Posted on 10/17/2024 3:28:57 PM PDT by DallasBiff
Former President Donald Trump received a boost from polling guru Nate Silver, whose presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, now favors the Republican to win the election.
The latest projections from the Silver Bulletin model show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris leading significantly in the popular vote probability at 75 percent. It is Trump's first lead in the model since September 19.
The slight edge in the Electoral College probability means that in more simulations, Trump is winning enough battleground states to secure a majority of electoral votes, even though Harris may win the popular vote or a narrow majority of electoral votes in other simulations.
A scenario in which no candidate reaches a majority in the Electoral College is also a slim possibility, with a 0.3 percent chance. The numbers are based on 40,000 simulations run by the model, reflecting a highly competitive race.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
It’s not enough for Trump to win, he’s got to win big to make it clear he has a mandate.
He has to win by a mile to win by an inch.
Even with that, the dims and their rent a mob types will raise hell.
When was the last time Silver was close on anything?
Seriously, are you kidding? Trump voters are going to stay home because they think he has it in the bag?
You don’t know much about people, do you?
Agreed. I have found over the years people are more inclined to vote if they think they’re voting for a winner. Could just be where we have lived.
The systematic dumbing down of the American populace has progressed further than I thought.
The idiots ofAmerican want one of their own in the Oval Office.
He must win by the margin of DNC cheat plus 1 vote. Bush verses Gore was settled by 537 votes. If you have to crawl over broken glass to vote, do it!
It should be noted their was much fraud in the Florida election. When they had the first machine recount Gore gained thousands of votes. This is statistical bull sh-t. The over under in a machine recount should almost balance each other out. That first machine recount was full of fraud but Bush was still ahead. Then the DNC pulled out the lawfare machine and hanging chads etc. Expect no less this election but relative to Florida, governor DeSantis has cleared out the fraud machine. Thanks DeSantis.
Wasn’t Silver just last week telling people to ignore polling as it shifted to Trump?
And this guy’s claim to fame is forecasting Obama, which anyone with two eyes could have seen. Never been impressive to me, but we shall see. He does have his own ‘rep’ to protect.
Isn’t he one of the original statisticians that created the stats based “MoneyBall” approach for the Oakland As?
Surges?!
Some guy on Fox this morning, going on the Fox poll which has Harris leading by 6 points in the battleground states, went through various scenarios of how the different battleground states might go to one party or the other. Because Nebraska is not winner-take-all and the Democrats have a chance of getting one electoral vote there, one scenario resulted in a 269-269 tie.
Any Trump voter that sits out this election because of the “big cheat” of 2020 are fools. The heavy lifting by Trump and his campaign to remain a viable Presidential Candidate is done.
Now, we need an energized turnout:
“To Run It Up”
“Leave No Doubt”
👍👍👍👍👍
Nate Plastic is bit a polling guru. He’s an aggregator and hack who manipulates polls and outcomes to first shape outcomes and then conform to them.
, simultaneously appearing to be serious and correct neither of which he is.
He’s cultivated quite the grift. It’s like the political fusion of sabermetrics and astrology.
That’s why all the stories “genuine dead heat in our state” and 50.2 to 49.8 in combined swing states.
That is dangerous to the extreme.
Bret Baier today had a story of the outcome in which the proportionate system in Maine which could give one person one electoral vote (not a joke) and the Electoral College 269 to 269 scenario Bret showed on the map could end with a one electoral win or the House of Representatives declaring one of the 269-269 candidates President. Yipes.
50.2 percent is a “head fake”?
You’re joking around, right? :)
50.2
People will see that numbers and say “well he’s safe!! i’ll stay home!”
:)
No.
I actually never imagine that anybody would think, “No need to vote for my candidate since s/he is now up by one percent!”
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