Free Republic

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Wednesday stressed that Republicans could hold on to their control of the House if there’s strong voter turnout on Election Day. NewsNation’s Katie Pavlich asked Scalise if he was preparing for a Democrat-led House that would look to investigate President Trump and his family or impeach Trump for a third time between his two terms. “Katie, we know this, and that is number one, there are a lot of close races right now, and if good people stay home, socialists can absolutely win some of these seats,” Scalise said during an appearance on...

Nate Silver's midterm elections forecast shifted slightly toward Republicans after he removed a series of fake polls that he said had been roughly 1 point more favorable to Democrats than the broader consensus. The famed polling analyst said the biggest change came in Michigan, where Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed's lead fell from 3.6 points to 3. Silver noted that the movement also reflected the addition of a Marist poll to the model that showed El-Sayed 2 points ahead of Republican former Representative Mike Rogers. "Overall, our forecast is little changed, though that's partly because some strong generic ballot...

SNIP But every now and then, a FiveThirtyEight article would “go viral” on News Feed. When this happened, it seemed literally almost completely random. It wasn’t even particularly well-correlated with the headline. And it was inversely correlated with the depth and quality of the article. But here’s the thing: that “viral” traffic was almost worthless. A lot of it quite literally consisted of people who visited the site for 5 to 30 seconds, read a paragraph or two, and never returned. Twitter, then also near the peak of its influence, was a comparatively better platform for us, often producing more...

Tuesday’s results are a reminder that nothing is forever in politics. Pronouncements that coalitions have changed and one party has captured the hearts of a demographic group are always susceptible to events. Groups like young voters, or Latino voters, did not become forever Republicans after the 2024 elections. In short: Parties have to deliver or voters will look to the alternative.

Today, I recorded a Substack Live with Mike Pesca of The Gist. Mike’s a great interviewer, and in contrast to the previous Lives I’ve posted here, this was more of him interviewing me than the other way around. Still, I think you’ll enjoy the conversation; the full video is above. We touched on a bit of poker at the beginning, and New York mayoral stuff at the end. However, most of the conversation centered on the differences in mental attitudes between liberals and conservatives and how this may be affecting political outcomes. Mike had reached out after I published my...

According to political analyst Nate Silver, "the problem Democrats are having attracting male voters is that they are too mentally healthy to vote for Democrats. The Cooperative Election Study survey showed that 40% of Generation Z males consider their mental health to be "very good" or "excellent." In contrast, only 20% of Generation Z females say theirs is "very good" or "excellent." The same survey found that 51% of conservatives say their mental health is excellent. Only 20% of liberals say the same. When asked whether they have "poor mental health" 45% of liberals said yes. Only 19% of conservatives...

One of the biggest stories in Washington over the next four years is whether Democrats can wrest back support among young men before the 2028 election. But to do that, the party must first understand why young male voters have flocked so heavily to the opposition party. American statistician Nate Silver dove into that question on Tuesday, finding that the mental health gap between men and women could be the crux of the divide. Citing a Cooperative Election Study, Silver reported that around 40% of Gen Z males consider their mental health "very good" or "excellent." By comparison, only 20%...

In just the last six months, a socialist torched the governor’s mansion in Pennsylvania. A trust-fund psycho stalked a healthcare CEO and then shot him in the back. An illegal alien from Egypt named Mohammed threw Molotov cocktails at a group of Jewish demonstrators. Mobs of visibly unhealthy Antifa activists attacked a Christian concert in Seattle, injuring several people and sending one police officer to the hospital. (And then the attackers effectively received an endorsement from the mayor of Seattle.) A man from Massachusetts was arrested at the Capitol after admitting that he planned to set fire to the conservative...

Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy! I cannot wait for the next election in 3 years, it is going to be the most hilarious time ever. Yep. The one and only, Her Majesty Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from the Bronx. More from New York Daily News: 'I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first,' Silver tweeted, referring to the fact that his colleague Galen Druke also placed Ocasio-Cortez on top of his own early 2028 list. 'That was going to be my … first pick,' he added. Silver and Druke agreed Ocasio-Cortez has the charisma and popularity...

Hey Nate, we weren't coordinating with the Trump campaign like I think an investigation could find that Selzer may have been. I control the numbers completely myself, and they are 100% a product of my own work. You should probably retract that. BTW, I refuse to pay to read this crap, but I'm pretty sure you're going to talk about the accuracy of polls on 11/4 and ignore the fact that they were manufacturing a fake Harris lead all fall (like your model also helped do by inserting additional leftward bias as compared to RCP). We, alone, showed Trump winning...

Elections forecaster Allan Lichtman took a swipe at fellow prognosticator Nate Silver on Wednesday while admitting he was wrong in predicting Vice President Harris would win the presidency. “Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,” Lichtman wrote on the social platform X, adding that he “will assess the election and the keys,” in an upcoming online live show. His comments come after former President Trump was declared the winner early Wednesday. A historian and American University professor, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential...

Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before the polls close across the U.S. And he says it's 'literally closer than a coin flip,' as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to a close Tuesday. After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the majority of match ups. The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris's 50.015 percent,' Silver said on Tuesday morning. According to his model, Harris won the Electoral...

Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling data indicate the race could still go either way. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver, whose model currently rates the Republican nominee with a 53.1% chance of becoming the 47th president, wrote in a New York Times op-ed published Tuesday. “Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a...

“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct. Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day. Newsweek reported on Silver’s history of predicting elections: 2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election. 2012: He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states. 2016: Although Donald Trump won in an upset, Silver’s model...

Nate Silver’s latest blog post notes that conservatives are up 31 points among those with self-described excellent mental health, and down 26 among those with poor mental health. Democrats have turned themselves into the party of the neurotic, the unstable, and the miserable. If you’re happy and well-adjusted, vote Republican.

Risk tolerance, the River, and why Democrats struggle with young men Carrie Levande asks: "SBSQ submission: as you noted in Risky Business, the Democrats’ groupthink around protecting Biden is emblematic of their Village tendencies. Lately I’ve been feeling like a lot of the country’s rejection of the Democratic Party can be traced back to their Village-ness: seeming “fake”, the groupthink they foster in cultural institutions and the media, wokeness (and the forces that created it), generally being insufferable. I’m curious your take on viewing today’s political climate through the village/river lens. Do you think the rise of trump and tech...

It hasn’t exactly been the best century for the expert class. Begin with the response to September 11 — the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, which were supported by bipartisan majorities. Then the financial crisis and the bailouts. Then Brexit and the election of Trump. Then the pandemic: what was supposed to be a triumph of management for a technocratic elite instead wound up as a worst-of-all-worlds scenario with prolonged restrictions and school closures and 7 million dead — from a virus possibly caused by sloppy scientific research practices. Then inflation, which was supposed to be a thing of the past....

The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. The Left doesn’t get it. They’d rather mainline whatever sludge CNN or MSNBC spews on the airwaves, but there’s no escaping this anymore: Donald J. Trump won the 2024 election. He won the Electoral College. He won the popular vote. He beat the lawfare and the media smear campaigns. He’s unstoppable, invincible, and it’s about time Democrats realize they cannot beat him. So, when you have these clown threads on Twitter claiming how Trump didn’t win the popular vote—look no further than Nate Silver, of all people, to annihilate...

Pollster Nate Silver said President Biden should resign, in a post on the social platform X on Wednesday. “Is there any particular reason to assume Biden is competent to be president right now? It’s a very difficult job,” Silver said in his post. “It’s a dangerous world. Extremely high-stakes decisions in Ukraine. He should resign and let Harris serve out the last 2 months.” Silver’s post also featured a screenshot of a report from The Washington Post and its link. The report centered around Biden’s current relationship with reporters as he prepares to exit the White House. Biden, according to...

All the top left wing “analysts” including Michael Moore, Bill Maher, Nate Silver, James Carville etc predicting a nice win for Kamala.