Posted on 10/21/2024 4:05:05 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
The polling average in 21 states has shifted toward Donald Trump in the past month, according to modeling by analyst Nate Silver.
According to Silver's model, last updated on Sunday, Kamala Harris still leads nationally and in three key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the candidates are tied in Pennsylvania, and Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
But compared to the same model's aggregate polling from one month ago, almost every state tracked has shifted slightly toward Trump, including nationally and in all seven battleground states.
The biggest swing in a battleground state, was in Michigan, where Trump narrowed Harris's lead to an average of 0.5 points, a swing of 1.9 points toward Trump in the last month.
In a post on X, Silver wrote that the data suggests that momentum is moving toward Trump nationally.
"Harris's lead in national polls is down to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on 10/2. The race remains a toss-up, but we're at a point now where we can be pretty confident this is real movement and not statistical noise," he said.
Despite the momentum, if November's election exactly matches Silver's latest forecast, the White House would be won by whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes. The candidates are currently tied in the Keystone State.
J. Wesley Leckrone, professor of political science at Widener University, previously told Newsweek that the race in Pennsylvania was so close that it will ultimately come down to turn out among certain demographics.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
The headline says, “shifted to”, while the story says, “shifted toward”. There’s a difference.
My forecast is that the RAT/RINOs are going to openly cheat harder than they have ever cheated before.
“Despite the momentum, if November’s election exactly matches Silver’s latest forecast, the White House would be won by whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes. The candidates are currently tied in the Keystone State.”
This is not true. Trump can lose Pennsylvania and still win by winning Wisconsin or Michigan.
But it’s more likely he’ll win Pennsylvania.
I think Trump will win. But the party machine is corrupt in Philly so anything can happen.
Fortunately, Trump can return to the White House without having to win PA
Nate Silver, beloved by all Socialist Democrats, lays it out right here:
24 reasons that Trump could win
https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win
14. Harris is seeking to become the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she under-performed her polls.
Personally? If The First Woman President isn’t Sara Palin, then many of us WOULD settle for Hillary over Harris.
Ugh! What a world we’re living in!
How accurate was he in ‘16 and ‘20? Did he underestimate DJT’s results by 2 or more points in both as did most other pollsters?
Is that supposed to be good news?
The data says he’s trailing with 2 weeks to go.
Trust nothing the Synagoge of Satan Satan says.
Although Harris likes to pander by changing her accent, she hasn’t done like Hillary and played the woman or race card.
Her surrogates may, but she hasn’t.
If/when she goes there, it’ll be her last card to play.
I’m talking about saying the words.
I do not believe the polls at all. However, the October Surprise has not revealed it ugly head.....yet. I cringe at the thought.
I’m afraid you’re right.
Don’t be afraid, PRAY!
Met 3 middle aged Black women at work that went off on the Democrats.
2 were major p.o.ed over illegal immigration and the other was very mad about the Rats dropping morality.
Question is.... Are Republicans working hard enough to stop the cheat???
“the White House would be won by whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes. The candidates are currently tied in the Keystone State.”
Keep both eyes on shenanigans in Filthydelphia on election night. I hope big Republican counties refuse to report results until that nest of thieves has reported.
Answer:
No.
Sounds great, but no overconfidence please.
It is clearly “toward”, not “to”. In many of the states, her lead has diminished, but she still leads.
He does probabilities, not polls.
+++++++
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