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Posted on 08/23/2004 5:04:02 AM PDT by stockpirate
More on the bounce that wasn't
Something strange happened a week or two after John Kerry was nominated for president in Boston: President Bush went up in the polls. Not just in his job approval polls, but also in the head-to-head polls that now show him running ahead of the Massachusetts liberal.
Presidential nominees usually get a pretty decent bounce in the polls after a week of nationally-televised self-promotion at their conventions; but Mr. Kerry did not. His national numbers rose an anemic 5 points or so (more in some of the key battleground states), but that bounce quickly fell to earth a week or so later.
If that had happened to Mr. Bush at his convention, which will be held at the end of this month, the liberal national news media would have been all over him with political obituaries. But strangely, Mr. Kerry's post-convention anemia elicited little serious analysis from the political chattering class on the left. I wonder why.
But back to the latest polls. One week after the convention, the Gallup Poll -- the most respected polling organization in the business -- went into the field to ask likely voters what they thought of the job that the president was doing and who they intended to vote for on Nov. 2. The response: Mr. Bush's job approval scores had inched up from 50 percent to 51 percent. No president has ever lost re-election when his job approval numbers were more than 50 percent at this point in the campaign.
(Excerpt) Read more at insider.washingtontimes.com ...
ping
well that is mildly encouraging
i just hope we get a better bounce out of our convention next week and Bush gets reelected handily
Did you see the report re: Bush by 57.7 percent?
With all due respect, IMO all kinds of voters are going to come out of the woodwork (voters who don't answer polls) in this election on both sides. The dims are going to pull every dirty trick in the book as well.
The election will turn on who is best suited to be leader. President Bush bests John F*ckin' by a whopping seventeen percentage points - 57% to 40.% Do not be surprised if the final election results in November track this figure.
Oh yeh, we count da votes. Den we count 'em again. Just ta be on da safe side.
"i just hope we get a better bounce out of our convention next week and Bush gets reelected handily"
me too. The author is assuming that Bush will get a better bounce than kerry did. That might not happen, if the electorate is so evenly divided there may not be the numbers there to give either one a bounce of more than a few points.
This election will very likely turn on Getting Out The Vote.
How can you get a bounce from a convention if nobody watches it?
I don't expect Bush will get a bounce either and when he doesn't, the MSM will be all over it, even though they ignored or explained away the Kerry non-bounce.
I saw a post last night that said that tens of thousands of voters (75 percent of whom are Democrats) are dual-registered in New York and Florida.
the figure is more like 57.7 percent.
The RNC convention will break records for viewers, and I predict Bush will get a huge bounce!
You must be joking. The only way that could possibly happen would be if President Bush announced that Cheney was stepping down and that the new surprise VP candidate would be named in a prime-time speech. Aside from that, the Republican convention will have about the same viewership as the Democratic.
I don't think so. Bush draws huge crowds, as does the VP.
Kerry had to take Edwards off the campaign trail by himself because no one was showing up. The same is true for Kerry, at some rally's the turnout is very small.
You can tell because the media shots are close up and tight and most people are carrying pro union signs.
Also freepers are attending the rally's an posting pics.
The question now will be whether Bush can get enough of a bounce from his convention or is the public tuning out politics in greater numbers.
I don't think the public is tuning out the campaigns. The oppisite is true, the closer we get to November the more people tune in. History!
Yes, the dems downplayed the bounce for Kerry before the conv., the RNC is setting low expectations so if it is real high they can say we thought 5% and look it is 15%.
Bush is going to win BIG.
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