Free Republic

Food for thought. Iran Is Not Winning. It Is Unraveling. The prevailing narrative on Iran has it almost perfectly reversed. We are told that Tehran is winning a war of wills in the Gulf and that Donald Trump is gambling recklessly with the world’s most sensitive chokepoint. In reality, Iran is not consolidating strength; it is managing decline. And Trump’s play on the Strait of Hormuz has quietly forced energy markets to reprice security—tilting the balance decisively toward the Americas, and away from Europe, Asia and China. The Islamic Republic no longer resembles a confident revolutionary project. With the old...

WASHINGTON — Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hasn’t released an audio or video message since assuming power because his face was badly burned in Israeli airstrikes on Feb, 28, according to a report — as President Trump says peace talks are inhibited by a lack of clear leadership in Tehran. Khamenei, 56, “does not want to appear vulnerable or sound weak,” four Iranian officials told the New York Times, adding that one of the ayatollah’s legs has been “operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic,” while he also has had surgery on one of his hands. “His...

According to the report, air defense activity, including sounds of explosions and anti-aircraft fire, was heard in several districts of the city. Iranian media described the response as intercepting incoming threats. Iran’s state-run Mehr News Agency reported Thursday evening that Iranian air defense systems were actively engaging what it described as “hostile targets” in parts of the capital, Tehran. What We Know So Far Mehr News and other semi-official outlets (including Nour News) confirmed the activation of air defenses. Eyewitness videos circulating on social media show flashes in the night sky, plumes of smoke, and what appears to be ground-based...

Donald Trump is stepping up his push to cut off Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz by demanding the US Navy 'shoot and kill' any Iranian boat laying mines in the Persian Gulf. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday morning: 'I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.' 'There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the...

Iran’s decades-long bluff—built on terror proxies, nuclear brinkmanship, and Western appeasement—collapsed the moment it faced direct force and a changed geopolitical landscape. How does the supposedly most fearsome regime in the violent Middle East now find itself on the verge of an utter economic and military collapse? Iran’s half-century-long deadly terrorist reputation peaked with the October 7, 2023, massacre in Israel that it helped fund and coordinate. Iran’s terrorist ambitions of running the Middle East had accelerated after witnessing Joe Biden’s cognitive decline and his administration’s distancing itself from Israel. Biden’s humiliation by a series of Chinese slights and the...

It's hard to say whether or not Trump is prepared to restart kinetic action against Iran, or continue his indefinite cease-fire...indefinitely. No doubt Trump likes it that way. While I hate that every time a security studies guy or gal talks about military action, they always quote Clausewitz or Sun Tzu, I have to say that Trump is the most Clausewitzian and Sun Tzu-style military leader we have had in a long while. By that I mean that Trump understands that war is an extension of politics, and that military success relies as much on deception as good tactics. I...

Senate Republicans voted largely in unison Wednesday to defeat a Democratic-sponsored war powers resolution that would prohibit President Trump from continuing military operations against Iran. It marked the fifth time that Republican senators voted against a proposal to halt the military conflict. The Senate voted 46-51 to defeat a motion to discharge the resolution out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Libertarian-leaning Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote to advance the measure. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was the only Democrat to vote against it. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who sponsored the measure, argued on the Senate...

The Iranian regime folks are not happy campers right now. They're being squeezed by the U.S. blockade that's costing them an estimated $435 million a day. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained, that's going to cause their Kharg Island operation to be "shut in" soon. That's the money that sustains the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that would then be cut off. Meanwhile, the U.S. is even seizing its ships, like the MV Touska, that tried to run the U.S. blockade with some bad materials aboard that could have helped their missile program. So what are the regime's options? They...

The U.S. military, which has been responding to Iran’s loitering drone attacks, has finally adopted Ukraine’s air defense technology. As low-cost drones continued to damage high-value military assets, it is interpreted that the U.S. has deployed Ukraine’s combat-proven response system at key Middle Eastern bases. On the 22nd, Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that the U.S. has deployed Ukraine’s command and control platform at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, a key military asset in the Middle East, to defend against Iranian drones.… Ukrainian military officers are reported to have visited the base over recent weeks to train U.S. forces...

Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse. Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict. The economic viability of Iran’s resistance is facing an unprecedented existential threat due to the US naval blockade of the strait, which accounts for over 90 percent of Iran’s $109.7 billion in annual trade. Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per...

In declaring an extension to the ceasefire in the Iran war, President Trump signalled clearly enough that he would prefer to strike a peace deal with Tehran. J.D. Vance, the vice-president, has been kicking his heels, waiting to return to the Pakistani capital Islamabad for another go at achieving a breakthrough. The Iranians keep blowing hot and cold on whether they are ready to play their part. Trump suggested in a social media post earlier this week that he believes this is because Iran’s government is ‘seriously fractured’. His ceasefire extension is aimed at allowing the regime time to deliver...

Lebanese media on Wednesday night reported the death of Al-Akhbar newspaper journalist Amal Khalil, after she was allegedly trapped underneath rubble in the village of A-Tiri following an Israeli strike in the area. The Lebanese Minister of Information claimed that this was a “heinous crime and a blatant violation..."

"UKMTO has received a report of an incident 15NM northeast of Oman," an alert read. "The Master of a Container Ship reported that the vessel was approached by 1 IRGC gun boat, no VHF challenge that then fired upon the vessel which has caused heavy damage to the bridge. No fires or environmental impact reported. All Crew reported safe." Between the start of the war and Sunday, April 20, a total of 33 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz (SOH), and Gulf of Oman were received. .....

Fox News has reported a power struggle has broken out within Iranian leadership and a potential coup could be taking place against the new supreme leader. "Tonight there could be a coup, no-one knows who's calling the shots," Fox News' political commentator and host Jesse Watters said. Watters said that the US delegation, comprising of Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Special Envoy for Peace Jared Kushner, were supposed to leave for Islamabad, Pakistan for negotiations with Iran. Watters claimed the Iranian delegation never left Iran. He went on to say that Trump...

Female IDF reservists were forced to guard violent Nukhba terrorists at the Sde Teiman base and detention center in the days following October 7, 2023, despite repeated sexual harassment, according to a Monday KAN News report. "We would serve them food, cuff them, be with them for long hours, and during this time, they would masturbate in front of us, blow us kisses, and try to undress. Their gazes were degrading, stripping. It was unbearable,” one reservist told KAN News's Carmela Menashe. “I didn’t enlist in the IDF for this,” one of the soldiers, who is refusing to return to...

Democrat Chris Murphy is getting slammed for replying "awesome" to the news that 26 Iranian shadow fleet vessels breached the U.S. naval blockade. Murphy has been hammering the war effort. He's argued the U.S. is spending “billions” to keep its navy there “to fecklessly fail,” calling the conflict “pointless” and warning current plans are “almost certain not to work.”

Russia’s foreign minister delivered a prosecution of the American-led world order from Turkey’s annual diplomacy forum over the weekend. Sergey Lavrov called NATO an “aggressive bloc” and the rules-based international system a slogan that “never existed.” He said the war the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran was “a plan to control the oil through the Strait of Hormuz.” Hours earlier, NATO’s deputy secretary-general told the same forum that Europeans and Canadians must now take primary responsibility for their own defense. Radmila Shekerinska said alliance credibility depends on action, not words. The three-day Antalya Diplomacy Forum, with an estimated 6,400...

According to retired CIA analyst Larry Johnson: During an emergency meeting On Saturday Trump tried to “use the nuclear codes” on Iran and he was stopped by General Dan Caine. According to Johnson “there is seriously something wrong with Trump.”

President Trump told The Post he “will not be rushed” to end the Iran war on its 52nd day — and lashed out at Democrats and Republicans trying to force him to end the conflict. “How bad is it that when you are in the middle of negotiations and you have got the Iranians in a perfect position, including being militarily defeated, and you have Democrats and some Republicans asking to settle it now?” Trump said in a phone interview. “As a negotiator — and I am a great negotiator — how bad is it when you have people from...

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump Israel never talked me into the war with Iran, the results of Oct. 7th, added to my lifelong opinion that IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, did. I watch and read the FAKE NEWS Pundits and Polls in total disbelief. 90% of what they say are lies and made up stories, and the polls are rigged, much as the 2020 Presidential Election was rigged. Just like the results in Venezuela, which the media doesn’t like talking about, the results in Iran will be amazing - And if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran...