Posted on 01/29/2025 8:43:29 AM PST by BenLurkin
2024 YR4 is a newly spotted asteroid with the potential to hit Earth...
A 1.2% chance the asteroid hits Earth based on very preliminary calculations.
Which means—obviously—a 98.8% chance the rocky object misses us!
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. At that point the asteroid was 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth. The asteroid is currently moving away from our planet but its next close approach will occur in December 2028.
CNEOS reports that the asteroid is 180 feet (55 meters) across, and its speed at (potential) impact estimated at 10.76 miles per second (17.32 kilometers/second). The center reports six distinct possible impact events between 2032 and 2074, with the highest likelihood of impact being in 2032—December 22 of that year to be exact. Feel free to mark your calendars. It’s important to point out that the probability decreases with each subsequent pass the asteroid makes, with the 2032 date the only one qualifying as a Torino 3 level risk.
On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a way of measuring the danger posed by asteroids—2024 YR4 merits attention by astronomers, as the encounter is less than a decade away, but collision with Earth is hardly a sure thing. The object’s level-three rating also means that, “Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction,” CNEOS’ website states. However, “Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0,” or a “No hazard” rating. We’re certainly hoping this will be the cas
(Excerpt) Read more at gizmodo.com ...
Starting on my bunker today.
Are they sure this isn’t just the Tesla Roadster with Starman at the wheel?
Looking forward to it.
Not on my Bingo card.
In physics, specifically classical mechanics, the three-body problem is to take the initial positions and velocities (or momenta) of three point masses that orbit each other in space and calculate their subsequent trajectories using Newton's laws of motion and Newton's law of universal gravitation.And we sure have "n" bodies circulating in the solar system.Unlike the two-body problem, the three-body problem has no general closed-form solution, meaning there is no equation that always solves it. When three bodies orbit each other, the resulting dynamical system is chaotic for most initial conditions. Because there are no solvable equations for most three-body systems, the only way to predict the motions of the bodies is to estimate them using numerical methods.
The three-body problem is a special case of the n-body problem. Historically, the first specific three-body problem to receive extended study was the one involving the Earth, the Moon, and the Sun. In an extended modern sense, a three-body problem is any problem in classical mechanics or quantum mechanics that models the motion of three particles.
Ok...lets get some nukes or Ben Afleck with a drill up there...
Can we leave him up there?
Another consequence of global climate change, therefore Trump’s fault.
We have to....just in case the nukes miss....then he needs to self detonate a nuke Musk hid his space craft with the activation button purposely mis-labeled as a cappuccino maker.
One of my favorite disaster movies is now “Greenland”. When I went out and looked at that last comet we saw...that immediately came to mind!
Asteroid 2032 - Just End It Already!
Asteroid fear porn.
Huh. Just about the same size as Tunguska. Might make a good candidate for another “nudge” experiment, maybe using some other technique than an impactor.
One question: Is the chance of an impact in 2032 1.2%, with other passes being at lower odds, or is the chance of an impact between now and 2074 1.2%? Those are rather different things, if you see what I mean.
Thanks BenLurkin. People have been prepping on much worse odds than that. :^)
Well, we can hope.............
Will it hit Newscum`s house?
Were it to hit a major city in China, would democrats fork over $8-10T of money they don’t have for recovery efforts?
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