"Reporting for my ass kicking, Sir!"
Posted on 08/13/2004 2:49:55 PM PDT by Roscoe Karns
Thursday revealed a lot about the state of the campaign. John Kerry tried to shift the conversation to his economic plan, delivering a speech--"A Stronger America Begins at Home: The Path to Prosperity"--in California and opening a two-week emphasis on the economy. Meanwhile, BC04 spent today criticizing Kerry for his recent statement about America needing to have a more "sensitive" approach to terrorism.
The dueling messages--the economy versus the war--are a reminder that for all the recent talk that Iraq has turned into a liability for Bush and that Kerry has made great strides in how voters view his approach to terrorism, the old conventional wisdom that Kerry needs the campaign to be about the economy while Bush needs it to be about national security has returned.
The shift in emphasis by Kerry suggests his campaign realizes that it may have missed an opportunity by making his convention almost entirely about strength and national security. Kerry's aides insist that there was no bounce available to him because of the polarized electorate, but other Democrats disagree. They point out that numerous polls show there is a majority for change in America. Whether one looks at the percentage who say the country is on the wrong track or the percentage who say Bush should not be reelected, there are indeed enough voters looking for a new direction that Kerry should have had a bigger bounce.
The most persuasive proponents of this view are Stanley Greenberg and James Carville, who recently released a post-convention memo [PDF] bemoaning Kerry's missed opportunity. The duo note that "the small shift in the vote is disappointing" because "[w]e hoped the convention would have pushed up the Kerry vote at least to the proportion wanting change--and then some more, reflecting the usual unreality of many voters momentarily taken with all the excitement and hope." They add, "John Kerry did not make broad gains from the convention." Furthermore:
On personal and leadership attributes, few moved up more than a few points and some, like cares about you, remained constant. The convention did not diminish any of the negative attributes, like being too liberal, flip flopping and lack of clear ideas, and too ready to raise taxes.
On the issues, the number choosing Kerry barely rose on the economy (up 1 point), education (up 2), taxes (down 2), creating jobs in America (up 2), raising middle class living standards (up 2), and energy independence (no change).
The problem? Greenberg and Carville say Kerry overdid the whole military thing:
We think that the bounce was contained largely because the message -- stronger at home and respected in the world -- is defined purely by the convention’s focus on strength, military, security and foreign policy. That has shaped the electoral choice, as the regression model shows Iraq, foreign policy and hopefulness as the strongest predictors of the vote. But Kerry is even with Bush on Iraq and up only 4 points on foreign policy. While that is important accomplishment, leaving the message there also leaves Kerry short of the majority that is currently possible.
Kerry worked so hard to neutralize Bush's strengths that he moved the debate completely off his own most advantageous terrain. It's no coincidence that he is now working hard to move it back.
Greenberg and Carville's observations are backed up by data from a Pew Research Center poll [PDF] released today. It bolsters the case that Kerry should pivot to bread and butter Democratic issues. That is apparently the best way for him to reach swing voters.
According to Pew, swing voters have fairly caricatured views of the two candidates. By 51% to 17% swing voters think Bush can handle terrorism better, and by 44% to 24% they think he can handle Iraq better. Talking about these issues seems to be a losing proposition for Kerry. In addition, Bush retains his traditional advantage on character issues. He has big leads among swing voters on every character question Pew asked about, except whether he "cares about people."
On the other hand, Kerry holds lopsided advantages among swing voters on the economy (41% to 28%), education (49% to 23%), jobs (50% to 23%), and health care (52% to 17%). It's no surprise that Kerry is now trying to return to these issues while Bush is sticking to Iraq and questions of character. The campaign seems to have come full circle.
I'll buy that.
As for the post, I shall BFLR (since I'm cubicle bound).
In other words, even Democrats are conceding the Convention was a flop. If Kerry thinks he can win by doing an Al Gore Lite, he's more desperate than I imagined. First Bush Lite, now Gore Lite, then who knows? Kerry has more political revisions than Microsoft has Windows Service Pack releases.
Kerry is now just like "I Love Lucy" on the candy factory assembly line, he has run out of pockets to hide the bon-bon's.
Relying on statistics and positioning rather than principle is one more reason people cannot abide the Dems.
Thanks dude. You just made me realize how old I've gotten.
sorry
I couldn't put it better myself. Kerry will say anything to make himself look good. Its all sizzle, no substance and much of the time you aren't even sure you're getting the sizzle.
So what happened to the party line that the Dims are confident they can cruise to victory??
What? No Viet Nam?
What economic plan? Or could it be the Swift Boat Vets are drawing blood...
I expect us to lose in the summer. Fortunately the election's not til the fall. Let's not panic.
Not that I have a thorough understanding of Florida's political leanings, but the pre-election polls in the 2002 Florida governor's race were so far off the mark that I can't possibly take them seriously.
Kerry is infamous in Boston for sneering his catchphrase, "Do you know who I am?!", at anyone who questions the way he pushes to the front of the line at every public event. He has the same kind of deep caring and empathy for the commoners that hasn't been seen in a leader since Louis XIV, who shared a similar lifestyle. And since he's never held a private sector, executive job in his life, exactly what kind of jobs has he ever "created," other than jobs for valets and yacht club chefs?
These must be the same gibbering morons who popped up in a recent poll, declaring their belief that Bush has more money than Kerry, when in fact, he's only earned more money than Kerry. Unless you count living with Teresa as "earning his money," which is one point I might be willing to concede.
PAY ATTENTION!!
This memo is important: It means they want to rerun the 1992 playbook.
2 issues:
1) The ECONOMY IS DOING BETTER & the tax cuts worked.
We have to get Americans to understand and believe that message. Dont let Democrats talk down the economy!
The polling deficits for Bush show that he is vulnerable there.
2) KERRY IS A LIBERAL.
That is not being raised, and it should be.
19% of self-described Conservatives are going for Kerry.
Bush needs to fix that or he is in trouble.
It bolsters the case that Kerry should pivot to bread and butter Democratic issues. That is apparently the best way for him to reach swing voters. And, then, we smack them in the face with the reality that terrorists could blow them up on their way to work tomorrow morning, rendering all these 'bread and butter issues' secondary, and that Kerry is not the man they want to see handling that. Advantage Bush.
This article points to a real weakness in the rat strategy:
The Kerry campaign is out of sync with his percieved strengths. According to these guys, the rats have the economy angle bagged. Unfortunately for the K campaign, JF'nK decided to zig when he should have zagged and chose to portray himself as the warrior at his convention, thereby losing the focus on the economy.
The Bush campaign and the Swifties have hammered him on the national security angle. Net gain Kerry: 0 Net gain Bush: 3-4
When Kerry tacks back to the economy, not only will he be dragging along the damage from his foray into Cambodia but he will be setting himself up for some serious attacks on his economic points and proposals. He can't lead the debate from behind.
The rats made a serious tactical error with that 'reporting for duty' bullsh*t. The K campaign is now off balance and out of sync while Bush is poised for his convention and the national spotlight where Kerry will get a one week prime time hammering.
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