Posted on 10/23/2024 11:17:20 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct.
Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day.
Newsweek reported on Silver’s history of predicting elections:
2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election. 2012: He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states. 2016: Although Donald Trump won in an upset, Silver’s model gave Trump the highest chance of winning (about 30%) compared to most other forecasters, who largely dismissed Trump’s chances. 2020: Silver’s model favored Joe Biden, which aligned with the final outcome, though it underestimated Trump’s performance in certain states like Florida. In a New York Times op-ed, Silver guessed Trump will win due to, in part, what pollsters call nonresponse bias. A nonresponse bias is a pollster’s inability to reach enough supporters of Trump.
Silver also suggested Trump will win because he believes, without evidence, that many in the electorate are misogynists. Fifty-four percent of the nation say they are ready for a woman president, while only 30 percent said they are not, according to a recent YouGov poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Virginia!!!
Why isn’t it misandry when women vote overwhelmingly against a man?
Why isn’t it racism AND misandry when a black woman votes against a white man?
Natie Natie Natie you have been jerking your followers around for months so the Truth is a hard for you now
Trust in the Lord and you will be blessed.
Nate the snake stfu
He’s trying to balance his future value as a credible predictor vs. invites to the cool people’s parties.
Early voting started in my woke Midwest college town yesterday and we had to stand in line for 45 minutes to vote in the middle of the day.
I suspect there were more than a few Democrat crossovers anxious to vote against four more years of “fundamental change.”
“Why isn’t it misandry when women vote overwhelmingly against a man?
Well, it is when the man is a Democrat.
Like it is only racism when the black person is a Democrat.
Or sexism when the woman is a Democrat.
In sum, all their name-calling is just B.S. to get you to vote Democrat.
My gut hasn’t had it easy since 1988.
This election feels like 1988 to me
A lol, Quinnipiac Poll has Harris up 3 Pts in MI. They are the most ridiculous pollsters. They have WI tied and the GOP Sen Candidate down by 1. That means that Trump and Hovdee have about a 2.7lead in Michigan. Real Clear Politics National Average is down to .6!!
No, the GOP limit is probably 325.
Not at all. Dukakis wasn’t close to Bush. Ever. The country just has fallen that much in a few decades.
Ah, no more Bush 41 landslides huh?
Wishful thinking on my part lol
Nope. We are 2 Countries on 1 landmass. I think we may be able to win VA, and NM is a sleeper if President Trump cleans up with Latinos.
I keep praying
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