If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us, just a really cool fireworks show, and probably lots of meteorites in the skies for a few months or years as the debris gets sucked into the Earth’s gravity well.
If it does hit the Moon, I hope we actually get to see it happen, but my luck would be it hits the backside and we would have to rely on satellite video.............
The leftists are excited that this may hit the moon’s “backside”. This peaks their interest .
re: “If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us”
Um, what about Moon Base 1? (In the planning stages now.)
I was thinking something similar.
Even though 4.3% isn’t a low chance in astronomical terms, it tells me that even if it doesn’t hit, it’s more like a glancing blow or a low or a nearly tangential angle of attack, which makes me wonder if it wouldn’t kick out a lot more debris than a more perpendicular hit because of how the energy gets directed.
Also, this isn’t likely possible due to the objects speed, but wouldn’t it be interesting if the moon could capture it in an orbit. IE: a satellite that has it’s own satellite.
At the very least, we might be able to observe and film one heck of a close encounter.🔭🔭🔭
Not yet discussed as a possibility: The small asteroid misses the Moon, and misses the Earth (based on current measurements.)
But its three-body orbital gravitation and inertia throws it into different spiraling path that does hit one or the other some years later. Or throws it off-course completely - unlike Shoemaker-Levy which was pulled into Jupiter - and it leaves the system entirely. (Unlike the loosely held Shoemaker Levy comet, this asteroid will near-certainly not break up into smaller pieces if it passes near the Moon or Earth. Too little a gravitational tide.)
There is no atmosphere on the Moon, so a near miss up there just changes the future orbits. Won’t break it up like the Tunguska explosion.