Posted on 06/17/2025 5:31:04 AM PDT by Red Badger
A last-minute observation from the Webb telescope has sharpened predictions for asteroid 2024 YR4, slightly increasing its odds of hitting the Moon but confirming no threat to Earth. (Artist’s concept.) Credit: SciTechDaily.com
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NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope recently made a final observation of asteroid 2024 YR4 before it drifted out of range.
This rare data update refined the asteroid’s projected path and revealed a small uptick in its chance of striking the Moon, though Earth remains in the clear.
Webb Telescope Captures Final Glimpse
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may be out of sight now, but before it slipped too far from Earth to track, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope captured one final observation. This last glimpse, taken as the asteroid continued its journey around the Sun, delivered a valuable burst of new data.
Thanks to Webb’s sharp view, scientists at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California, were able to improve their prediction of the asteroid’s future path. They now have a 20% better estimate of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032. That fine-tuning slightly raised the odds of it striking the Moon—from 3.8% to 4.3%. Even if a collision did occur, it would not affect the Moon’s orbit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 Moon Impact Probability
The range of possible locations – represented by yellow points – of 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032. The range decreases from April to June as we gained more data and improved our certainty of the asteroid’s position. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. Credit: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Earth Impact Ruled Out
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it briefly raised concerns due to a slim possibility of hitting Earth. However, with additional observations, NASA has confidently ruled out any risk of impact with our planet in 2032 or beyond.
As more data becomes available, it’s normal for these probabilities to shift. In this case, the update came from an international science team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, using Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera this past May.
Out of View Until 2028
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be seen by either ground-based or space-based telescopes. But it won’t stay hidden forever. NASA plans to make new observations when the asteroid returns to the inner solar system in 2028, offering another chance to refine its orbit even further.
PING!....................
Maybe it’ll just pass on by. Or the friction will raise erfs temp.
With my luck it’ll probably hit the Moon on the backside and I won’t get to see it live!..................
Don’t forget the Killer Hornets.
NASA is in a fanatical fight—not against aliens—but to save its budget.
Explain ongoing hysteria coming from them for the next few years.
If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us, just a really cool fireworks show, and probably lots of meteorites in the skies for a few months or years as the debris gets sucked into the Earth’s gravity well.
If it does hit the Moon, I hope we actually get to see it happen, but my luck would be it hits the backside and we would have to rely on satellite video.............
The leftists are excited that this may hit the moon’s “backside”. This peaks their interest .
re: “If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us”
Um, what about Moon Base 1? (In the planning stages now.)
Last shuttle was in July 2011. Since then........
Check out the “progress” of Artemis.
The dog has been eating their homework for many years.
Ow. :^) Thanks RB.
Knowing government bureaucrats and unions, it won’t be built in this century.............
I was thinking something similar.
Even though 4.3% isn’t a low chance in astronomical terms, it tells me that even if it doesn’t hit, it’s more like a glancing blow or a low or a nearly tangential angle of attack, which makes me wonder if it wouldn’t kick out a lot more debris than a more perpendicular hit because of how the energy gets directed.
Also, this isn’t likely possible due to the objects speed, but wouldn’t it be interesting if the moon could capture it in an orbit. IE: a satellite that has it’s own satellite.
Yup.
It’s always something!
The Earth is in blue and the moon is in yellow. If it does hit the moon Earth gets to see it hit!
At the very least, we might be able to observe and film one heck of a close encounter.🔭🔭🔭
A fascinating thought!
Not yet discussed as a possibility: The small asteroid misses the Moon, and misses the Earth (based on current measurements.)
But its three-body orbital gravitation and inertia throws it into different spiraling path that does hit one or the other some years later. Or throws it off-course completely - unlike Shoemaker-Levy which was pulled into Jupiter - and it leaves the system entirely. (Unlike the loosely held Shoemaker Levy comet, this asteroid will near-certainly not break up into smaller pieces if it passes near the Moon or Earth. Too little a gravitational tide.)
There is no atmosphere on the Moon, so a near miss up there just changes the future orbits. Won’t break it up like the Tunguska explosion.
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