign ever. The Rat's and the media wing of the RAT party will be fighting more for their survival and relevancy than the Presidency.

[jeffc]

I think the big news there is that there aren't as many undecideds.

So the big question is, did the Pres pull some Kerry-leaning "undecideds" over to his side, or were these "pundits" spinning leftward?
Inquiring minds want to know!

[Jeff Gordon]

I'm not a victim, I am a conservative and if you get to close, I just may bite.

ROTFLMAO

[dufekin]

Some Kerry supporters actually got to see the Republican convention without the intense spin of the nonpartisan press. They learned that Bush really knows what he's doing, believes in believing in that in which he believes, and can walk instead of flip-flopping. That presentation made them reconsider their decision, putting them squarely in the Bush camp. Many of these people are level-headed; they do not enjoy paying taxes to fund the insatiable appetites of more excessive bureaucracy, and they do not want to live in fear of the terrorists.

[GaretGarrett]

[Suicide watch over at DU.]
...............

Don't you love how they scream "Troll! Traitor! Freeper! & worse at any poster who tries to introduce a note of realism?

DU is a graduate-level course in what we're up against--also in how NOT to behave on FR.

[Phrostie]

I think the big news there is that there aren't as many undecideds.

By the logic (so few undecided) would it not follow that Bush would also get no Bounce?

Oh the poor Democrat ostriches!!

[jocon307]

"While watching the convention I kept thinking that these guys really have their act together and that this must have been the best convention in a long,long,time, for either party. If this team,working for President Bush, can put together such an organized convention, imagine what a great job they do for the President, day to day..."

Yep, that's what I was thinking too. I also thought that we've got all the energy, all the imagination on our side.

I know some people didn't like the "Live From New York" Saturday Night Live spoof opening, but I did. I thought it was very witty and well done. And it shows we've got a sense of humor. The Dem convention was awful, it was manifestly dull, droning, false, boring and did nothing but reveal them as a party of an already failed idea, that is to say, as Arnold did, Socialism.

[John Thornton]

I believe events in the next four years and the actions that President Bush takes, could possibly make the RAT party almost irrelevent.

I wish that were true but as long as there is a group of people who believe they can use government to steal money from the productive class and give it to them, there will always be a RAT party (even if they rename it the Socialist Party like it should be named).

[WashingtonSource]

Kool-Aid is selling at an all time high at the du.

And so is the cyanide to go with it.