I was thinking something similar.
Even though 4.3% isn’t a low chance in astronomical terms, it tells me that even if it doesn’t hit, it’s more like a glancing blow or a low or a nearly tangential angle of attack, which makes me wonder if it wouldn’t kick out a lot more debris than a more perpendicular hit because of how the energy gets directed.
Also, this isn’t likely possible due to the objects speed, but wouldn’t it be interesting if the moon could capture it in an orbit. IE: a satellite that has it’s own satellite.
A fascinating thought!
there’s also a window where it misses the moon but comes close enough to receive a gravitational assist, resulting in a close encounter/collision with Earth. I don’t see that in the report.