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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report announced Thursday it was shifting its rating of Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) competitive House district race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” Cook Political Report editor David Wasserman said the change in the rating comes after recent campaign finance disclosures revealed Boebert’s challenger raised more than three times what Boebert raised in the second quarter. Boebert, a conservative firebrand, faces what was already sure to be a high-stakes rematch with former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, a Democrat who lost to Boebert in 2022 by a mere 546 votes. The close race triggered an automatic...

Although Oregon has long been a blue stronghold, political analysts say the state’s gubernatorial race is no sure thing, the Baker City Herald reported Tuesday. Most recently, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed the race from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-up,” pointing to the volatile nature of potentially splitting a governor’s race between three candidates.

Bernie Sanders is telling a group of volunteers and organizers packed into one of his field offices in Marshalltown, Iowa, that he'll need every bit of support to win Monday's caucuses. The Vermont senator says that "everybody agrees this is a toss-up caucus." He predicts that if voter turnout is high they will win, but "on the other hand if there is a low voter turnout we'll probably lose." ...

President Obama and Mitt Romney are statistically tied in Michigan, according to a poll from Mitchell Research released on Thursday. Obama leads Romney 47 percent to 46 in the poll, which has a 3.5 percent margin of error. It’s the fourth poll in June to show the candidates neck and neck in the Wolverine State, which has swung reliably Democratic in recent elections and where Obama was up by double digits as recently as mid-May. “Obama will have to campaign very heavily in Michigan, something he did not want to do,” said Mitchell Research Chairman Steve Mitchell in a statement....

Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer continues to hold the slightest of leads over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 49% support and Fiorina with 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

The air war is under way. Republican congressional candidate Kristi Noem aired her first general election TV ad Tuesday while Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., aired her fourth of the campaign. Noem targets what she terms out-of-control spending in Washington, D.C., in the 30-second spot that features images of the candidate as well as South Dakota icons such as a buffalo and Mount Rushmore. “The government is here to serve the people, not the other way around,” Noem says in the ad. Spending is an issue that plays well in the state, Noem said.“No matter where I travel in our...

By Christopher Keating on May 18, 2010 8:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) The Cook Political Report - one of the most highly respected, non-partisan national analyses - is now saying that the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut is a toss-up. The change for the report comes on the day that The New York Times published a front-page story and released a video that shows that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said that he served in Vietnam when he did not. The change in the rating for the race is a major turnaround from the conventional wisdom, which placed Blumenthal...

Via Jeralyn at TalkLeft: Barack Obama and John McCain are in a statistical dead heat according to the Daily Gallup tracking poll. Why? Seems to me to be the high number of undecideds combined with those who won’t vote for either. As Karl Rove has been mentioning frequently on Fox News, during the same general pre-convention time period, Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 12-14% advantage over George W. Bush. The key appears to be the large number of undecided voters or those who do not wish to vote for either candidate. Why is this so, and how can we take advantage...

"So," I began, "in August 2004, did John McCain and Hillary Clinton have dinner in your restaurant?" "Yes," came the one-word answer. Was there any vodka drunk? The answer, again, was: "Yes". I wanted to know how much. The chef said he could not remember. I jogged his memory, and it turned out they had downed four shots - each. And then the crucial question: who won?

2006 ELECTIONS : BACK TO TOSS-UP By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate. With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House....

'06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN Mc GANN October 24, 2006 -- THE latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate. With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House...

McCaskill (D) 44%; Talent (R) 43%

A new poll released Monday shows Republican Tom Kean Jr. has pulled about even with incumbent Robert Menendez in New Jersey's U.S. Senate race. The Quinnipiac University poll showed 40 percent of respondents in the heavily Democratic state favored Kean while 38 percent backed the Democrat Menendez and 18 percent were undecided.

After months of toggling leads, the race for Missouri’s seat in the U.S. Senate between incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent and State Auditor Claire McCaskill has now leveled. Results of the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 likely voters show the candidates now tied at 42% with Republicans and Democrats divided evenly along party lines.

Incumbent Jim Talent holds a slight advantage in the Show Me State, according to the latest poll by Zogby Interactive. 49 per cent of respondents in Missouri would vote for the Republican in the election to the U.S. Senate, while 44 per cent would support Democrat Claire McCaskill.

California Governor's Race: No Place for Filing Premature ObituariesPaul WeyrichTuesday, Oct. 22, 2002 U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., has earned respect in political circles for the work that he has done as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He has been an aggressive fundraiser and recruiter of candidates. He is a "Big Tent" Republican, and that has earned him his share of critics within conservative circles. But there is widespread acknowledgement that he is a savvy politician and aggressive promoter of the Republican Party. That said, even his strongest supporters must be left wondering what prompted Davis to...

June 6, 2002 Nine for November:True Tossups Will Be Hard to Find This Year In a year when fewer than five dozen House seats are "in play," fewer than a dozen of them can really be categorized as tossups. With all 435 House seats on the ballot this year, I count a mere nine as true tossups, contests where both sides have an equal chance of victory. I'm not counting admittedly competitive races such as Rep. Bob Riley's (R) open 3rd district seat in Alabama, where the Republicans have a slight edge, or California's open 18th district, where the Democrats...