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Odds of a Tunguska-Scale Impact in 2032 Just Doubled
ScienceAlert ^ | 11 February 2025 | ByBrian Koberlein, Universe Today

Posted on 02/12/2025 6:38:57 AM PST by BenLurkin

At the end of 2024, astronomers detected an asteroid...the estimated orbit put it at a 1% chance of striking Earth.

As of this writing, it now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While you might think this resembles the plot of Don't Look Up, none of this is too unusual.

You can see this in the image above, which indicates potential trajectory points. The 2.3% odds aren't simply the chances of a die roll. What it means is that when astronomers run 1,000 orbital simulations based on the data we have, 23 of them impact Earth.

The most probable trajectory currently estimates that it will have a close approach of 240,000 km from Earth, which is within the orbit of the Moon but not dangerously close.

So while the odds have doubled, astronomers aren't too worried.

In 2028, it will pass within 8 million kilometers of Earth. This is actually when astronomers will be able to make much more precise measurements of its orbit. We will then see whether we need to start making plans. Even if astronomers find out the odds of impact are almost 100%, we still wouldn't need to panic, for a few reasons.

We still have years to deal with 2024 YR4, and its orbit is such that we would have a good chance of deflecting it. And even if the absolute worst-case scenario were to occur, 2024 YR4 isn't large enough to cause an extinction event. The absolute nightmare scenario is that it would strike Earth in a heavily populated area.

We'd have to evacuate people from the risk zone, but we would have a few years to do that. An impact would be bad, but we could minimize the risk significantly.

(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...


TOPICS: Astronomy; Science
KEYWORDS: 2024yr4; asteroid; asteroids; astronomy; catastrophism; science
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1 posted on 02/12/2025 6:38:57 AM PST by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

2032? No worries we will all be dead from Climate Change by then


2 posted on 02/12/2025 6:42:14 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: BenLurkin
An impact would be bad, but we could minimize the risk significantly.

"Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than 10 to 20 million killed, tops! Uh, depending on the breaks."

3 posted on 02/12/2025 6:44:12 AM PST by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: BenLurkin

Question...what would happen if it struck the moon? How could that impact us?


4 posted on 02/12/2025 6:44:34 AM PST by woweeitsme
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To: BenLurkin

What gave it away was the sign in the passenger lounge at the point of origin. “Unscheduled Stop: A Planet.”


5 posted on 02/12/2025 6:46:51 AM PST by Larry Lucido (Donate! Don't just post clickbait!)
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To: BenLurkin; SunkenCiv; Red Badger; Lazamataz; Kaslin; PJ-Comix

Seldom considered in writing about using a nuclear bomb on incoming comets is the effect of blasting it into smaller pieces. Each piece slightly pushed sideways in its trajectory, but each much smaller mass.

Rocky asteroids and metallic objects? Less likely to split up, but the modern wave-of-hand bit of using thrusters (since nuclear bombs are yucky on campus) seems to always “First, let us assume the object is a uniform spherical cow.”

Yes, a bomb imparts little blast impulse sideways. We need way of “pushing” a solid, irregular, long and spinning irregular mass in space.


6 posted on 02/12/2025 6:48:46 AM PST by Robert A Cook PE (Method, motive, and opportunity: No morals, shear madness and hatred by those who cheat.)
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To: woweeitsme

Could knock chunks of the moon off, which may then end up impacting earth. But the chunks would likely be much smaller than the original asteroid.


7 posted on 02/12/2025 6:48:49 AM PST by Campion (Everything is a grace, everything is the direct effect of our Father's love - Little Flower)
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To: HartleyMBaldwin

George C. Scott, Dr. Strangelove 1961, worth a watch!


8 posted on 02/12/2025 6:48:55 AM PST by urbanpovertylawcenter (the law and poverty collide in an urban setting and sparks fly)
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To: HartleyMBaldwin

George C. Scott, Dr. Strangelove 1961, worth a watch!


9 posted on 02/12/2025 6:49:31 AM PST by urbanpovertylawcenter (the law and poverty collide in an urban setting and sparks fly)
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To: MNJohnnie

Yeah,

Self important BS that is really a sales pitch and political rallying cry.

One good hickup of the sun, and we’re all gone. One good flare up by the sun, and we’re all gone. One big rock from space and we’re all gone.

Meanwhile, some activist will have you think your plastic shopping bag will end all life on the planet.


10 posted on 02/12/2025 6:49:42 AM PST by Red6
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To: woweeitsme

If this size object hit the moon? Nothing. Nothing but a bright flash.


11 posted on 02/12/2025 6:49:56 AM PST by Robert A Cook PE (Method, motive, and opportunity: No morals, shear madness and hatred by those who cheat.)
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To: urbanpovertylawcenter

Excellent movie.

Classic. One worth rewatching occasionally.


12 posted on 02/12/2025 6:50:25 AM PST by Red6
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To: woweeitsme

It’ll wipe out our cheese supply


13 posted on 02/12/2025 6:59:39 AM PST by Bob434 (NO MY BATTERIES ARE NOT IN ANOTHER ROOM LOL)
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To: BenLurkin

I’ll be wearing a mask so I’ll be fine /s


14 posted on 02/12/2025 7:01:14 AM PST by Bob434 (NO MY BATTERIES ARE NOT IN ANOTHER ROOM LOL)
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To: woweeitsme; Robert A Cook PE
If it were to strike the Moon, there'd be ejecta, some of which would over time rain into the Earth's atmosphere and make pretty bursts of "shooting stars". There's also a chance that some of these chunks would be large and sturdy enough to burn their way through to Earth's surface.

15 posted on 02/12/2025 7:03:15 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)
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To: Bob434
Just in time for the 2032 election.

The mask won't save you, but the Pfizer Tunguska vaccine to be introduced in 2030, followed, of course, by annual Tunguska booster shots, will no doubt be heavily promoted (using taxpayers dollars) perhaps will ... assuming the side effects don't kill you.

16 posted on 02/12/2025 7:07:40 AM PST by glennaro (2025: The year of America's rebirth as a Great (and Free) Republic)
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Yawn


17 posted on 02/12/2025 7:09:01 AM PST by TnTnTn
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To: woweeitsme
Question...what would happen if it struck the moon? How could that impact us?

Tektites, we'd get a LOT of lunar tektites!

18 posted on 02/12/2025 7:10:16 AM PST by null and void (I hoped it was the Bee but it’s California.)
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[snip] 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40 – 90 meters) wide and... is large enough to cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth [/snip]
2024 YR4 | science.nasa.gov
...sidebar...
[snip] Forty-nine thousand years ago, a large 30 to 50 meter diameter iron asteroid impacted the Colorado Plateau in northern Arizona. The resulting massive explosion excavated 175 million tons of rock, forming a crater nearly a mile wide and 570 feet deep. (Click here to learn about the geology of the region). While the Meteor Crater* impact event was too small to cause global environmental effects, its regional damage would have been significant... The probable sum of these effects is the destruction of vegetation over an area 800 to 1500 km2. Damage to vegetation would have extended over an additional 200 to 600km2. Animals within 3 to 4 km of the impact site would probably been killed, with maiming injuries extending out to distances of ~16 to 24 km. While these effects are severe, they are confined to the immediate region and did not cause extinctions... These types of events, however, are large enough to destroy a modern city. They occur at an average rate of about once in 6000 years. [/snip]
Barringer Crater | www.lpi.usra.edu

19 posted on 02/12/2025 7:10:30 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)
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To: MNJohnnie
2.3%

That's a rounding error in the math. Call me if it reaches 80% or 90% - I'll hold a prayer meeting and call others to get right with Jesus.
20 posted on 02/12/2025 7:16:31 AM PST by The Louiswu (You get what you vote for, good and hard.)
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