Posted on 08/02/2024 10:52:55 AM PDT by thegagline
Polling and data guru Nate Silver updated his prediction to “toss up” two days after he said former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November.
Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, released his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday.
He predicted Harris would win the popular vote, but called her “a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College.”
Silver wrote on Substack that this posed a risk of a “repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.” He said Harris is in a better position than President Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger.
*** “At FiveThirtyEight, we actually had a formal definition of a ‘toss-up’, which is an election where each candidate had at least a 40 percent chance of winning. We’re now quite comfortably into that territory.”
Silver said according to his model, Harris has a 54% chance of winning in Michigan, 50% chance of winning Wisconsin, and 47% chance of winning Pennsylvania, all states that would lock down the 270 electoral votes necessary to win.
“As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock. It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a “flip”: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,” Silver wrote. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Wonder how much he’s being paid to say that.
No surprise. He sold out to ABC and knows who pays the bills.
We have work to do.
The media, Hollywood, EU and Putin are solid behind Harris.
See here:
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump at 51.7% (down 6.4% from last week )
Kamala at 45.6% (up 6.1% from last week )
All she has to do is to go to the suburbs in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia to win their vote.
That's the election right there.
Gotta give the steal plausible deniability.
If I'm Trump, I'll campaign heavily in New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia. A lot of Hispanics in those places. They're turned off by socialism of the Biden/Harris administration.
Harris is focusing on MI, PA and WI. Trump needs to go on the offensive and look elsewhere and find other possible paths to the White House.
Todays news of the HORRIFIC jobs report, possibility of having a recession, and Biden telling Israel to go F off Trump should be doing a press conference right now
The ads in PA are just pounding her. Her little pump is over.
“
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump at 51.7% (down 6.4% from last week )
Kamala at 45.6% (up 6.1% from last week )”
Short of the election, that’s what matters. People lie to polls, or fix polls for a desired result. People don’t make losing bets with their own money.
That’s a 12.5% swing in a week. I told you the bitch is going to be installed.
All Trump has to do is pound her on the issues and we win. Don’t get distracted by nonsense.
“Harris is focusing on MI, PA and WI.”
And it’s probable Trump loses all 3.
“Trump needs to go on the offensive and look elsewhere and find other possible paths to the White House.”
True, but New Mexico and Colorado are very long shots. Virginia slightly less so.
Even with losing the entire Rust Belt, assuming Trump sweeps **EVERY** southern swing state: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina (which is quite far from certain), then all he actually needs is to tie is that ONE electoral vote in Nebraska that he didn’t get last time.
Then win by flipping something small and not totally ludicrous, like New Hampshire.
If Trump loses the Rust Belt and fails to *sweep* the other swing states, then it doesn’t matter what places like Nebraska and New Hampshire do, unless a miracle upset does occur somewhere more substantial like Virginia.
Being realistic, which some trembling snowflakes on here don’t appreciate, Trump needs to take at least ONE Rust Belt state among PA, MI, WI.
PA is the biggest, and the most likely — until someone from PA just happens to become the Democrat VP nominee. Even then, there’s the misguided wishful thinking that a certain “someone from PA” means Trump automatically gets Michigan, so it’s really just about a wash and nothing to worry about.
The usual doom thread. The media tells us we will lose. Let’s all kill ourselves.
If it’s as bad as you people say and no real issues matter; not prices, not crime, not illegals, not standard of living.... If all that matters is the bad guys want her and will use the cover of some electoral sham to do it, then there isn’t a damn thing any of us could have done to prevent it. So live your life and quit believing this system works, but we magically lose every time.
Harris is NEVER going to trend up.
She started out at her highwater mark.
When and if she ever has a REAL campaign news conference or when she debates Trump if she ever does, then she will start to nosedive.
She will be WORSE unscripted than Biden.
At least people discounted his incoherent answers to feeble condition.
Kamala will give incoherent responses in unscripted situation and have no excuse to rely upon.
She already referred to herself as president and she was reading from a script.
I’ll bet dollars to Dunkin’ Donuts that the quadruple boosted suburban soccer mom obsessed Flubros are reaching for the smelling salts and running for their fainting couches!
I’m sure the pressure was brutal.
Yep, this poll says something we don’t like so it’s bogus.
A couple days ago when we liked what he said, then the poll was legit and was the gospel truth.
Stop with the negativity. They lose on ALL the issues. The Economy is now in Stagflation. She willlose.
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