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Risk tolerance, the River, and why Democrats struggle with young men Carrie Levande asks: "SBSQ submission: as you noted in Risky Business, the Democrats’ groupthink around protecting Biden is emblematic of their Village tendencies. Lately I’ve been feeling like a lot of the country’s rejection of the Democratic Party can be traced back to their Village-ness: seeming “fake”, the groupthink they foster in cultural institutions and the media, wokeness (and the forces that created it), generally being insufferable. I’m curious your take on viewing today’s political climate through the village/river lens. Do you think the rise of trump and tech...

It hasn’t exactly been the best century for the expert class. Begin with the response to September 11 — the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, which were supported by bipartisan majorities. Then the financial crisis and the bailouts. Then Brexit and the election of Trump. Then the pandemic: what was supposed to be a triumph of management for a technocratic elite instead wound up as a worst-of-all-worlds scenario with prolonged restrictions and school closures and 7 million dead — from a virus possibly caused by sloppy scientific research practices. Then inflation, which was supposed to be a thing of the past....

It’s obviously a really close race. But for some pollsters, it’s a little too close. Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states. And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and 48 percent of the vote: Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say “well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!”. And since...

Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy! I cannot wait for the next election in 3 years, it is going to be the most hilarious time ever. Yep. The one and only, Her Majesty Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from the Bronx. More from New York Daily News: 'I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first,' Silver tweeted, referring to the fact that his colleague Galen Druke also placed Ocasio-Cortez on top of his own early 2028 list. 'That was going to be my … first pick,' he added. Silver and Druke agreed Ocasio-Cortez has the charisma and popularity...

The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. The Left doesn’t get it. They’d rather mainline whatever sludge CNN or MSNBC spews on the airwaves, but there’s no escaping this anymore: Donald J. Trump won the 2024 election. He won the Electoral College. He won the popular vote. He beat the lawfare and the media smear campaigns. He’s unstoppable, invincible, and it’s about time Democrats realize they cannot beat him. So, when you have these clown threads on Twitter claiming how Trump didn’t win the popular vote—look no further than Nate Silver, of all people, to annihilate...

Pollster Nate Silver said President Biden should resign, in a post on the social platform X on Wednesday. “Is there any particular reason to assume Biden is competent to be president right now? It’s a very difficult job,” Silver said in his post. “It’s a dangerous world. Extremely high-stakes decisions in Ukraine. He should resign and let Harris serve out the last 2 months.” Silver’s post also featured a screenshot of a report from The Washington Post and its link. The report centered around Biden’s current relationship with reporters as he prepares to exit the White House. Biden, according to...

Hey Nate, we weren't coordinating with the Trump campaign like I think an investigation could find that Selzer may have been. I control the numbers completely myself, and they are 100% a product of my own work. You should probably retract that. BTW, I refuse to pay to read this crap, but I'm pretty sure you're going to talk about the accuracy of polls on 11/4 and ignore the fact that they were manufacturing a fake Harris lead all fall (like your model also helped do by inserting additional leftward bias as compared to RCP). We, alone, showed Trump winning...

Elections forecaster Allan Lichtman took a swipe at fellow prognosticator Nate Silver on Wednesday while admitting he was wrong in predicting Vice President Harris would win the presidency. “Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,” Lichtman wrote on the social platform X, adding that he “will assess the election and the keys,” in an upcoming online live show. His comments come after former President Trump was declared the winner early Wednesday. A historian and American University professor, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential...

Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before the polls close across the U.S. And he says it's 'literally closer than a coin flip,' as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to a close Tuesday. After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the majority of match ups. The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris's 50.015 percent,' Silver said on Tuesday morning. According to his model, Harris won the Electoral...

Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling data indicate the race could still go either way. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver, whose model currently rates the Republican nominee with a 53.1% chance of becoming the 47th president, wrote in a New York Times op-ed published Tuesday. “Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a...

“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct. Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day. Newsweek reported on Silver’s history of predicting elections: 2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election. 2012: He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states. 2016: Although Donald Trump won in an upset, Silver’s model...

As American voters head into Election Day 2024, a chorus of polling experts agreed that the presidential race between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck with no clear favorite. Shortly after midnight on Tuesday, statistician Nate Silver unveiled his Silver Bulletin’s final forecast model, showing each major party candidate essentially has a 50% shot of becoming the nation’s 47th president. “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight,” Silver wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Harris won in 40,012.” Harrris “did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%),” Silver and co-author Eli McKown-Dawson explained in their final Silver...

Liberal data analyst Nate Silver believes Trump will win the election. His forecast puts Trump somewhere in the mid-50s and Harris in the mid-40s.During a recent appearance on the Risky Business podcast, he accused pollsters of cheating and putting their fingers on the scale in order to make the race appear closer than it actually is.He says that the race has gradually drifted to Trump over a long period of time and notes that Harris has been regularly losing ground.The Economic Times reports:Are pollsters playing favorites? Nate Silver says they’re ‘misleading the masses’ in 2024 Presidential racePolling expert Nate Silver...

Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update 🔴 Trump: 54.4% 🔵 Harris: 45.3%

Nate Silver's current model of the 2024 Presidential Election has Trump at 66% to win. Nate is pretty good I think, he had the highest odds of anyone in 2016 for Trump.

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close. The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump to within a point or two of each other each time. “I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster...

If there's a second Trump term, we won't lack for explanations.This election remains extremely close, but Donald Trump has been gaining ground. One of my pet peeves is with the idea that this is Kamala Harris’s election to lose. I could articulate some critiques of her campaign, but if you study the factors that have historically determined elections, you'll see that she’s battling difficult circumstances. So, today’s newsletter simply aims to provide a laundry list of factors that favor Trump, with many links to evidence in previous Silver Bulletin posts and elsewhere. These are in no particular order. Harris is...

The polling average in 21 states has shifted toward Donald Trump in the past month, according to modeling by analyst Nate Silver. According to Silver's model, last updated on Sunday, Kamala Harris still leads nationally and in three key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the candidates are tied in Pennsylvania, and Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. But compared to the same model's aggregate polling from one month ago, almost every state tracked has shifted slightly toward Trump, including nationally and in all seven battleground states. The biggest swing in a battleground state, was in Michigan,...

Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the election results are official and act like we’re trailing due to the institutional goliaths we’re facing this election cycle—but one thing cannot be denied: we’re in good shape to win the election. It’s not over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024. There’s no pandemic. And Kamala Harris is irritating everyone. Even the most ardent Trump-hater cannot deny that the former president is polling better than ever. While it’s a tight race, Trump has reclaimed the advantage in Nate Silver’s Electoral College projection: 🚨BREAKING: Nate Silver just...

Former President Donald Trump received a boost from polling guru Nate Silver, whose presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, now favors the Republican to win the election. The latest projections from the Silver Bulletin model show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris leading significantly in the popular vote probability at 75 percent. It is Trump's first lead in the model since September 19. The slight edge in the Electoral College probability means that in more simulations, Trump...