Posted on 11/01/2024 6:42:04 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.
The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump to within a point or two of each other each time.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” He fumed.
“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver vented.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I believe this 100%. Polling companies are spooked and don’t want to look bad. They probably are getting results that show more variation but are adjusting them, not for accuracy but to avoid embarrassment. They underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 and overestimated Republicans in 2022.
They do this every election year............................
Leave it to an ex bookie to know what cheating looks like LMAO.
Early Voting Results so far:
GOP up Big
Dem’s Down
Women up
Blacks down a LOT!
Will scaremongering Abortion take the Presidency?
They’ll cheat their way to the oval office. Just like they did with obama. Bring on the 110% precinct voters for Kamala and Timmy.
Silver speaks the truth.
I don’t trust the pollsters as far as I can throw them.
They are enemy actors.
“I hope I have a stomach left by next Tuesday. Pass the Pepto.”
To me, this feels too much like 2012. No energy for Obama, a lousy first term that included an unpopular Obamacare. Romney was drawing sizable crowds to his rallies, and seemed to have the edge. Until he didn’t.
That’s what scares me.
I have two generous pours of 18 year old Glenfiddich I’ve been saving for this occasion. I fully expect to be enjoying it around 10pm or so Tuesday.
L
These are the same pollsters he believed for many years, that did the same thing to his face all those years.
He finally understands you can’t trust them.
We have early voting numbers in 2024 along with the data we need to analyze them.
Learn how to do it and then you can stop being scared and know what is happening.
It is like hearing a noise outside the house—but once you go outside and look you see what is there.
Here are the resources you need to do the work:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
“Leave it to an ex bookie to know what cheating looks like LMAO.”
I’ve never known a bookie, but i think I’d still trust a bookie way more than most pollsters.
All part of the Election Industrial Complex.
There’s big money out there. Creating Drama rakes in the bucks.
Right there with you brother...but reading things such as this makes it easier
i thought this as well. the Left needs to drive foot traffic this election particularly. close polls imply urgency. and we know they underpoll Trumpers
Amen
I know I sound like a broken record but great work!
Again0- why does everyone automatically think lots of women voting means doom for President Trump??
Not all women are in favor of abortion with no limits. Women are the ones that usually go grocery shopping and see the prices. Women are being raped and harassed by illegals. Women don’t want men playing in their sports.
All the women in my family are voting for Donald Trump- immediate and extended family.
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