Free Republic

Every August, the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Georgia is accompanied by familiar reflections about missed warning signs, intelligence failures, and a supposedly unexpected turning point in European security. The language has become so standardized that it obscures a far more uncomfortable reality. Georgia did not reveal a new Russia. It exposed a Russia that had been behaving consistently for nearly two decades while much of the West continued searching for evidence that Moscow had fundamentally changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Describing the failure to recognize this trajectory as a collection of mistakes understates what actually occurred....

For four years, Russia has bet on outlasting Ukraine in a war of attrition. Now, as Kyiv’s drones inflict growing damage on both Russia’s army and oil industry, Moscow is finding out that time isn’t necessarily on its side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion force is making ever-smaller gains at the front line, its losses exceed recruitment, and it is struggling to adapt to a Ukrainian drone campaign pounding its supply routes to its forward positions. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s stretched army hasn’t buckled as Russia hoped and is even pushing back the invaders in places with small counterattacks. Its increasingly capable...