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So much for the establishment media’s overhype of Democrat presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris: a scientific model published on Tuesday demonstrates that GOP nominee for president former President Donald Trump is heavily favored to win the election. Statistician Nate Silver’s model, which pulls together polls and other data to forecast the probabilities of which candidate will win in November, opens the new race between Trump and Harris with an aggressive prediction of a likely Trump victory. Trump is forecast to have a 61.3-percent chance of winning, while Harris only has a 38.1-percent chance of winning. That means Trump has...

Pollster Nate Silver, the founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, called for President Biden to withdraw from the 2024 White House race after making “incoherent comments” in his first postdebate interview Friday.

There’s a reason why FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wanted Joe Biden to consider quitting the 2024 race. The president’s polls were abysmal, and this wasn’t 2020, though some people in Biden’s orbit think they will win anyway because Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee. On crucial issues, Biden is underwater by double-digits, with most of his 2020 supporters admitting they think he’s too old to be effective. That’s on top of the 86 percent from a Washington Post/ABC News poll who think he’s too old to run again. These aren’t outliers; it’s a consensus. It also didn’t help that Biden looked...

Nate Silver, the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, released his election model on Wednesday, showing former President Donald Trump with a two in three chance to win the White House. Silver, who exited FiveThirtyEight in 2023, released the model entitled, “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up” on his Substack at natesilver.net. According to a screenshot of what appears to be a paywalled portion of the forecast that has gone viral on X, Silver gives Trump a robust 65.7 percent chance to win the White House in November.

Nate Silver's current model of the 2024 Presidential Election has Trump at 66% to win. Nate is pretty good I think, he had the highest odds of anyone in 2016 for Trump.

Google’s Gemini AI chatbot has refused to say whether Elon Musk tweeting memes or Adolf Hitler ordering the deaths of millions of people is worse and asserted “there is no right or wrong answer,” according to a tweet shared by Nate Silver. Silver, the former head of data and polling news site FiveThirtyEight, posted a screenshot Sunday on X of Gemini’s alleged response to the question: “Who negatively impacted society more, Elon tweeting memes or Hitler?”. “It is not possible to say who definitively impacted society more, Elon tweeting memes or Hitler,” the answer from the search giant’s AI software...

Famed pollster Nate Silver said President Biden is headed for defeat this November due to his age and declining job performance — and the Democrats have “no plan to fix the problems.” Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight statistics website, said that, while the incumbent president “can still win,” it will only be the result of polls being wrong or “voters [who] look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it.” “Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of...

Political commentator and elections analyst Nate Silver is sounding the alarm about President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, writing in a Substack post that Biden is “losing” and appears to have no clear plan to right the ship. While Silver believes that Biden was “a reasonably clear favorite” a year ago, he now believes that he’s “probably the underdog” due to his poor approval rating, dearth of “contingencies that could improves his situation,” as well as public perception of his age and abilities. The FiveThirtyEight founder went on to argued that if Biden won’t run a “normal” campaign during...

Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class" that President Biden’s distinction as the oldest-serving president in history at age 80 is a source of "valid concern" for voters. "If the expert class doesn’t understand that Biden’s age is both a real concern for voters and a valid concern, they’d better be prepared for getting a second Trump term instead," Silver wrote in an analysis piece on Sunday. "This election is probably going to be close, and [former President] Trump might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away from winning," he added. Pollster Nate Silver warned Democrats and the "expert class"...

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver is exiting ABC News as The Walt Disney Company ramps up layoffs, Variety has confirmed. ABC News will hold onto the FiveThirtyEight brand with plans to streamline the statistics-driven news and analysis site. The network plans to create a more efficient structure for FiveThirtyEight leading into the 2024 presidential election and beyond. Silver sent a message to his team in a company Slack channel warning that the Disney layoffs would impact FiveThirtyEight, and that Silver is not planning to return after his contract ends. Silver said in a tweet, “Disney layoffs have substantially impacted FiveThirtyEight. I...

As Democrats’ prospects for the midterms have improved — they’re now up to a 71 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 29 percent chance of retaining the House, according to the 2022 FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast1 — I’ve observed a corresponding increase in concern among liberals that the polls might overestimate Democrats’ position again, as they did in 2016 and 2020. Even among commenters who are analyzing the race from an arm’s-length distance, there sometimes seems to be a presumption that the polls will be biased toward Democrats.

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Democrats currently have the lead in the race for the Senate. This is in part because in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November. But as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, Republicans still have plenty of potential opportunities for pick-ups. The party’s best chance is currently in Georgia.

As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.

Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November. Key findings: Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process. So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats. After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting...

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that he was not “buying” former Gov. Sarah Palin’s political comeback bid for her state’s sole seat on the U.S. House of Representatives. Anchor Jon Karl said, “Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is attempting a political comeback nearly 14 years after Sen. John McCain made her the Republican Party’s first female candidate for vice president. She’s running for Alaska’s lone House seat following the death of longtime Congressman Don Young. Donald Trump has already endorsed her but does she have a shot at winning? Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.” All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds. Sanders is also currently...

FiveThirtyEight election forecaster Nate Silver called on Fox News and the Associated Press to retract their early projections that Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden would win the state of Arizona, saying that the race is getting very tight. The remark from Silver comes after more votes were counted in Maricopa County which caused Biden’s lead over Trump to shrink.

We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning,...

Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday. Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania. What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania." "Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7-...

Election analyst Nate Silver runs a website called FiveThirtyEight.His website now gives Joe Biden a 77 in 100 chance of winning (we call that a 77% chance, but whatever). For the record, on Election Day 2016, at 10:41 a.m., Silver posted a story on FiveThirtyEight.“Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton,” said his headline. Silver said his “forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.” He hedged his bet...