Posted on 02/20/2025 5:17:35 AM PST by Red Badger
Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032, as of February 19, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. The range of possibilities has decreased from the previous image because of the additional data gathered. Credit: NASA JPL/CNEOS
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Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which once had the highest recorded impact probability for its size. Current estimates place its chance of hitting Earth at 1.5% in 2032, with a smaller risk for the Moon.
With the full moon now past, the skies have darkened, allowing astronomers to resume observations of asteroid 2024 YR4. Ground-based telescopes need minimal light pollution to detect asteroids, which are often faint and difficult to spot. During a full moon, the sky is too bright, making observations nearly impossible.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has analyzed new data reported to the Minor Planet Center. On February 18, updated calculations placed the asteroid’s impact probability for December 22, 2032, at 3.1% — the highest ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, by February 19, new overnight observations refined the estimate, lowering the impact probability to 1.5%.
Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 as of January 27, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. Credit: NASA JPL/CNEOS Refining the Asteroid’s Path
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Each additional night of observations helps scientists narrow down the asteroid’s possible trajectory and better assess any potential risk to Earth. NASA expects these probability estimates to continue changing as more data is collected in the coming days and weeks.
These recent observations have further constrained the uncertainty around the asteroid’s trajectory, and the yellow dots in the above graphics represent possible locations of the asteroid on December 22, 2032. As we continue to observe the asteroid’s motion over time, the region of possible locations will shrink even further. For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032.
Potential Impact on the Moon
Additionally, there is also a – much lower — chance this asteroid could impact the Moon. Current calculations estimate this impact probability to be 0.8%.
NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, set to launch no earlier than September 2027, will accelerate NASA’s ability to discover unknown asteroids by hunting for them in the infrared. While dark in visible light, asteroids and comets glow in the infrared as they’re heated by sunlight. In addition, NEO Surveyor will add an in-space vantage point that complements ground-based observatories.
Well, I need to know. I have plans that day.
Isn’t this firmly in the category of “You can’t do anything about it”? So what...who cares? Why worry?
It’s going to pass behind, just like the Blackhawk a couple weeks ago.
So, why worry about global warming at all?
Surely there is some way to scam people because of the asteroid fear!
In approximately 4 billion years, give or take a few millennia, the Sun will enter its Red Giant Phase and everything within the orbit of Mars will be consumed. Ever atom in every plant, animal, bacteria, fungus, fish and fowl will immediately become extinct.
And the Leftards worry about Climate Change......................
75% of Earth’s surface is water so it will likely hit ocean. Tidal wave will be huge.
The angle of impact is also vitally important.................
Musk used to talk about building deflection capabilities.
Don’t worry about it. Elon Musk and his boys already have this covered. They’re going to go retrieve it and put it next to the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum.
Greta Thunderbutt is going to blame it on “climate change”, Israel and President Trump.
Just a small nudge from an implanted rocket motor would be sufficient......................
what does D’oge! say about it?
If done early enough.
An implanted nuke or 100 would deflect it more.
This is getting silly. Are we going to get an update every day?
The real odds are 0% and 100%. And we are not going to know that for a while.
Why would they continue to post this crap? I don’t usually get into “conspiracy theories”, but this sounds like an effort to make NASA relevant.
If nothing else, this sounds like an exercise for a planetary defense missile. It’s likely to only cost four or five trillion dollars.
It should be eliminated......................
“Never let a crisis go to waste.” - Rahm Emmanuel (D)................
The probability of a strike is inversely proportional to the percentage of NASA’s budget being cut.
Imagine the excitement of Trump world pulling that off. Unbelievable. Leftist elitism would be scorned for generations. Complete flat earth idiots. Genetic mutants.
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