Free Republic

Polling and data guru Nate Silver updated his prediction to “toss up” two days after he said former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November. Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, released his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday. He predicted Harris would win the popular vote, but called her “a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College.” Silver wrote on Substack that this posed a risk of a “repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.”...

Failed Prognostications of Climate Alarm Anthony Watts / 11 hours ago August 7, 2018 By Rob Bradley writing at IER “If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit [between now and] the year 2025 to 2050…. The rise in global temperature is predicted to … caus[e] sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century.”— Philip Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun.” New York Times, June 24, 1988. It has been 30 years since the alarm bell was...

Tuesday, February 05 New Jersey Democratic Primary Rasmussen Clinton 49, Obama 43, Clinton +6

There has been a good deal of speculation about the state of the US economy lately. Which way are interest rates headed, now that Bernake has replaced Greenspan at the Fed? Will the housing bubble burst or just leak slowly? What will be the influence of the tensions in Iran? While all of these questions are challenging, and may present the opportunity for a quick strike, they are still among the easiest of all economic questions. Why? Because they are short term questions. If we just wait six months or a year, the answers will have already happened. Instead of...

Hey, Can someone post all the New Year Prediction threads from last year. I think I have some bragging rights to claim.